Since calling the Bitcoin bottom near $16,000 in late 2022, the I/O Fund has maintained a disciplined, contrarian approach — issuing 13 buy alerts before Bitcoin surged above $100,000. Now, signs suggest the current bull cycle may be nearing its final stage. Despite pro-crypto news headlines and ETF momentum, our technical and on-chain indicators point to rising risk and the possibility of a major top. In this article, we explore why it may be time to reduce exposure and how disciplined risk management can protect gains before the next volatile phase begins.

As the S&P 500 reaches a key bounce target, troubling signs in bonds and consumer behavior suggest this market rally may be on thin ice. I/O Fund’s Knox Ridley explains why volatility may intensify and how the correlation between stocks and bonds is breaking in a way we haven’t seen in decades.

Rising tariffs are injecting significant uncertainty into the stock market, triggering daily volatility and forcing analysts to revise earnings estimates. Our Q1 preview dives into the potential impact on key sectors like consumer electronics (especially Apple), autos, and Big Tech, revealing how supply chain disruptions and potential price hikes could reshape the market landscape.

Tesla’s stock is now facing a recalibration of expectations after Q1’s delivery report missed by a wide margin. Q1’s analyst consensus has gone from $25.98B at the start of the year to $23.97B in early March, to now $21.54B following Tesla’s delivery report. These sharp revisions beg the question - is this enough? This analysis drills deeper into the current analyst expectations for Tesla and what to expect in Q1’s report below.

In early 2025, as markets rallied to new highs, we warned that divergence across key sectors signaled a looming correction. Now, with all major indexes in a technical bear market and bond market dysfunction escalating, we explore why the Fed may not be able to prevent deeper losses — and how investors should position for what’s next.

Late in 2024, Oracle outlined an ambitious plan to nearly double its revenue by fiscal 2029, hinging on long-term growth in enterprise AI and cloud spending. Oracle sets itself apart from its hyperscale peers with its ability to provide low-cost, ultrafast AI compute, winning a key role in the massive Stargate AI infrastructure project over the next four years. Despite surging RPO and billions of potential revenue from Stargate, Oracle's AI story has not inspired confidence. Cloud revenue is already on track to miss its FY25 target provided just one quarter ago, and analysts are wary of management's growth acceleration targets.

In 2024, I/O Fund posted a 35% return, significantly outperforming popular tech ETFs, which recorded an 8% return over the same period. On a cumulative basis, the results translate to a remarkable 219% outperformance compared to competing tech portfolios. The I/O Fund outperformed the S&P 500 by 109% and outperformed the Nasdaq-100 by 82%. In 2024, the I/O Fund returned 35%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 11% and the Nasdaq-100 by 10%. Since inception, the I/O Fund has maintained a lead of up to 219% over institutional technology portfolios.

Retail investors face significant disadvantages in the stock market, often underperforming institutional investors by a wide margin. Studies show that high-frequency trading firms dominate market activity, creating extreme volatility that disproportionately impacts individual traders. As the I/O Fund prepares to release its 2024 returns—proving our firm has outperformed both indexes and top Wall Street funds—we examine the critical need for verified returns and risk management strategies to help retail investors succeed.