Market Updates
I only see one more bounce in the S&P 500. Whether that bounce takes us to the 4400 SPX region or towards the 4700 – 5000 SPX region, will not change the likely outcome – any bounce we see will likely get retraced plus all of the 2023 cyclical bull market in 2024.
Sign in with your I/O Fund account to check your plan access.
Our latest analysis lays out how we plan to navigate the rest of this bear cycle, along with the technical roadmap to $2 million — a view further supported by what we're seeing across the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, and gold, which together point to a challenging macro backdrop that could ultimately turn favorable for Bitcoin.
In our last broad market report on June 18th, we presented a case for caution, presenting numerous warning signs that we tend to see before a correction, ranging from institutional positioning to numerous divergences within the broad market. The one data point that concerned us most had last appeared in 2024, just before the AI trade saw its biggest correction since the uptrend began in 2022: “The economically sensitive Transportation sector is also flashing the same warning. It’s down about 10% while semiconductors are up 43%. The only other time these two sectors diverged this sharply was July 2024. That divergence marked a one-year top in semis and gave way to a 40% drawdown into the April 2025 low.”
Big Tech’s AI Capex has stomped estimates for multiple years and analysts are now calling for capex to surge to $1 trillion in 2027. However, hyperscalers have long battled investor concerns around whether billions in spending would translate to the transformative growth they claimed. Recent hyperscaler results show that the needle is beginning to move. Top cloud providers all saw strong growth accelerations in Q2 and noted that demand is outstripping capacity.
