The world today was engineered to be ephemeral and noisy, with tens of millions of posts, comments, and messages sent across social media and messaging apps every minute of every day.  

For an investor, this noise is a terrible combination, and we believe the antidote to noise is quality stock analysis. Due diligence requires dozens of hours per equity, and it takes hundreds to thousands of hours every year to produce free research and a paid platform with institutional quality analysis.  

The I/O Fund strives to offer some of the industry’s best analysis for free alongside our premium content, and we believe the consistency and depth of what we provide for investors is hard to replicate in the most challenging sector for investors -- tech.  

Below are highlights from our free newsletter and premium research site during a strong year for AI and crypto. Although numerous investor favorites rose more than 100% during the year, many other popular tech stocks declined significantly. We offered our readers clues and insights for the leading stocks in AI semiconductors and software, providing unparalleled depth and quality with full transparency into our own trades in real-time. 

While calling out Nvidia’s AI thesis at $3.15 in late 2018 for our free readers with gains of over 4,000%* is one of our most notable calls, the I/O Fund strives to offer unparalleled quality in its analysis each week sent straight to your inbox – sign up here. 

1) Nvidia to Surpass Apple’s Valuation 

Right out the gate in 2024, the I/O Fund’s free newsletter expanded on Lead Tech Analyst Beth Kindig’s highly regarded 2021 prediction that Nvidia would surpass Apple’s valuation within 5 five years; which at the time, this prediction was inconceivable as it would require not only Nvidia to go up more than 350%, but also for the tech leader Apple to plateau. Ultimately, Nvidia went up more than 500% since that call, and is up 900% between Jan 1st 2023 and Jan 1st 2025 while Apple is up 70% in that two-year time frame.

Kindig explained why she would deliver on this prediction a whole 2 years early in the February 2024 analysis, Nvidia Stock Gained $1.5 Trillion To Surpass The FAANGs - Apple Is Next. In the analysis, she pointed out that it was not just the consistency and magnitude of Nvidia’s multi-billion dollar revenue beats, but the expansion of its margins and earnings as revenue grew >200% for multiple quarters as it approached a $90 billion annualized scale.  

From Kindig’s August 2021 prediction to the February 2024 update, Nvidia posted some staggering growth numbers, such as 676% growth in data center revenue, 240% growth in total revenue, 400% growth in quarterly EPS, and a 20% expansion in operating margin. 

The I/O Fund provided a handful of reasons that would propel Nvidia to quickly become the world’s most valuable company. This included the long runway for AI accelerators, citing forecasts that the market will reach $400 billion by 2027 – with Nvidia taking the lion’s share. An additional reason Kindig provided was Nvidia’s accelerated product roadmap to a one-year release cadence, which let the stock continue to pry away Big Tech capex spending of $200 billion. She also pointed out the software opportunity beckons to extend Nvidia’s runway, already reaching a $1B+ run rate. These tailwinds combined with a valuation that was “eerily low” at the time given the stock’s rapid ascent through 2023. 

The I/O Fund’s ongoing consistency and accuracy on this stock dating back to 2018 for up to 4,000% returns with the first entry at $3.15 has been unparalleled – more recently, premium members received nine real-time buy alerts below $20 in 2021 and 2022; learn more here. 

2) Pinpoint Accuracy for Risk Managing Bitcoin to $100K+ 

In 2024, Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley provided two crucial updates on the I/O Fund’s game plan for Bitcoin. His updates are watched with anticipation from our free readers as he previously nailed Bitcoin’s top at $58,000 and then nailed Bitcoin’s subsequent bottom at $16,500.  

His first update last year was in April 2024, where he increased his target zones. At the time, Bitcoin was an overlooked asset compared to the over-hyped Mag 7, yet the asset has delivered superior returns compared to all of the great large-cap tech stocks in this bull cycle, minus Nvidia, while having a low inverse correlation to tech. 

Utilizing technical analysis and on-chain data in the analysis We Are Raising Our Bitcoin Targets To $106K - $190K, Ridley explained that the I/O Fund was now raising its target zones for Bitcoin to $106,000 to $190,000, up from the previous zone of $75,000 to $130,000. Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$60,000 range at the time, with Ridley saying that “the $42,750 support region holds on any ongoing volatility, then we have no reason to doubt the uptrend in place.” 

Ridley provided another update to the Bitcoin thesis at the end of July 2024 in the analysis, Bitcoin Update: Next Stop $100,000; Bitcoin finally surpassed that historic level as 2024 came to a close. He explained that Bitcoin had “a full corrective pattern in place that ended around $54,000 in early July,” which “suggests we are in the early stages of the next rally.” 

The I/O Fund had systematically been accumulating since the start of this cycle while raising our critical supports along the way -- below is the history of Bitcoin buy alerts that the I/O Fund issued to our subscribers in real-time since early 2023. 

Source: I/O Fund 

Notably, our firm assisted our readers in capturing immense upside from the two top-performing large-cap tech positions in 2023 and 2024 with Nvidia and Bitcoin; the fact we also provided ongoing entries and risk management for these mega-winners cannot be understated in terms of the value we have delivered. To refer our newsletter to your friends and family, please click here. 

3) Top Crypto Company Allocation Increased Ahead of Election to #1 Position 

To find out the stock ticker of the “Top Crypto Company,” subscribe to our premium service.

Given the I/O Fund’s strong track record with technical analysis to predict Bitcoin’s moves, the team was able to identify a top crypto stock on the public markets to add to the I/O Fund’s portfolio in September. This was partly due to the stock having a high correlation with Bitcoin.

We first added this stock in September as Bitcoin showed signs of playing into the I/O Fund’s analysis where the leading crypto asset would see a move to $100,000, up from the high $50,000 range at the time.  

Following the election, The Top Crypto Company stock became the second highest performer in the exuberant-led rally of early November. It was the I/O Fund’s largest allocation at the time with the team locking in gains of 82% and 111% in a brief few months. 

The team highlighted the company’s diversification including a Layer 2 offering and opportunities in derivatives as potential catalysts. The company also has a large cash reserve, which is rare for tech stocks with its market cap.  

4) Palantir’s Revenue Acceleration 

In December 2023, the I/O Fund outlined four cloud stocks set to see revenue accelerate in 2024, with Palantir one of the four. We had said that Palantir was “exhibiting multiple signs of acceleration heading into 2024 with an improved fundamental backdrop driven by increasing AI demand. Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is driving a significant acceleration in its US commercial business, while underlying metrics and the bottom line are rapidly improving: Palantir posted its first GAAP profitable quarter in February and has since reported four consecutive GAAP profitable quarters.” 

We explained that “revenue growth is poised to accelerate in Q4 and through 2024, boosted by AI demand, a reacceleration in Palantir’s US government segment, and continued strength in the US commercial segment stemming from [AIP].”

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Palantir continued to blow past expectations through 2024 -- Q4 revenue capped off a strong year as Palantir beat its own guidance by nearly $60 million, with revenue growth accelerating 6 points to 36%, coupled with strong margin expansion, cash flow generation, and large net new customer additions in its key US commercial segment.  

Palantir’s shares ended 2024 as the S&P 500’s best performer with a 341% return. 

5) Meta to Outperform  

In the January 2024 analysis, Social Media Stocks: One Metric Shows Meta’s Clear Leadership, the I/O Fund pointed out what separated Meta as a clear social media leader and why other social media apps would struggle with monetization. Since then, Meta shares have risen 82%, while Snapchat has declined -37%. 

We explained that Meta was much more efficient with spending, maintaining R&D spending below 40% of gross profit while significantly improving operating margin and driving ad pricing and impressions growth, whereas Snapchat was “spending around 80% of its gross profit dollars on R&D... while failing to increase ARPU and monetization within its user base.” 

We pointed out that what makes Meta a clear leader is that “it can maintain a high level of R&D spend … while remaining a cash cow with strong operating cash flow and free cash flow growth,” with OCF margin nearing 60% in Q3 2023 and OCF tracking for 50% YoY growth to $75 billion in 2023. 

In a follow-up analysis in March 2024, Top 3 Ad-Tech Stocks For 2024, we said that Meta’s “key metrics [were] supporting a return to >40% operating margin for the full year and a possible >33% net margin, driven by increasing ad pricing, strong engagement trends and impressions growth, aided by the release of numerous AI features.” Meta ended 2024 with a 42.2% operating margin, a 37.9% net margin, and a 55.5% operating cash flow margin. 

Stay on the leading edge of AI with I/O Fund’s high-performing tech portfolio, which had 10 positions outperform the Nasdaq-100 in 2024, many held at high allocations, and we are prepping for a strong 2025. Learn more here 

6) Key Metric Acceleration in AI Software Stock for 96% Gains 

To find out the stock ticker of the “AI Software Stock,” subscribe to our premium service. 

The I/O Fund recorded gains up to 96% on this AI-exposed software stock in 2024, with its February 2024 earnings report showing acceleration in a handful of key metrics, supporting our conviction that this stock would capitalize on the opportunities of bringing AI to the edge. 

This company’s management team dropped hints that AI would gradually become a more meaningful driver of revenue as workloads shift from training toward inference, supported by strong growth in key metrics and key platforms.  

Key metrics and margins continued to improve in the August 2024 earnings report, with some strong growth metrics for its AI platform. The I/O Fund fully closed the position in December 2024 to lock in gains for the year, as a soft guide and valuation concerns rose to the forefront after its November 2024 earnings report. 

7) Amazon’s Cloud Acceleration 

In the February 2024 analysis AI Driving Acceleration For Big 3 Cloud Stocks, the I/O Fund discussed how AI was impacting cloud growth at Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet. For Amazon, the I/O Fund explained that in Q4 2023, “AWS finally accelerated in Q4 for the first time in 2 years, with Amazon reporting 13.2% growth in Q4, up just over 1 point from Q3’s 12%.” However, the more important metric was AWS’ operating leverage improving in the second half of 2023, with operating income growth at 3x the rate of revenue in Q4 2023. 

At the time, AWS was generating the majority of Amazon’s company-wide operating income (67% of 2023) due to its higher operating margin (27% in Q4 2023), which we had said was “a trend that can strengthen with AI driving accelerated customer and revenue growth and decreased costs.” This has played out, with AWS reporting a 37.8% operating margin in Q3 2024 and 36.9% in Q4 2024. 

What the I/O Fund had seen in February 2024 was a combination of increased customer migrations, larger and longer duration contracts, increased incremental revenue QoQ, and opportunities to better monetize the suite via AI. These factors were the necessary ingredients for AWS to show “a sustained AI-driven acceleration,” even though its quarterly growth rates lagged Azure and Google Cloud. AWS growth has now re-accelerated to 19%. 

In a follow-up article in May, Amazon Stock: Nearing $2 Trillion Club From AWS Growth & Ads Catalyst, we provided evidence that AWS was a primary contributor to Amazon’s push to the $2 trillion milestone -- growth from AI quickly reached a multi-billion dollar run rate, while improvements in operating leverage at AWS aided Amazon’s bottom line. 

8) Best-of-Breed Cybersecurity Stock Closed for 93% Gain 

The I/O Fund is no stranger to the cloud sector, having selected some of the sector’s top names in 2021 in Asana and DataDog. This best-of-breed cybersecurity stock greatly piqued our interest in late 2023 as the company became GAAP profitable; a rare feat for cloud.  

We noticed a few encouraging signs of growth in key metrics in late 2023, and predicted that by late 2024, this stock would have a positive GAAP operating margin, which would be seen as a breakthrough moment. As a result, this stock entered 2024 as one of our larger allocations. 

The March 2024 earnings report showed a continued sequential expansion in GAAP operating margin and a strong acceleration in a major key metric. Despite reporting another quarter with positive operating margin and strong growth metrics in June 2024, the I/O Fund saw trouble ahead with the stock’s high valuation, and closed this position in July 2024, recording approximately a 93% gain. The stock later plummeted over 40% in a month due to a high-profile security hack with the I/O Fund able to side-step these losses and lock-in gains before the sudden reversal. 

9) Explosive Growth in “AI Server Maker” for Triple-Digit Gains 

To find out the stock ticker of the “AI Server Maker,” subscribe to our premium service. 

The I/O Fund identified one of the few darlings of the AI trend in 2023, introducing this stock to our premium readers in May 2023 and calling out its growth potential from AI servers. The I/O Fund analyst team was early to identify the tremendous upside in the stock due to a doubling of its AI revenue from about $12B to $25B --- and beat the Street to this conclusion.  

This stock reported strong sequential and YoY growth in its December 2023 quarter in late January, with the I/O Fund adding for a final time as guidance once again seemed to be conservative. However, some red flags began to appear, and we later closed the position after digging deeper when it became apparent the company would need to continue to raise cash to fund growth. The stock later became the subject of auditing issues, and the team was able to side-step this by risk managing the position.  

Starting in February 2024, we issued 7 sell alerts, fully exiting the position by May 2024 to log an average gain of over 275% on this position alone, which we held at a high allocation within our portfolio. 

10) I/O Fund Reports 131% Cumulative Returns Through 2023 Due to Leading AI Allocation 

In April 2024, the I/O Fund announced returns of 57% in 2023 as seven positions beat the Nasdaq-100, bringing its cumulative returns to 131% since inception. This compares to popular tech ETFs that have cumulative returns of (-10%) in the same time period for an outperformance of 141% in less than four years. 

If you had invested $10,000 with the I/O Fund’s picks versus other all-tech portfolios at inception, the difference would be a portfolio value of $23,052 with IOF versus $8,982 with institutional tech-focused portfolio. The difference in value is 157%. 

Impeccable timing on Nvidia and other AI stocks led to the I/O Fund having one of the highest allocations to AI on record at 45%, and this high allocation was timely as it allowed us to beat Wall Street to the explosive trend of AI. Previously, our firm was early to cloud in 2019, then rotated into AI in 2022. For more on the I/O Fund’s official 2023 returns announcement, read more here: The I/O Fund Catapults to 131% Cumulative Returns. 

For 2025, the I/O Fund has worked to identify key Nvidia suppliers with Blackwell on deck to ramp significantly, sharing our in-depth research on the AI networking stack. Sign up to join our upcoming webinar, held every Thursday at 4:30 pm EST, where we discuss buy zones for the stocks we cover. Learn more here. 

*Stock returns are calculated through December 31st, 2024 and are updated annually. 

Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the company’s portfolio. We then share that information with our readers and offer real-time trade notifications. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance and it is not financial advice. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis. Beth Kindig and the I/O Fund own shares in NVDA and Bitcoin at the time of writing and may own stocks pictured in the charts. 

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