Updates
We recently released our returns, which continue to be robust despite the risk-off environment in tech.
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Palantir recently took shots at OpenAI and Anthropic’s business models, implying that they are a part of the “token industrial complex”. As token processing counts soar, OpenAI and Anthropic’s ARR figures are no doubt climbing rapidly. However, Palantir’s model of maximizing value per token, rather than needing to push customers to consume as many tokens as possible, is translating into high quality growth. And, as R&D labs struggle to sniff profitability, Palantir is putting up among the strongest margins in the tech sector.
This evening, Nvidia effectively pulled a rabbit out of a hat by showing the GPU juggernaut may not need hyperscalers to the degree the market thinks. According to management, “There is sovereign AI, there are regional AIs, there are NeoClouds, there are AI startups at enterprises [...] which represents about half of our business, and that is growing 100% a year.” This helped lead to an even bigger surprise than the current quarter’s beat, which is that Nvidia broke their typical guidance cadence by providing a guide for FY28, stating they will report 70% growth, or about $691 billion, compared to analyst estimates for $570 billion. Below, we discuss the main takeaway from Nvidia’s earnings report, which is that the AI infrastructure buildout is finally broadening beyond Big Tech.
Our latest analysis lays out how we plan to navigate the rest of this bear cycle, along with the technical roadmap to $2 million — a view further supported by what we're seeing across the U.S. dollar, Treasuries, and gold, which together point to a challenging macro backdrop that could ultimately turn favorable for Bitcoin.
