In August, the I/O Fund warned that Bitcoin was entering a high-risk phase as global liquidity stalled, and sentiment patterns flashed caution. Since then, Bitcoin has fallen more than -35%. In this article, follow up with the liquidity issues that are roiling risk assets, including Bitcoin. As investors will see, the technical outlook has shifted, increasing risk that a larger top could be in.

The headline that Nvidia could reach a $20 trillion market cap by 2030 will trigger plenty of emotion — it sounds fantastical, full of hype, or like a prediction made far too early in the AI cycle. Yet what I offer you below is a data-driven, fundamentally grounded case for how Nvidia can realistically reach a $20 trillion valuation by 2030. My brand new, updated prediction that Nvidia’s stock will see a $20 trillion market cap is shaped by a few key items: Nvidia’s aggressive 1-year product roadmap, an impenetrable software ecosystem through CUDA, and its evolution into a full-stack AI systems provider encompassing GPUs, networking, cloud-scale platforms, and software. When these elements are modeled together — alongside the rapid expansion in global AI infrastructure capex — the path to $20 trillion becomes less sensational and more a reflection of compounding fundamentals.

AI accelerators such as GPUs and custom silicon need no introduction. Compute has led the AI boom; a trend so powerful, it is displacing the FAANGs of the last decade with Nvidia firmly the world’s most valuable company and infrastructure suppliers like Broadcom has pushed past legacy peers such as Meta in market cap.

Despite how it may seem, modern-day narratives rarely drive market swings. Tariffs, political headlines, niche trends like rare earth materials, or speculation about which company OpenAI partners with next — these stories dominate the news cycle, but they do not reliably move markets, as the consensus believes. If they did, investing would be much easier. The current 2025 stock market rally resembles two major market cycles -- find out what both suggest could be in store for the rest of the year and early 2026.

Less than one-fifth of the U.S. economy is expanding, yet this small segment is growing at such a blistering pace—driven by AI-related spending—that it continues to hold up the rest of the economy. We are living through unprecedented times, with no true historical corollary to today’s economic backdrop. Every cycle feels unique and unparalleled in the moment. What never changes, however, are human emotions and the way the herd responds to periods of greed and exuberance.

Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM) recently announced fiscal Q3 earnings, stating its longer-term AI revenue outlook is stronger than anticipated. The company reported record Q3 revenue of $33.1 billion, which was up by a solid 40.8% YoY and 10.1% sequentially. For Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), the outlook is two-fold. On one hand, TSMC is deepening its moat with advanced nodes, such as N2 and A16. The company already powers tens of trillions in market cap on the stock market when you consider Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, Amazon, AMD and Google are customers of TSMC. Essentially, all mega cap stocks have an AI strategy spanning merchant GPUs and custom silicon, and of course, software – yet the common denominator to these strategies is they all funnel into TSMC. Yet, on the other hand, many pundits have been asking – are we in an AI bubble? While AI leaders, related suppliers and strong R&D teams march onward with exceptional earnings reports, ongoing deal announcements and provide strong commentary that AI demand greatly outstrips supply – investors are left wondering what the true value is for the outsized growth.

Micron’s stock is up 120% YTD – or 3X more YTD than AI heavyweight Nvidia. Recently, the high-bandwidth memory content that Micron supplies has increased 3.5X between GPU generations, leading to a quiet memory boom across DRAM and NAND suppliers. Memory is typically a cyclical industry that is low margin and lumpy, yet memory is seeing a newfound resurgence from AI that is strong enough to transform commoditized hardware into a secular trend as the AI economy is built out. AI servers use more DRAM and NAND than traditional servers, relying heavily on high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for training and inference. We look at how Micron has quietly outperformed some of the biggest players in AI YTD and if its ability to defy the odds can continue.

Palantir leads the AI software pack in terms of strong earnings reports this past quarter as the company achieved significant milestones, the most impressive being US commercial revenue grew 93% YoY and 20% sequentially. You will be hard pressed to find this kind of QoQ growth across AI’s biggest players. There are also robust cash flows and expanding margins to strengthen the story. However, what is this Perfect 10 worth? In fact, Palantir is well beyond a Perfect 10 and is rather a Perfect 100 as its forward P/S sits at an astonishing 104. This means taking FY2025 revenue of $4.2B , it would take over 100 years to pay back its current market cap.