The world today was engineered to be ephemeral and noisy. This is a terrible combination for an investor. On Twitter alone, 456,000 messages are sent every minute. On Facebook, 510,000 comments are posted every minute, and 293,000 status updates are made. Outside of social media, 16 million text messages are sent every minute, and 156 million emails are sent.

For an investor, the antidote to noise is quality stock analysis. Due diligence requires dozens of hours per company, and it takes hundreds of hours every year to produce a free newsletter with quality analysis. I/O Fund strives to offer some of the team’s best analysis for free, and we believe the consistency and depth of what we provide for free is hard to replicate. 

We offer this in the most challenging sector for investors, which is, hands-down, the tech sector. The tech sector is unusually challenging because it involves many different verticals – artificial intelligence, crypto, consumer, media, fintech, ad-tech, semis, cloud, and more. It’s also the highest risk and highest reward sector in the market. Due to sudden price movements in both directions, the stakes are high. Perhaps we are biased, but quality analysis can be hard, particularly in the tech sector.

Below, we present you with 10 Timeless Articles You Won’t Want to Miss.

1) Nvidia’s Cuda Moat and Early-AI Thesis from 2018, for Gains of Over 4,160% on Premium Site 

Our firm's AI coverage on Nvidia began with calling Nvidia an AI leader seven years ago! Yes, really.  

In the article published in November 2018 when Nvidia was trading at $4.93; Holding Nvidia Stock Will Pay Off Due to Two Impenetrable Moats,Beth said that “Economic indicators and earnings from tech companies have not exactly warranted this reaction from the market... Nvidia’s outlook is quite the opposite in regards to public-company growth trajectory. The market may continue to have volatility, but Nvidia investors who are patient will be rewarded due to competitive advantages in GPU-powered cloud performance and developer adoption of Nvidia’s platform.”  

Since the free article was published, the stock is up by over 2,600% and our first entry on our premium site is up by over 4,160%* with an entry at $3.15. The stock has now become the Street’s most-followed AI stock. 

Nvidia has firmly established itself as the GPU leader in this AI boom, with CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) serving as its primary moat. The A100 and H100 drove the revenue but CUDA’s software moat is why Nvidia has a near-monopoly in the GPU-driven data center with a 98% market share. Ultimately, CUDA is the primary reason that Nvidia is challenging to disrupt, and Beth pointed this would help the company dominate AI development 7 years ago. She then repeated this thesis 25 times before the Street finally caught on in May of 2023. 

CUDA is a moat because developers are trained to program GPUs on this platform specifically. For a competitor to take market share, developers would have to be motivated to install new drivers, compilers, and to learn new libraries and tools to switch from CUDA to a new, competing programming platform. 

Beth rightly pointed out that Nvidia has established itself as the dominant development platform for AI, a fact that later became increasingly apparent as AI technology matures. In 2018, the Street grew concerned that custom silicon would replace Nvidia’s GPUs, yet Beth pointed out that developers favor Nvidia's GPUs for their ease of use and flexibility compared to custom silicon.  

Here is what she stated in this prescient analysis: 

“Nvidia is already the universal platform for development, but this won’t become obvious until innovation in artificial intelligence matures. Developers are programming the future of artificial intelligence applications on Nvidia because GPUs are easier and more flexible than customized TPU chips from Google or FGPA chips used by Microsoft. Meanwhile, Intel’s CPU chips will struggle to compete as artificial intelligence applications and machine learning inferencing move to the cloud.” 

*Note: Stock gains listed are through Dec 31, 2024 and are updated annually.

2) Nvidia to Surpass Apple’s Valuation from 2021, to Become World's Most Valuable Company 

Beth is known as the Queen of Nvidia, not only for predicting Nvidia would become a dominant AI stock when it was priced below $5, but she clearly set herself apart again in 2021 with a prediction that Nvidia would surpass Apple to become the world’s most valuable company when it was priced at $152.51. 

At the time, this prediction was inconceivable as it would require not only Nvidia to go up more than 350%, but also for the tech leader Apple to plateau. Ultimately, Nvidia went up more than 500% since that call, and is up 900% between Jan 1st 2023 and Jan 1st 2025 while Apple is up 70% in that two-year time frame.  

The I/O Fund took it a step further and bought on the October 13th, 2022 low with a real-time trade alert sent to premium members to buy at $18.51 (corrected to account for stock split). This single buy alert is up an impressive +700%, if held into today’s price . Overall, premium members received nine real-time buy alerts below $20 in 2021 and 2022; learn more about premium here. Notably, this prediction required holding a high conviction through a 60% selloff in 2022. 

The 2021 prediction that Nvidia would surpass Apple’s valuation within 5 five years highlighted Nvidia’s niche in the AI economy and also that Nvidia is not standing still with Ampere Architecture. Beth noted, “Nvidia has a market cap of roughly $550 billion compared to Apple’s nearly $2.5 trillion. We believe Nvidia can surpass Apple by capitalizing on the artificial intelligence economy, which will add an estimated $15 trillion to GDP. This is compared to the mobile economy that brought us the majority of the gains in Apple, Google and Facebook, and contributes $4.4 trillion to GDP. For comparison purposes, AI contributes $2 trillion to GDP as of 2018.” 

3) In 2024, Beth Followed Up on Why Nvidia Was Still a Buy 

To date, Beth has updated her Nvidia thesis thirty times with original insights. In February of 2024, she explained why Nvidia was still a strong Buy, and how Nvidia would surpass Apple two years earlier than her original 5-year prediction in 2021.  

In the analysis, Nvidia Stock Gained $1.5 Trillion To Surpass The FAANGs - Apple Is Next she pointed out that it was not just the consistency and magnitude of Nvidia’s multi-billion-dollar revenue beats, but the expansion of its margins and earnings as revenue grew >200% for multiple quarters as it approached a $90 billion annualized scale. She also highlighted the accelerated product roadmap, which is another reason for the company's stellar returns and futuristic software opportunities.   

4) Prediction: Nvidia Bottomed in Late 2022 

When the market dumped Nvidia stock, with the price cratering 60% in 2022, Beth aptly pointed to the big picture, i.e., the H100 chip opportunity for readers in her September 2022 analysis, Nvidia Stock Is Ready To Rumble With RTX 40 Series And H100 GPUs, during a time when the mainstream media was focusing on an irrelevant crypto mining miss. 

Here is what she said at the height of the selloff: 

“Nvidia had a big week with GTC 2022 and management is clearly ready to rumble against any excess inventory from crypto mining. The negative catalyst from crypto mining and Nvidia's price action is eerily similar to Q4 2018/Q1 2019 —- yet the company is not the same company it was four years ago. This is apparent by Nvidia flexing some major product muscle by timing it's best-ever gaming release and it's best-ever AI chip to hit the market in October.” 

Beth further highlighted that the Hopper architecture represents a significant performance leap over the Ampere architecture. Some of the improvements include Enhanced Algorithm Processing, increased bandwidth and scalability, memory, and performance boost, which all played a key role in capturing the AI demand. For example: 

• NVLink allows connecting eight H100s into a single, powerful GPU with immense processing power and memory bandwidth. 
• 50% more memory and interface bandwidth than the A100, with support for 80GB of HBM3 memory. 
• Approximately 3x overall performance increase over the A100, and up to 6x faster in specific workloads. 

“Where the H100 really stands apart is the leap in performance with about 3X more performance than the A100 and the H100 is up to 6X faster. The A100 lacked support for FP8 compute at default whereas the H100 will leverage a transformer engine to switch between FP8 and FP16, depending on the workload.” 

5) Early Bitcoin Bulls when Bitcoin was trading at $11,156 

I/O Fund published the Bitcoin bull thesis to its readers in July 2019; Will Bitcoin Make a Good Investment? Part 1: Institutional Adoption.  Beth rightly said “There are key reasons as to why bitcoin will make a solid long-term asset over the next five years and may reach its peak as a new technology with mass adoption in seven to ten years. This 3-part series explores why strategically entering the bitcoin market at a good entry price will make a solid investment for the future.”  

The first being institutional adoption, then economic uncertainty, and mobile payments. Since the article was published the shares have risen by over 730% and our first entry, Bitcoin is up by over 1,100%. Interesting enough, it was institutional adoption that became the major catalyst despite famed investor Warren Buffet stating Bitcoin was “probably rat poison squared” around the same time she wrote smart money would become the major, primary catalyst. 

I/O Fund Called the 2021 Top in Bitcoin and the 2022 Bottom 

I/O Fund Portfolio Manager, Knox Ridley, accurately called the top in June 2021. The uptrend in Bitcoin that continued through April and May topped at $64,895, which was the lower end of the listed range. Our firm took heavy gains by cutting the position in half, as outlined in the video and article: “Why the I/O Fund Cut Bitcoin in Half.” 

Nearly 18 months later, in December 2022, Knox provided another prescient update that Bitcoin was bottoming and would rally again when the price was bottoming in the $17,000 range. In the article “Bitcoin is Going to Rally: What You Need to Know” he stated: 

“Yet, there is key evidence that shows how Bitcoin is stronger today than it was during the previous three drawdowns. The reason you don’t want to ignore this is because – despite steep +80% selloffs -- Bitcoin has reclaimed new highs within 3.5 years, every time. Therefore, it’s not only the size of gains Bitcoin has provided which places it as the #1 asset of all-time yet it’s the speed in which this is accomplished that is also remarkable.”

A year later when Bitcoin was trading at $43,600 Knox provided yet another update stating that Bitcoin price will reach $100,000 due to institutional adoption. 

Every Thursday at 4:30 pm Eastern, the I/O Fund team holds a webinar for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock entries and exits. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. Learn more here. 

6) Bitcoin to $100K+ 

Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley provided two crucial updates on the I/O Fund’s game plan for Bitcoin, with his first update from April 2024 increasing the portfolio’s target zones. At the time, Bitcoin was an overlooked asset compared to the over-hyped Mag 7, yet the asset delivered superior returns compared to all of the great large-cap tech stocks in this bull cycle, minus Nvidia, while having a low inverse correlation to tech.  

Utilizing technical analysis and on-chain data in the analysis We Are Raising Our Bitcoin Targets To $106K - $190K, Knox explained that the I/O Fund was now raising its target zones for Bitcoin to $106,000 to $190,000, up from the previous zone of $75,000 to $130,000. Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$60,000 range at the time, with Knox saying that “the $42,750 support region holds on any ongoing volatility, then we have no reason to doubt the uptrend in place.” 

Knox explains why the I/O has been successful in navigating this volatile asset. “Timing is everything. When it comes to timing, our firm has a proven track record of navigating the life-changing bull case that crypto offers while minimizing the volatility associated with different coins – we achieve this via a unique approach combining technical and on-chain analysis to identify major lows and major tops in each cycle.”

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Knox provided another update to the Bitcoin thesis in August 2024 in the analysis, Bitcoin Update: Next Stop $100,000; Bitcoin finally surpassed that historic level as 2024 came to a close. He explained that Bitcoin had “a full corrective pattern in place that ended around $54,000 in early July,” which “suggests we are in the early stages of the next rally.” 

7) Microsoft Stock Outperformance highlighted in 2018 

Our bullish thesis on Microsoft was first developed in 2018. Beth highlighted that Azure would gain market share in Cloud Infrastructure in the article; Here’s Why Microsoft Stock Could Overtake Amazon on Cloud Infrastructure. Microsoft’s market share has increased from 13% to the current 21% and the stock has outperformed both Alphabet and Amazon as seen in the chart below. 

Beth highlighted Microsoft’s Fortune 500 client base and also Microsoft’s acquisition of GitHub to attract developers who play a crucial role in the selection of cloud providers. She further highlighted Microsoft’s strength in the adoption of its products by most companies, which would make the transition easy for the IT department.  

8) Microsoft Azure vs Google Cloud 

We highlighted to our readers in December 2020 that Alphabet will lag Microsoft in the cloud market share in the article; Why It's Too Late for Google Cloud to Overtake Microsoft Azure. Currently, Microsoft has a 21% market share compared to Alphabet’s 12% and Amazon’s 30% at the end of December 2024.  

Beth pointed out that “In our latest Forbes report, we discuss why Google (Alphabet) may have missed a critical window this year for the infrastructure piece. We also analyze how Microsoft directed all of its efforts to successfully close the wide lead by AWS. Lastly, we look at how all three companies will bring the battle to the edge in an effort to maintain market share in this secular and fiercely competitive category." 

9) Netflix: A Hidden Gem

We published a series of articles in 2022 on Netflix during the market sell-off after the company lost subscribers for the first time since 2011 and said that investors need to be patient. During that time, Bill Ackman sold his stake in Netflix for a loss of $450 million within three months of his purchase. Beth highlighted that Netflix is entering the ad-supported market and in July 2022, in another article; Netflix Stock Stronger Than It Seems Following Q2 Earnings, she highlighted the cash flow transformation.  

Beth said, “The most important line item for Netflix is the company’s cash flow. Looking back, this has been troublesome for Netflix as the company lost $3.3 billion in cash in 2019 as it built up its original content pipeline. However, the company is on an entirely new trajectory with $1 billion in free cash flow expected this year and “substantial” free cash flow in 2023, per Netflix management.” 

We provided another update in May 2023; This Stock Price For Netflix Is A “Buy” For 2023 by highlighting the opportunities in password sharing, ad-tier, free cash flow, and by providing a buy plan to our readers. We closed Netflix in April 2024 for a total gain of 150%. 

10) How the I/O Fund Sets a High Bar for Accountability 

Don’t miss the article Verified Returns & Risk Management: A Retail Investor's Imperative.This article discusses the overarching thesis around ways retail investors can get ahead of Wall Street in the complex world of stock investing. For starters, having an actively managed portfolio is where you get the best of both world’s – performance that far exceeds the indexes and ETFs by paying close attention to allocation, (quickly) cutting stocks that do not meet specific criteria, and choosing stocks that have strong, fundamental strength. We strongly believe a more active stance is necessary for long-term tech investing, and this article explains why. 

Logging trades in real-time also places immense pressure on the analysts at the I/O Fund, who are not allowed to simply choose a stock but must also determine the allocation for the stock. After recommending a stock, the analysts must help the portfolio manager actively manage the position, which can change at any time. There is a reason most services do not provide this level of transparency and activity -- as more granularity is offered; more skill is required. 

Another reason the I/O Fund is unique is because it is the only firm that provides audited results to its premium members. We use an auditor from a large firm in San Francisco to mathematically review and verify the performance of our I/O Fund portfolio trading account and crypto account. 

That’s Not All .... 

Our firm has assisted our readers in capturing immense upside from the two top-performing large-cap tech positions in 2023 and 2024 with Nvidia and Bitcoin; the fact we also provided ongoing entries and risk management for these mega-winners cannot be understated in terms of the value we have delivered.  

That’s not all ... on our premium side, we have garnered returns of 131% in four years, with analysis you must not miss on stocks not mentioned here. We reserve our best work for premium members.  

These wins include* 

• We posted returns of 57% in 2023. If we were an ETF, mutual fund or hedge fund, our ranking would be #4 in the Wall Street Journal’s Winners’ Circle ranking of 1,191 funds. 
• In 2023, we had five positions with returns over 100% and seven positions beat the Nasdaq. Many were held at high allocations. 
• The I/O Fund had a 45% allocation to AI going into 2023, one of the highest on record. Today, the AI allocation is higher with many lesser-known names. 
• Issued 9 trade alerts for Nvidia under $20. Provided over 25 analyses on Nvidia’s AI thesis before the market caught on. 
• Nearly impeccable record on Bitcoin, buying between $7K to $10K, trimming at $58K, buying again $15K to $16K for the rally to $100K+. All entries and exits are sent as trade alerts. 
• We were early to the cloud in 2019, then rotated into AI in 2022 with a 45% allocation in 2023. 
• Released an automated hedge in 2022 to stave off losses during a historic selloff in the tech sector. 
• Picked the leading sectors in 2021: semiconductors and blockchain. 
• Picked the two top-performing cloud stocks in 2021 (DDOG and ASAN) 
• Picked the best-performing asset with a large market cap in 2021 (ETH) 
• Picked the best stock in the S&P 500 in 2019 (ROKU) 
• Has beaten other tech-focused funds in every audit since the portfolio’s inception.

*all percentages quoted of the current portfolio stocks are from first entry through 31 December 2024. 

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance, and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own shares of Nvidia and Bitcoin.

Recommended Reading:

• AI Stocks Signal a Correction Before a Buying Opportunity Emerges
• Nvidia Suppliers Send Mixed Signals for Delays on GB200 Systems – What It Means for NVDA Stock
• DeepSeek Creates Buying Opportunity for Nvidia Stock
• The Best of I/O Fund’s Free Newsletter in 2024