Market Trends
Nothing has changed from last week. We believe the bounce from the October low is a bear market rally, and that we are at the tail end of this rally. The question remains whether the market has topped or has one more push to new highs before petering out.
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Our latest analysis lays out how we plan to navigate the rest of this bear cycle, along with the technical roadmap to $2 million — a view further supported by what we're seeing across the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, and gold, which together point to a challenging macro backdrop that could ultimately turn favorable for Bitcoin.
In our last broad market report on June 18th, we presented a case for caution, presenting numerous warning signs that we tend to see before a correction, ranging from institutional positioning to numerous divergences within the broad market. The one data point that concerned us most had last appeared in 2024, just before the AI trade saw its biggest correction since the uptrend began in 2022: “The economically sensitive Transportation sector is also flashing the same warning. It’s down about 10% while semiconductors are up 43%. The only other time these two sectors diverged this sharply was July 2024. That divergence marked a one-year top in semis and gave way to a 40% drawdown into the April 2025 low.”
Big Tech’s AI Capex has stomped estimates for multiple years and analysts are now calling for capex to surge to $1 trillion in 2027. However, hyperscalers have long battled investor concerns around whether billions in spending would translate to the transformative growth they claimed. Recent hyperscaler results show that the needle is beginning to move. Top cloud providers all saw strong growth accelerations in Q2 and noted that demand is outstripping capacity.
