Market Updates
August Positions Report
It is worth pointing out that the likely catalyst for the expected top is the start of a recession. The green count coincides with a Q4 recession, while the red count coincides with a Q1 recession. Based on current economic data, as well as inflation data, the odds of a Q3 recession are quite low. So, if the blue count is in play, it will have to be the result of broad market price action picking up on an unforeseen event. Planning for an unknown event is not an investable strategy, as they are rare. However, the vast majority of events occur within a rising rate environment, which does increase the odds that one could happen. In almost all instances, if we go back in time, broad market price action gave advanced warnings of something brewing. For this reason, we put an outsized weighting on price patterns to help manage risk within the current macro environment.
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