Semiconductor Stocks
Broadcom will release its results today. Investors will be closely watching the AI revenue updates. During its last earnings call, the company raised the AI revenue guide to $10 billion for FY2024 from the earlier $7.5 billion.
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This evening, Nvidia effectively pulled a rabbit out of a hat by showing the GPU juggernaut may not need hyperscalers to the degree the market thinks. According to management, “There is sovereign AI, there are regional AIs, there are NeoClouds, there are AI startups at enterprises [...] which represents about half of our business, and that is growing 100% a year.” This helped lead to an even bigger surprise than the current quarter’s beat, which is that Nvidia broke their typical guidance cadence by providing a guide for FY28, stating they will report 70% growth, or about $570 billion, compared to analyst estimates for $691 billion. Below, we discuss the main takeaway from Nvidia’s earnings report, which is that the AI infrastructure buildout is finally broadening beyond Big Tech.
Our latest analysis lays out how we plan to navigate the rest of this bear cycle, along with the technical roadmap to $2 million — a view further supported by what we're seeing across the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, and gold, which together point to a challenging macro backdrop that could ultimately turn favorable for Bitcoin.
In our last broad market report on June 18th, we presented a case for caution, presenting numerous warning signs that we tend to see before a correction, ranging from institutional positioning to numerous divergences within the broad market. The one data point that concerned us most had last appeared in 2024, just before the AI trade saw its biggest correction since the uptrend began in 2022: “The economically sensitive Transportation sector is also flashing the same warning. It’s down about 10% while semiconductors are up 43%. The only other time these two sectors diverged this sharply was July 2024. That divergence marked a one-year top in semis and gave way to a 40% drawdown into the April 2025 low.”
