Two years ago, the April 2023 quarter delivered a historic 18% beat, followed by an even bigger 30% beat in July 2023. Compare that to the most recent quarter ending July 2025 — just a 4% beat, the smallest in two years. The narrowing beats combined with a rare QoQ decline in the Compute segment could be interpreted as Nvidia is running out of steam. I disagree with the idea that Nvidia is running out of steam and had the opportunity to speak to a few notable media anchors from Fox Business News and Bloomberg on the topic last week, plus a 45-minute interview on the topic with Maggie Lake of Wealthion. In the media interviews, we discussed some of the most pressing issues that AI investors face – does China revenue matter for Nvidia, how does the world’s most valuable company continue to grow, are we in an AI bubble, and lastly – where is the I/O Fund positioning next.

Our track record including a more recent 600% move in Bitcoin is not the product of hype but of a systematic framework—one built on technical analysis, on-chain metrics, and a close watch on global liquidity conditions. Today, this very process is flashing warning signs, which has us, once again, going against the popular narratives, as we have begun the process of taking gains in Bitcoin and reducing risk. Because of the warnings that our system is picking up on, the I/O Fund partnered with WealthUmbrella to release a free one-hour webinar outlining these risks as well as what we want to see to confirm a potential path higher from here**.** The presentation details the forces that move Bitcoin**,** along with the risk management techniques that enabled us to sidestep the 2021 top and re-enter near the 2022 low. Below are a few highlights from the presentation:

Reddit’s stock has surged 62% in one month, easily placing the company’s earnings report as one of the best to come out of the tech sector this quarter. The world’s leading forum site has only 416 million weekly active users compared to Facebook’s 2 billion yet ranks fifth behind Facebook as the most visited site in the United States. In addition, due to a few changes in how Google surfaces content with AI overviews, Reddit is now the second most visible site in the United States – ranking above Facebook for example - and the top line results show the company is reaping the rewards of being in the search giant’s good favor. Below, we offer a few ways to approach the opportunity that Reddit presents and what an investor should look for to determine if Reddit will continue to be an anomaly in that AI-driven search benefits the social platform (whereas it hurts traffic for most other publishers). The analysis also discusses what to watch for in terms of Reddit hitting peak growth and the catalysts that could drive the stock further.

Last month, after ServiceNow reported second quarter results that exceeded expectations on multiple fronts, shares of NOW rose by 6%. The company is attempting to reposition itself beyond a provider of cloud-based digital workflows to what they are calling “the AI-powered operating system for enterprise transformation.” Yet, the market is cautious as the stock is down nearly 20% YTD and lags other AI software stocks – this analysis looks at the puts and takes weighing on this promising AI stock.

In late 2022, when Bitcoin was trading near $16,000, the I/O Fund issued a Strong Buy Alert. At the time, many of the market’s biggest crypto bulls were silent. Fast forward to today, Bitcoin is up over 600%—and now we are hearing the same aggressive upside targets that we heard years ago prior to Bitcoin’s 70% plunge. In this week’s report, we take a hard look at these exuberant, bullish calls and contrast them with our systematic models that correctly identified the 2021 top and 2022 bottom. While on-chain analysis still supports higher prices—technical and liquidity trends suggest we are entering the final leg of this cycle. If you have any crypto exposure, or are holding large gains in Bitcoin, this is a report you don’t want to miss.

In our last Broad Market Report titled, Historic Uncertainty Meets $7 Trillion Dollar Debt Wall: What Comes Next For The S&P 500, the S&P 500 was trading near 5800 and still well below its February high. We outlined the unique macro risks that were dominating investor sentiment, which were at historic extremes. At the same time, technical signals suggested a path to new all-time highs remained likely. “The market breadth, Q1 earnings beats, and the size of this rally suggest that new all-time highs are likely to follow; however, one cannot underestimate the unique risks within the backdrop of markets.” Since then, the S&P 500 has surged through overhead resistance, validating many of those technical setups. In fact, the market largely ignored the unique macro risks, many of which are still present.

This week, Google cleared a major hurdle with Search accelerating from 10 points of growth last quarter to 12 points this quarter -- putting to rest many doubts that Search monetization is at risk given the popularity of apps such as Chat-GPT with 600 million active users (and counting). After hours, the stock was flat given Google's current capex spend would take nearly 5 years to pay back at Google Cloud's current growth rate. However, while the puts and takes caused a neutral reaction, one risk remains for Google that all tech investors should not overlook. While the market has been distracted by Search and Google Cloud, there is one key area where Google has lost major real estate that remains the predominant concern. I've dug this up for you below.

When it comes to AI cloud leaders, Oracle is not often mentioned, yet the company is quickly positioning itself to lead among Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet when it comes to cloud growth over the next few years. For the upcoming fiscal year, Oracle guided for a 20-point acceleration in Cloud IaaS growth to >70%, driving a 16-point acceleration in overall Cloud growth to >40%. Supporting its long-term growth is robust RPO momentum, its recent 4.5 GW expansion with OpenAI and its $30 billion/year cloud deal starting in FY28. Below, I break down Oracle’s FY26 AI cloud acceleration, Stargate economics, and bull, base and bear case scenarios that assess if Oracle has what it takes to become the next $1 trillion AI stock.