In a world flooded with information, investors face an overwhelming amount of noise. Quality stock analysis is the key to cutting through the clutter. At I/O Fund, we provide in-depth, free investment research—focused on the high-risk, high-reward tech sector, including AI, crypto, fintech, and semiconductors. Our expert insights help investors navigate market volatility with confidence. Stay ahead with our best analysis, designed for those who seek real value in a fast-moving market.

In our mid-October 2024 broad market report, we highlighted that a breakout above 5825 on the S&P 500 could push the index into the 6000–6185 range—contingent on holding support at 5675, which it did. Since then, the market peaked at 6147 and remains near its October levels. However, key sectors and stocks have failed to participate in the rally, and bond market reactions to the Fed’s aggressive rate-cut plans remain concerning. Legendary investors like Stanley Druckenmiller and Peter Lynch emphasize analyzing markets over economic forecasts to anticipate major market moves. Our intermarket analysis, which helped us identify the end of the 2022 bear market, now signals a potential market top. Additionally, semiconductor stocks—historically a leading indicator of volatility—remain well below their highs, suggesting broader market weakness ahead.

Key Nvidia suppliers are providing mixed guidance on the timing of Nvidia’s Blackwell GB200 systems. The commentary is subtle, and it would require knowing this stock thoroughly to identify the change in tone. To put it simply, if Blackwell GB200s were ramping, we would see strong sequential growth for Q1. At the very least, there would be some indication Q2 is setting up for strong growth, and yet the commentary is shifting toward a second half discussion.

Cloudflare shares spiked last week following Q4 earnings despite an underwhelming Q1 and 2025 guide that came in slightly below expectations, as multiple key metrics supported management’s commentary for a revenue reacceleration in 2025. Below, I break down the most important metrics from the report and what it means for growth for Cloudflare as AI inference takes the stage. The I/O Fund recently entered five new small and mid-cap positions that we believe will be beneficiaries of increased AI spending after Big Tech projected capex of $320B+ for 2025. Advanced members received real-time trade alerts for each trade. Take advantage of our limited-time promotion for $50 off monthly Advanced plans – learn more here.

Palantir’s Q4 report exceeded expectations, driving shares past the $100 mark with a massive beat and raise. The launch of AIP just six quarters ago has fueled a remarkable 23-point revenue acceleration, solidifying Palantir’s position as a leader in AI-driven growth. Compared to rivals like Snowflake and MongoDB, Palantir continues to dominate in AI revenue expansion. With Q4 revenue hitting $827.5 million—far surpassing forecasts—Palantir’s trajectory signals a strong path toward sustained high growth.

DeepSeek shook the market to start the week, sending AI heavyweight Nvidia down 17% on Monday, wiping out $600 billion in market cap, while other AI hardware names fell up to 30%. This is enough to make any investor panic, and it boiled down to one mission-critical question – did the model’s release fundamentally rewrite the AI capex story? The market’s readthrough is that Big Tech has now been overspending on AI. However, The I/O Fund believes that readthrough is wrong, it’s not that the United States is overspending; it’s that we will accelerate spending to stay ahead. In this analysis, I provide evidence that DeepSeek is not the black swan that killed Nvidia overnight, and touch base on what investors should keep an eye on price-wise moving forward for Nvidia. The I/O Fund recently entered five new small and mid-cap positions that we believe will be beneficiaries of this AI spending war. We discuss entries, exits and what to expect from the broad market every Thursday at 4:30 p.m. in our 1-hour webinar. Learn more here.

Big Tech’s earnings are just around the corner, with Microsoft and Meta kicking the season off on January 29th. The upcoming December quarter reports will offer a glimpse into AI spending trends to close out 2024 and an initial view for 2025, where Microsoft has already penciled in at least $80 billion in spending for AI-enabled data centers compared to $62 billion originally estimated. Analysts had initially estimated capex of ~$200 billion for Big Tech in 2024, an increase of ~30% YoY. In the first half of 2024, Big Tech spent nearly $104 billion, a 47% YoY increase. Through Q3, that sum had surged to $170 billion, up 56% YoY. Our latest checks suggest that Big Tech is on track to spend at least $236 billion in capex in 2024, 18% higher than analyst estimates and representing YoY growth of more than 52%.

Ethereum has long been the frontrunner in decentralized apps (dApps) and blockchain innovation, but its scalability challenges have left the door open for competitors like Solana. Launched in March 2020, Solana has surged over +28,000% since its debut, compared to Ethereum’s +1,500%, offering a faster, more efficient alternative through its unique Proof of History (PoH) protocol. This protocol enables Solana to process up to 65,000 transactions per second without sidechains, making it a superior layer 1 solution in terms of speed and security. With Ethereum’s shift from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS) addressing some scalability issues but raising concerns about centralization, Solana continues to push ahead, supported by innovations like the upcoming Firedancer upgrade, which promises to boost transaction speeds to over 1,000,000 per second. While the broader adoption of blockchain remains in its early stages, Solana’s advancements position it as a compelling contender for long-term layer 1 dominance.