Inflation data continued to surprise to the upside this week, yet the market is up nearly 3% on this information, as investors contemplate a potential end of the bear market in 2022. Also, while big tech, semis and the S&P 500 made new lows this week, biotech, transportation stocks, many high beta stocks made a higher low. The last time we saw the market shrugging off bad news with this many divergences was in mid-June, just before the last large bear market rally began. In this week’s video we dive into the possible paths this market can take into year-end, while also providing overhead levels where the risk will be high.

The U.S. Dollar is acting like a wrecking ball across global economies, and is one of the primary culprits for the current stock market crash. As the dollar continues to strengthen, other currencies get weaker, which only intensifies global inflation pressures. Once the dollar tops, which foreign central banks may force, expect a rally in equities --- specifically in beaten down growth stocks. Last week we said to expect a rally in equities as the U.S. Dollar is potentially putting in a bigger top, which we are now seeing. This week, we discuss what needs to happen, which will determine if this will be a multi-week rally or a multi-month rally.

Earlier this week, I/O Fund CEO and Lead Tech Analyst Beth Kindig joined Jeremy Owens, Tech Editor, and San Francisco Bureau Chief of MarketWatch, on Barron’s Live. They discussed cloud valuations including those that are trading at 2X above Covid lows, what metrics matter when evaluating cloud companies, and what to watch for in upcoming earnings season --- including a few comments on ad-tech.

We are now moving into the final quarter of the 2022 stock market crash. Below, we outline two scenarios for how the 2022 stock market crash will end. In the first five minutes of this video, we look at the bottom either occurring around the 3550 SPX region (following a minor bounce) or it will bottom in the 3400-3350 SPX before we see a year-end rally.

The FED is fighting inflation but what does this mean for the markets when there is real evidence that inflation is slowing down? In technical analysis from a month ago, we stated that if the market broke below 3920-3900, then odds were high of a continuation of the bear market. Two weeks later, the S&P 500 is trading in the low 3600 range and we have updated our analysis to discuss what comes next in this complicated and frustrating broad market environment.

Nvidia had a big week with GTC 2022 and management is clearly ready to rumble against any excess inventory from crypto mining. The negative catalyst from crypto mining and Nvidia's price action is eerily similar to Q4 2018/Q1 2019 —- yet the company is not the same company it was four years ago. This is apparent by Nvidia flexing some major product muscle by timing it's best-ever gaming release and it's best-ever AI chip to hit the market in October.

Next Week is going to be important. We explain what to favor when a market low is in place and reveals when the next key inflection point and swing pivot will be. Find out what the weekly market signals tell us about the current market outlook and learn about how the I/O Fund approaches de-risking its growth portfolio stocks.

Last June, we discussed key reasons that cybersecurity stocks would hold up particularly well compared to other cloud verticals. The analysis pointed to enterprise spending expected to increase in 2022 from the previous year, according to Chief Information Security Officer (CISO) surveys.