My coverage on Nvidia as an AI leader began in 2018 (yes, really – five years ago). Since then, I’ve covered the AI microtrend for this specific stock 27 times on my research site, which is the equivalent of a novel.

The mega-cap stocks that are known as FAAMG reported earnings recently. These names are driving the market higher, especially Microsoft and Apple. In fact, the percentage of Microsoft and Apple’s combined weighting in the S&P 500 has never been higher.

Investors looking for the “next big thing” will point toward companies like Stripe, Sofi or Square as the leading fintech stocks. Meanwhile, the next big thing to disrupt the financial sector may be sitting in plain sight. Apple grew its cash trove through legendary design and hardware, yet how Apple chooses to leverage its enormous reserve of cash may be what writes the next chapter for the world’s most valuable company.

In April of 2022, Netflix surprised the markets by reporting its first subscriber loss in nearly 10 years. The stock tumbled 35% the following day, as investors panicked. Famed hedge fund manager, Bill Ackman, immediately sold his entire stake in Netflix for a $400 million loss, only after holding it for just over three months.

Amidst the growing skepticism in our banking sector, we thought it would be helpful to introduce an alternative way to both protect and diversify one’s assets. The information below discusses a method the I/O Fund uses to hold its cash, which is safer than banks, and yields 5% or higher.

Two months ago, we wrote that after realizing gains of 31%, it was time to take a time out on Tesla at the $208.31 price when our firm stated: “Right now, our technical analysis is at odds with our fundamental analysis, which is often good news, as it means we will be afforded a lower entry on a stock position we plan to build.”

The recent decoupling of Bitcoin from equities, we believe, is the start of a new uptrend that appears to be inversely correlated to the financial sector. The financial media would have us believe that the current banking crisis is mostly US centric, and localized to regional banks. However, as we look at various charts from these banks, a different story emerges. This is not just a US problem, and it is not limited to regional banks. As more and more investors realize their deposits, once again, may not be safe, we should see an increase in Bitcoin’s demand, which is supported by the on-chain and technical analysis provided below.

Actively managed portfolio and research site announces its largest cumulative lead over institutional all-tech portfolios. The I/O Fund defies a challenging market, outperforming peers and providing innovative tools to level the playing field for retail investors.

Following last quarter’s earnings, we published an analysis on cloud that showed hyperscalers were slowing (5%) sequentially and best-of-breed was slowing (12%) sequentially, based on Q4 guides.

The tech giant reveals cutting-edge AI advancements, a powerful cloud based Omniverse platform, and strategic collaborations in the automotive industry.

Experts pay attention to FOMC meetings in order to help navigate the financial markets and their positions with more confidence. Our FOMC meeting cheat sheet will help equip you with everything you need to know about the Federal Reserve's key decisions and how they may impact your investments.

The bear market is not over. This has been our probable thesis since the start of 2023. With the 10-year rates breaking out to new highs, and on-going inflation reports showing a re-acceleration under the headline numbers, it was apparent that the FOMC would need to raise the terminal rate to further fight stubborn inflationary pressures. This realization marked the February top, which has since been intensified by the unforeseen collapse of two large regional banks.

Last year, the I/O Fund encouraged our readers to let go of the idea that picking good stocks could save a portfolio in the tech industry and to instead fully embrace risk management tools. We pivoted to playing defense rather than offense. Those who watch team sports will understand this transition well, as the strategy changes from attempting to make money (or make a goal) to a strategy that prevents losses (or prevents a goal).

For an investor, the antidote to noise is quality stock analysis. Due diligence requires dozens of hours per equity, and it takes hundreds of hours every year to produce a free newsletter with quality analysis. I/O Fund strives to offer some of the team’s best analysis for free, and we believe the consistency and depth of what we provide for free is hard to replicate.

Last August, Nvidia had a $2.5 billion revenue miss due to gaming and crypto mining related weakness. This caused the stock to selloff (8%) in one day. Many pundits were questioning if Nvidia could overcome the gaming segment weakness given Ethereum’s Merge to Proof of Stake would permanently reduce demand for gaming GPUs.

Earlier this month, Google’s stock (Alphabet) tumbled 7% when chatbot Bard was unable to complete a search with 100% accuracy. During a demonstration, Bard returned incorrect information about which telescope was the first to take pictures of a planet outside the Earth’s solar system. This was a minor mistake given how far large language models and generative AI has come, rather it was the timing that was a bit flawed as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, the chatbot powering competitor Microsoft Bing, had been dominating headlines since its November 30th launch.

 The stakes are high for Tesla's stock because if the margins remain healthy, the stock will do quite well. However, if the margins contract, then the bears will be in control. This is a big moment for Tesla, as high average sales price has been a contentious issue for meeting its addressable market. Wall Street will want to see it's possible to do both --- serve a wider total addressable market (TAM) with more affordable prices while maintaining a healthy bottom line.

We update the new developments in Bitcoin’s price patterns as well as the on-chain metrics that we tend to see around historic lows. We will also take a look at the fundamental thesis surrounding Bitcoin’s utility, and why a globally indebted economy coupled with structural inflation will only benefit from Bitcoin.

Ad-tech stocks across the board had a tough year last year. Investors are hoping that 2023 will be a better year, yet according to the projected ad spend for 2023, this may not be the case.

In late November, we warned our readers that December could be a volatile month. The recent bounce in January also provided some warning signs, which we used to get defensive.

Last week, I joined Samuel Burke from Real Vision to discuss “3 Ideas.” We discussed why I see Nvidia as the #1 AI stock also why cloud is weaker than it appears.

In this analysis, rather than prognosticate on the top stocks of 2023, we think it’s more productive to go back and review the stocks that performed well under new macro conditions in 2022. This exercise helps to inform tech portfolios for the upcoming year as investors can reasonably assume 2023 will look more similar to 2022 than the preceding years.

CrowdStrike has one of the better fundamental profiles out of the cloud category. This is due to its 50%+ revenue growth rate, GAAP operating margin of (7%) and free cash flow margin of 31%. The company also has one of the best Rule of 40 numbers in the cloud category at 89%.

Sentiment continues to show some of the most bearish readings we’ve seen since the 2022 bear market began. The AAII, which is a survey that asks investors if they are bullish, neutral or bearish 6 months out, just gave us the lowest reading of bulls since the October low. Recently, only 24% of those surveyed are expecting bullish results over the next 6 months. Compared with the March low in 2009, this is not too far off that reading, which came in at around 19%.

Nearly all cloud companies are reporting a notable, sequential slowdown between Q3 to Q4. Amazon and Microsoft’s cloud infrastructure services slowed from mid-30 percent growth in prior years to 24 percent growth and 30% growth. Only a quarter ago – in Q2 – the growth was at 29 percent and 35%. This quarter marks a 5 percent decline sequentially, which is considered a rapid decline for these two companies.

Bitcoin is the best performing asset of our lifetime. Given the history of Bitcoin’s awe-inspiring returns shown below, the single most important question for every investor in the market today is if this gravity-defying asset can do it again. The Bears want you to focus on the -77% bear market, as they have for all of the four major drawdowns Bitcoin has experienced.

In October, we talked with Jeremy Owens of MarketWatch on a Barron's podcast about the consumption model versus the subscription model. With Snowflake reporting this week, it's a good time to revisit the differences. Across cloud reports, Snowflake reported one of the highest rates of variability between Q3 and Q4 from 67% growth to an estimated 50% growth in Q4. This is likely due to the lumpiness of the consumption model. After reading through the report

The new Ada Lovelace architecture uses 76 billion transistors and a 4nm production process. In the keynote, the CEO stated: ‘Nvidia engineers worked closely with TSMC to create the 4N process optimized for GPUs. This process let us integrate 76 billion transistors and over 18,000 CUDA cores, 70% more than the Ampere generation.’

Last week, the market went through one of the largest intraday swings since the bear market began in 2022. Since then, we have reclaimed that high. The question is: what does this mean for the market in the long term?

Capitulation seems to be taking hold in many tech stocks, specifically in the SaaS/Cloud space. The market has been trained to look to tech, specifically FAANGs, as the sector to lead. However, what is likely happening is a seismic rotation into new leaders, as fear and a dwindling growth outlook has money fleeing to safety and quality. We dive into what this means for tech in the coming bounce?