On February 28th, the U.S. went to war with Iran, and the market was handed the kind of shock it hasn't contended with for years. The conflict set off a chain reaction across the region: an ongoing supply disruption in essential commodities, a 30-year Treasury yield pushed to 5.2%, and a CPI print of 4.2%, more than double the Fed's target. By most measures, this was the most uncertain backdrop since COVID.

Neoclouds are one of the more hotly debated AI business models, with CoreWeave and Nebius being the two most widely recognized names. These companies have seen their sales, backlog, and share prices soar. Yet, supporting their growth is extremely expensive, and neoclouds do not have the same cash nor operating cash flow profiles of Big Tech. This is leading neoclouds to employ unique and circular financing structures, raising some red flags.

CPUs have gone from an afterthought to becoming the AI trade’s next great bottleneck – and with AMD, Nvidia, Arm and Intel circling a market that is doubling nearly overnight, the only question left is which company walks away with the lion’s share.

In April, Google announced it would begin selling its TPUs to select third-party data center operators, which is something the market has anticipated for nearly a decade. The TPU-versus-Nvidia-GPU debate has long fueled both bulls and bears; yet it may finally carry real stakes. Google’s announcement is far from a coincidence—it is driven by several converging factors that make now the right moment to move.

AI networking stock Lumentum is among the key I/O Fund winners in 2026. We allocated heavily to LITE in January—a month before Nvidia backed the company. While most investors couldn’t stomach taking a stake in this stock that soared 339% in 2025, I/O Fund built a 9% position that has since paid off in spades. Overall, in just five brief months, our Lumentum position delivered a return of 135.4%, or 6.8X higher than Nvidia’s 19.9% return since the end of January. For investors new to this name, Lumentum recently received significant validation from the world’s most valuable company—Nvidia—with the dominant force in AI infrastructure investing $2 billion in LITE. However, the importance of this goes far beyond the investment itself. The real story is Lumentum’s central position in Nvidia’s multi-year networking roadmap, and the broader AI market, which is affording Lumentum the opportunity to grow its business several times over.

April was the best month in six years for the Nasdaq-100. The single best-performing large-cap stock wasn't Nvidia, Microsoft, or Meta. It was Bloom Energy, up roughly 109% in one month. As you'll recall, we named Bloom our 2026 Top Stock pick on February 27. But our position began a year earlier, with initial buys at $16.64 in April 2025, when we positioned for AI energy as the next bottleneck. Over the past year, Bloom has remained one of our highest-allocations of 10% or higher with real-time trade alerts sent to our Research Members.

Within the AI investment theme, there is nowhere that the supply chain shifts faster than in networking, leading companies to gain content on new platforms or lose incremental share. The reason is straightforward: much of the market is tied to a single customer, Nvidia; and Nvidia is rolling out new architectural iterations at an unusually fast pace. When it comes to networking, two of the most important architectural advancements are the increase in pod and cluster sizes and the transition to 200G per lane.

In this report, we take a deeper look at the technical scenarios, which suggests that Nvidia’s latest high is shaping up to be a potential bull trap. That view is corroborated by the broader semiconductor complex. Specifically, the failure of other key sub-sectors to confirm the move higher.