I’m pleased to share the I/O Fund’s audited 2025 return of 37%, bringing cumulative performance since our May 2020 launch to 326%. This represents a 294% lead versus popular tech ETFs and a 152% outperformance versus the Nasdaq-100 over the same period. Our 2025 equity-only return of 56% would rank approximately #3 when compared against other thematic ETFs. On an annualized basis, the I/O Fund has delivered 29.2% per year, a result that outpaces Wall Street’s most established hedge funds.

Bitcoin rarely rewards narrative-based investors for long. Time and again, it has shown a habit of reversing its dominant trend against the prevailing story of the moment. A large portion of the I/O Fund’s edge has been staying on the right side of Bitcoin’s big turns in both directions by following a process rooted in analyzing sentiment through technical analysis, rather than headlines.

Since November 2021, when the equal-weight Mag 7 Index does not confirm a new high in the S&P 500, it has been a reliable signal of a weakening market environment. A similar divergence is occurring today, with only one Mag 7 – Google – moving to new highs,  offering a warning for the durability of the broader uptrend.

TSMC is one of the least sensational management teams in the AI stocks space, yet management explicitly called AI a multi-year “megatrend” in their most recent earnings call, with demand now being pulled not just by chip designers, but directly by hyperscale cloud providers seeking to lock in capacity.  

Big Tech is expected to invest $530 billion for building AI infrastructure in 2026, while the path to near-term monetization remains a question mark. As investor scrutiny around capital expenditure intensifies, the key question is no longer who is spending the most on AI, but who is translating that spend into measurable revenue and sustainable margins.

Palantir’s stock has defied gravity, delivering steady performance that no other AI software stock has come close to matching (yet). For investors, the Palantir thesis is two-fold: the company must continue to scale its Commercial segment after posting multiple quarters of over 50% growth, while also sustaining a high valuation. Both matters and the bar is undeniably high.

The stock market in 2025 was a high-stakes tug-of-war between geopolitical tensions and the AI trade. Headlines were dominated by the DeepSeek fears, trade wars, tariffs, and persistent whispers of the AI bubble. However, the AI trade proved to be more than just hype; it became a cornerstone of the market.

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