The world today was engineered to be ephemeral and noisy, with tens of millions of posts, comments, and messages sent across social media and messaging apps every minute of every day.
For an investor, this noise is a terrible combination, and we believe the antidote to noise is quality stock analysis. Due diligence requires dozens of hours per equity, and it takes hundreds to thousands of hours every year to produce free research and a paid platform with institutional quality analysis.
The I/O Fund strives to offer some of the industry’s best analysis for free alongside our premium content, and we believe the consistency and depth of what we provide for investors is hard to replicate in the most challenging sector for investors — tech.
Below are highlights from our free newsletter and premium research site during a strong year for AI and crypto. Although numerous investor favorites rose more than 100% during the year, many other popular tech stocks declined significantly. We offered our readers clues and insights for the leading stocks in AI semiconductors and software, providing unparalleled depth and quality with full transparency into our own trades in real-time.
While calling out Nvidia’s AI thesis at $3.15 in late 2018 for our free readers with gains of over 4,000%* is one of our most notable calls, the I/O Fund strives to offer unparalleled quality in its analysis each week sent straight to your inbox – sign up here.
1) Nvidia to Surpass Apple’s Valuation
Right out the gate in 2024, the I/O Fund’s free newsletter expanded on Lead Tech Analyst Beth Kindig’s highly regarded 2021 prediction that Nvidia would surpass Apple’s valuation within 5 five years; which at the time, this prediction was inconceivable as it would require not only Nvidia to go up more than 350%, but also for the tech leader Apple to plateau. Ultimately, Nvidia went up more than 500% since that call, and is up 900% between Jan 1st 2023 and Jan 1st 2025 while Apple is up 70% in that two-year time frame.
Kindig explained why she would deliver on this prediction a whole 2 years early in the February 2024 analysis, Nvidia Stock Gained $1.5 Trillion To Surpass The FAANGs – Apple Is Next. In the analysis, she pointed out that it was not just the consistency and magnitude of Nvidia’s multi-billion dollar revenue beats, but the expansion of its margins and earnings as revenue grew >200% for multiple quarters as it approached a $90 billion annualized scale.
From Kindig’s August 2021 prediction to the February 2024 update, Nvidia posted some staggering growth numbers, such as 676% growth in data center revenue, 240% growth in total revenue, 400% growth in quarterly EPS, and a 20% expansion in operating margin.
The I/O Fund provided a handful of reasons that would propel Nvidia to quickly become the world’s most valuable company. This included the long runway for AI accelerators, citing forecasts that the market will reach $400 billion by 2027 – with Nvidia taking the lion’s share. An additional reason Kindig provided was Nvidia’s accelerated product roadmap to a one-year release cadence, which let the stock continue to pry away Big Tech capex spending of $200 billion. She also pointed out the software opportunity beckons to extend Nvidia’s runway, already reaching a $1B+ run rate. These tailwinds combined with a valuation that was “eerily low” at the time given the stock’s rapid ascent through 2023.
The I/O Fund’s ongoing consistency and accuracy on this stock dating back to 2018 for up to 4,000% returns with the first entry at $3.15 has been unparalleled – more recently, premium members received nine real-time buy alerts below $20 in 2021 and 2022; learn more here.
2) Pinpoint Accuracy for Risk Managing Bitcoin to $100K+
In 2024, Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley provided two crucial updates on the I/O Fund’s game plan for Bitcoin. His updates are watched with anticipation from our free readers as he previously nailed Bitcoin’s top at $58,000 and then nailed Bitcoin’s subsequent bottom at $16,500.
His first update last year was in April 2024, where he increased his target zones. At the time, Bitcoin was an overlooked asset compared to the over-hyped Mag 7, yet the asset has delivered superior returns compared to all of the great large-cap tech stocks in this bull cycle, minus Nvidia, while having a low inverse correlation to tech.
Utilizing technical analysis and on-chain data in the analysis We Are Raising Our Bitcoin Targets To $106K – $190K, Ridley explained that the I/O Fund was now raising its target zones for Bitcoin to $106,000 to $190,000, up from the previous zone of $75,000 to $130,000. Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$60,000 range at the time, with Ridley saying that “the $42,750 support region holds on any ongoing volatility, then we have no reason to doubt the uptrend in place.”
Ridley provided another update to the Bitcoin thesis at the end of July 2024 in the analysis, Bitcoin Update: Next Stop $100,000; Bitcoin finally surpassed that historic level as 2024 came to a close. He explained that Bitcoin had “a full corrective pattern in place that ended around $54,000 in early July,” which “suggests we are in the early stages of the next rally.”
The I/O Fund had systematically been accumulating since the start of this cycle while raising our critical supports along the way — below is the history of Bitcoin buy alerts that the I/O Fund issued to our subscribers in real-time since early 2023.
Notably, our firm assisted our readers in capturing immense upside from the two top-performing large-cap tech positions in 2023 and 2024 with Nvidia and Bitcoin; the fact we also provided ongoing entries and risk management for these mega-winners cannot be understated in terms of the value we have delivered. To refer our newsletter to your friends and family, please click here.
3) Top Crypto Company Allocation Increased Ahead of Election to #1 Position
To find out the stock ticker of the “Top Crypto Company,” subscribe to our premium service.
Given the I/O Fund’s strong track record with technical analysis to predict Bitcoin’s moves, the team was able to identify a top crypto stock on the public markets to add to the I/O Fund’s portfolio in September. This was partly due to the stock having a high correlation with Bitcoin.
We first added this stock in September as Bitcoin showed signs of playing into the I/O Fund’s analysis where the leading crypto asset would see a move to $100,000, up from the high $50,000 range at the time.
Following the election, The Top Crypto Company stock became the second highest performer in the exuberant-led rally of early November. It was the I/O Fund’s largest allocation at the time with the team locking in gains of 82% and 111% in a brief few months.
The team highlighted the company’s diversification including a Layer 2 offering and opportunities in derivatives as potential catalysts. The company also has a large cash reserve, which is rare for tech stocks with its market cap.
4) Palantir’s Revenue Acceleration
In December 2023, the I/O Fund outlined four cloud stocks set to see revenue accelerate in 2024, with Palantir one of the four. We had said that Palantir was “exhibiting multiple signs of acceleration heading into 2024 with an improved fundamental backdrop driven by increasing AI demand. Palantir’s Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) is driving a significant acceleration in its US commercial business, while underlying metrics and the bottom line are rapidly improving: Palantir posted its first GAAP profitable quarter in February and has since reported four consecutive GAAP profitable quarters.”
We explained that “revenue growth is poised to accelerate in Q4 and through 2024, boosted by AI demand, a reacceleration in Palantir’s US government segment, and continued strength in the US commercial segment stemming from [AIP].”
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Palantir continued to blow past expectations through 2024 — Q4 revenue capped off a strong year as Palantir beat its own guidance by nearly $60 million, with revenue growth accelerating 6 points to 36%, coupled with strong margin expansion, cash flow generation, and large net new customer additions in its key US commercial segment.
Palantir’s shares ended 2024 as the S&P 500’s best performer with a 341% return.
5) Meta to Outperform
In the January 2024 analysis, Social Media Stocks: One Metric Shows Meta’s Clear Leadership, the I/O Fund pointed out what separated Meta as a clear social media leader and why other social media apps would struggle with monetization. Since then, Meta shares have risen 82%, while Snapchat has declined -37%.
