We describe our newsletter as “free,” however the resources required to produce the research behind our weekly analysis are substantial. Delivering early, actionable insights consistently—and making them available to the public—is a deliberate investment by our firm and an approach that remains uncommon in traditional Wall Street research.
While we occasionally highlight individual examples to illustrate accuracy, the broader value becomes clearer when viewed over a full year. Across that period, many of our articles identified complex market inflection points and highlighted companies early in their cycles—long before their performance became evident by a mainstream investor audience.
For example, we offered immense benefit by preparing our readers for a local top in AI stocks in February, ahead of the April rout (reference articles below). Although the value of this has passed, our work in Q2-Q4 has only strengthened our strong 5-year track record. More recently, in Q3, the I/O Fund nailed the Bitcoin top at a time when virtually nobody else was calling it (quite the opposite; we literally challenged “the herd” in our article headline) —this materialized to become an accurate view that continues to play out as soft price action in crypto persists. Given the volatility of this asset class, the value in timing a selloff cannot be overstated.
A few weeks ago, our Q4 series on the AI Monetization Wave defended the AI opportunity by stating the era of monetization has not yet begun; an argument in sharp opposition to growing AI bubble fears. To help illustrate this, we point toward some companies that are quietly monetizing AI into the tens of billions – which is by far, the fastest growth curve the technology industry has ever seen in a 2-3 year time span. Interesting enough, the mainstream narrative is not able to recognize this.
These points, and many more like it, uniquely came from the I/O Fund – and we openly shared them with our readers in 2025. Below, we break down quarter-by-quarter the research we provided to our readers this past year – for free – including some critical research we believe is fully in play as we position for 2026.
I/O Fund’s AI Stock Forecast in Q1 2025: NVDA, SMH & QQQ Sell-off
Predicting the 2025 AI Correction: How the I/O Fund Identified the Peak
The I/O Fund has built its reputation on identifying major market trends before they materialize. In the February feature, ‘AI Stocks Signal a Correction Before a Buying Opportunity Emerges’ Co-Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley warned of rising volatility for 2025. He noted that the market rally lacked broad support, creating a risky divergence in which stocks trend higher even as key sectors fail to reach new highs.
For the I/O Fund, this served as a vital cautionary signal in an overheating market – especially given that the I/O Fund is a leading AI stock portfolio. Two months later, AI stocks sold off heavily with Nvidia stock down (25%), while VanEck Semiconductor ETF was down (22%), and Invesco QQQ ETF was down (17%) in a little over a month after we published the cautionary analysis.
Source:YCharts
I/O Fund’s Nvidia Strategy: Navigating DeepSeek & Blackwell Delays
The I/O Fund closely tracks the supply chain data and monitors the technical levels of stocks to help our premium members make informed decisions. Despite Beth Kindig being a well-established Nvidia bull, her firm took a balanced approach headed into 2025 with yet another warning that the AI leader was likely to trade meaningfully lower due to technical signals. The analysis ‘Where I Plan To Buy Nvidia Stock Next’ provided a buy plan for our readers and stated that Nvidia could trade below $100. The analysis played out, as we were able to buy Nvidia at $87.99, issuing a real-time trade alert that has returned 92% on that tranche since early April.
Most importantly we continued our coverage during the market sell-off caused by DeepSeek fears in our article, ‘DeepSeek Creates Buying Opportunity for Nvidia Stock.’ We reassured our readers that DeepSeek’s cost-efficient AI training is a long-term catalyst for Nvidia stock. We stated, “If DeepSeek’s breakthroughs are truly the key to ushering in a new paradigm of AI training and ultimately AI democratization from cost reductions, it will not be a death sentence for Nvidia; in fact, quite the opposite.” Despite many stating that DeepSeek was a defining moment for AI, and stirring up the panic, the Chinese LLM is hardly spoken of today.
In Q1, a few Nvidia suppliers were providing mixed guidance on the timing of Nvidia’s Blackwell GB200 systems. We published an article, ‘Nvidia Suppliers Send Mixed Signals for Delays on GB200 Systems – What It Means for NVDA Stock’, to help Nvidia investors understand the changes in the supplier commentaries and why Nvidia was likely to take a pause Q1-Q2. Later, we identified Q3 as the likely inflection point for Nvidia, which later became the strongest earnings report in nearly two years.
I/O Fund has a history of buying Nvidia at low prices. The first entry was $3.15 in December 2018, and since then, we have been able to issue buy alerts around major lows – including $10.85 on October 13th, 2022, as well as $94.48 on April 4th, 2025, and again at $87.99 on April 7th, 2025. The I/O Fund discusses key technical levels in our weekly webinars for Advanced Market Signals Tier members.
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Q2: Navigating the AI Stock Recovery After the April Bottom
The I/O Fund Logged 23 buys in March and April of 2025, Including NVDA and ALAB
After the April bottom, AI stocks came roaring back with a vengeance. In tech investing, timing is the difference between average and extraordinary returns. For example, if an investor bought Astera Labs at the beginning of the year, the return would be only 27% compared to buying the stock at the beginning of April would have a staggering gain of 269% (as of today), a difference of 242% within a short period of one quarter. This is exactly what the I/O Fund did, adding to current positions like Nvidia, while also building new positions in four additional lesser-known AI stocks with strong outperformance.
Going back to Astera Labs, we knew that we wanted to own ALAB; however, our system was telling us that we should wait, as the odds were high heading into 2025 that we could get lower prices. We began to layer in at $79.73 on January 27th, when ALAB was more than 45% off its highs. We further issued 4 additional buy alerts, layering in at key levels, completing our accumulation at $51.10 on April 4th. Our system of using technical analysis to layer into a position gave us an 11% position in ALAB with a combined cost basis of $69.42, which made it one of our biggest winners of the year, with a 140% return in 2025.
I/O Fund’s Co-Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley discussed in May that his analysis foresaw the S&P 500 index reaching a new all-time high later in the year in the article, ‘Historic Market Uncertainty Meets $7 Trillion Debt Wall: What Comes Next for the S&P 500.’ Knox utilized a data-driven approach by identifying a bullish shift in the Advance-Decline line –signalling healthy market breadth. He also leveraged Fibonacci levels to gauge the strength of the recovery and along with that, used better-than-expected earnings signals to predict an all-time high later in 2025. Fast forward to December 2025, and Knox’s forecast has become reality as the S&P 500 officially surged to its new all-time high.
AMD Outperformed Nvidia in 2025
In June, AMD offered more details on the release of their groundbreaking GPUs with little fanfare in the markets – which is par for the course as AMD has a history of being forgotten about until the company can no longer be ignored. In the analysis, ‘AMD vs Nvidia: The AI Stock That Could Win by 2028,’ we offered our readers a timely discussion on AMD’s strengths and how thinking AMD is down for the count could be a costly mistake. AMD stock is up 68% compared to Nvidia’s return of 31% during this period, a difference of 37%.
Source: YCharts
Broadcom’s Silent Rise: Building the Backbone of AI Inference
While everyone is focused on the Nvidia stock, Broadcom is quietly cementing its position for the second spot. The company specializes in custom silicon and networking required for the next phase of AI, particularly for the inference trend. Broadcom’s custom XPU solutions provides Big Tech something that AI GPUs can’t: massive cost savings and energy efficiency at scale. We have discussed in depth in our article, ‘This AI Stock is Set to Surge from Inference Demand.’
