Blogs -Autonomous Vehicles: Fact vs. Fiction at CES 2019

Autonomous Vehicles: Fact vs. Fiction at CES 2019


January 17, 2019

author

Beth Kindig

Lead Tech Analyst

Robot dogs from Continental prove that autonomous vehicle hype has gone too far. At CES 2019, Continental announced a way to automate last mile-delivery without requiring a human. This is where the robot dogs come in. The company’s official statement was, “With the help of robot delivery, Continental’s vision for seamless mobility can extend right to your doorstep. Our vision of cascaded robot delivery leverages a driverless vehicle to carry delivery robots, creating an efficient transport team.”

https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/e9148416-58fa-4878-b1f3-7be621a889b4_robot-dogs-AV-CES-2019.png?auto=compress,format

Virtual Representation of Autonomous Vehicles with AI Robots. Source: Continental

The problem with robot dogs, and many other AV gimmicks, is that the industry is not talking truthfully about what where we are with AV and what it will take to put an advanced AVs on the road. This is harmful to consumers who mistakenly believe autonomous vehicles are available for purchase and already on the road today. In fact, 71% of respondents around the world believe they can buy an AV – yet there is not one AV on the market. The top three brands that consumers mistakenly believe distribute self-driving cars include Tesla (40%), BMW (27%), and Audi (21%). It’s also harmful to investors who expect AV technologies to be profitable in the near term of two to three years.

CES is one of the world’s major marketing events where autonomous vehicles were first hyped. The main stage, the keynotes, the sessions, the booths, the competition between rival companies – all of it pushed for bigger and better car demos. Which is why CES is the perfect platform for the announcement of PAVE, which stands for The Partners for Automated Vehicle Education. PAVE is a new coalition that will help educate the public and policymakers about the potential of automated vehicles. Audi, Aurora, Cruise, GM, Mobileye, Nvidia, Toyota, Waymo and Zoox have joined the coalition, which has a central focus on education and safety – and also a focus on more credible information. As stated by Mark Del Rosso, President of Audi America, “Traditional automakers and newcomers are investing billions of dollars in the technology that will make automated vehicles possible. PAVE recognizes the need to invest in public information – in making sure consumers and policymakers understand what’s real, what’s possible, and what is rumor or speculation.”

Just the Facts: Level 2 Automation at CES 2019

Level 2 automation is a reference to the six levels of autonomous vehicles published by SAE International, and adopted as the industry standard for discussing the various stages and evolution of autonomous vehicles. Level 0 is no automation and Level 5 is full automation without a human driver and does not have brakes or a steering wheel. We are at Level 2 right now and the industry is experiencing notable delays in deploying Level 3.

(NOTE:  I’ve published extensively on an autonomous vehicle bubble due to investors pouring money into AV technologies that won’t commercially deploy for many years. You can access the analysis on GM herethe analysis on Tesla here and the analysis on how autonomous vehicles are creating a bubble here).

Below are a couple of the more important (and realistic) announcements from CES that will deploy in the very near future.

Nvidia

Nvidia placed emphasis on gaming this year at its Sunday CES press conference with the announcement of the RTX 2060, whereas it has been Nvidia’s tradition to focus on autonomous vehicles (and data center technologies) at the CES press conference. One day later, on Monday at CES, Nvidia launched DRIVE AutoPilot, which will improve advanced driver assistance features, such as enabling lane changes, pedestrian and cyclist detection, parking assist, and personal mapping. This improved automation strengthens the Level 2 vehicles we see on the road today.

Intel

Intel had a showy display that included a Gotham City themed BMW X5 equipped with large screen TVs, projectors, sensors and haptic feedback. Visual distractions aside, the real news from Intel at CES is the company’s ongoing focus on China. Intel did not officially state they are redirecting their efforts from the United States to China, however, the announcements speak for themselves:

  • Mobileye, Beijing Public Transport Corp. and Beijing Beytai Collaborate to Bring Autonomy to China’s Public Transportation
  • 2019 CES: Great Wall Motors, Mobileye Join Forces to Deliver ADAS and Autonomous Driving Solutions in China and Beyond
  • Intel and Alibaba Team on New AI-Powered 3D Athlete Tracking Technology Aimed at the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020

My newsletter subscribers get this information first. Sign up here.

This is in addition to a hard-to-miss announcement back in July that Baidu was partnering with Mobileye on their Apollo vehicle. At CES 2019, Baidu had on display the successful implementation of Mobileye’s Responsibility Sensitivity Safety (RSS) in the simulation engine of Apollo (I personally tried out the simulator).

https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/c4aa3141-95d4-42c7-9a12-a5e9a5df3bcd_Baidu-was-partnering-with-Mobileye-ces-2019.jpg?auto=compress,format

Baidu Spokesperson at CES discussing Data-Centric Innovation

It’s important to note that China is not immune to the issues the industry faces in advancing from Level 2 automation to Level 3 automation. China, too, is idling at Level 2 (apologies for the pun). For instance, Great Wall Motors released a statement at CES 2019 that “GWM hope to integrate Mobileye’s solutions into its vehicles. Starting with L0-L2+ within the next three to five years, the companies are also exploring opportunities for Mobileye’s Level 3 products.”

Baidu and Mobileye have both made promises to deliver Level 3 by 2019 and Level 4 autonomy by 2021. These dates were announced in 2017 but there has been no recent updates as to the estimated delivery for L3 – including at CES this year.

Mercedes Benz

The best AV investments over the next three to five years will come from companies who are taking baby steps towards a better and safer driving experience. Mercedes-Benz is one company making the most of Level 2 partial automation by announcing a new CLA class. The CLA class is a more tech-driven option with augmented reality for navigation, and an Interior Assistant that understands indirect voice commands and operational gestures. (Read my analysis on how we have reached a tipping point for AI-powered assistants here). An example of this is when a driver reaches over in the seat, and lights automatically illuminate the area. You can also set a command such as “navigate me home” or ask the voice assistant something complicated like “find child-friendly Asian restaurants nearby with 4-star rating which are neither Chinese nor Japanese,” which was one example given in the demo.

https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/4496250b-0272-4446-8a47-6640cd8e5155_Mercedes-Benz-CLA-class-ces-2019.png?auto=compress,format

New Autonomous Vehicle Mercedes Benz CLA class. Source: TechCrunch

Takeaway:

Nvidia and Intel had a different tone at CES this year in regards to autonomous vehicles. Nvidia’s launch of DRIVE AutoPilot is a smart strategy to boost sales in the short term while the AV future of Level 3 or Level 4 sorts itself out. The Mercedes CLA class is another great example of a strong Level 2 automation strategy. Intel is clearly betting on China, especially Baidu, although China is not immune to the difficulties of how to get a machine to react like a human. Notably, there was no Level 3 follow up from Baidu at this year’s CES despite promises for arrival in 2019 (although the year is young).

Regardless of make or model, AVs are stuck at Level 2, and there are too high of expectations as to when advanced AV will turn a profit. Therefore, the AV market will struggle as the delivery of reliable and safe automation continues to see delays. Nvidia, Intel and Mercedes are a few companies preparing for the slow down, and I’m betting we will see others do the same this year.

head bg

Get a bonus for subscription!

Subscribe to our free weekly stock
analysis and receive the "AI Stock: 5
Things Nobody is Telling you" brochure
for free.

More To Explore

Newsletter

Visual representation of stock market volatility and uncertainty in Q1 2025 due to rising tariff concerns and global trade tensions.

The Impact of Tariffs on the Stock Market: Q1 Preview

Rising tariffs are injecting significant uncertainty into the stock market, triggering daily volatility and forcing analysts to revise earnings estimates. Our Q1 preview dives into the potential impac

April 25, 2025
Aerial view of Tesla's new Model Y Juniper parked in lines. Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.

Tesla Stock Faces Recalibration of Growth Expectations

Tesla’s stock is now facing a recalibration of expectations after Q1’s delivery report missed by a wide margin. Q1’s analyst consensus has gone from $25.98B at the start of the year to $23.97B in earl

April 17, 2025
The bond market could break the stock market in 2025, as explored in ‘The Fed Can’t Save This One’ article.

The Fed Can’t Save This One: Why Bonds May Break the Stock Market in 2025

In early 2025, as markets rallied to new highs, we warned that divergence across key sectors signaled a looming correction. Now, with all major indexes in a technical bear market and bond market dysfu

April 11, 2025
Silhouette illustration of Larry Ellison, Oracle's CTO and executive chairman.

Oracle Stock Outlook: Revenue Could Double by FY2029, yet Targets Seem Lofty

Late in 2024, Oracle outlined an ambitious plan to nearly double its revenue by fiscal 2029, hinging on long-term growth in enterprise AI and cloud spending. Oracle sets itself apart from its hypersca

April 04, 2025
I/O Fund reports a 210% cumulative return, surpassing top tech ETFs and institutional portfolios with a 35% gain in 2024. Source: YCharts and InsiderMonkey.

I/O Fund Reports 210% Cumulative Return -- Ranking Above Wall Street's Best

In 2024, I/O Fund posted a 35% return, significantly outperforming popular tech ETFs, which recorded an 8% return over the same period. On a cumulative basis, the results translate to a remarkable 219

March 31, 2025
Chart showing retail investor losses compared to institutional investors, highlighting market volatility and the impact of high-frequency trading.

The Harsh Truth: Retail Investors Take the Brunt of Market Losses

Retail investors face significant disadvantages in the stock market, often underperforming institutional investors by a wide margin. Studies show that high-frequency trading firms dominate market acti

March 28, 2025
NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPU unveiled at GTC 2025, revolutionizing AI and HPC with unprecedented efficiency and power.

NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra Fuels AI & HPC Innovation, Efficiency and Capability  

NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell Ultra GPU, unveiled at NVIDIA GTC 2025, is transforming AI acceleration and high-performance computing (HPC). Designed for the “Age of Reasoning,” these cutting-edge GPUs del

March 21, 2025
Illustration of a futuristic AI data center featuring NVIDIA’s GB200 Superchip

NVIDIA’s GB200s for up to 27 Trillion Parameter Models: Scaling Next-Gen AI Superclusters

Supercomputers and advanced AI data centers are driving the AI revolution, enabling breakthroughs in deep learning and large-scale model training. As AI workloads become increasingly complex, next-gen

March 21, 2025
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang discusses AI market dominance at GTC 2025, addressing demand concerns and future growth projections.

Nvidia CEO Predicts AI Spending Will Increase 300%+ in 3 Years

Nvidia has traversed choppy waters so far in 2025 as concerns have mounted about how the company plans to sustain its historic levels of demand. At GTC, Huang threw cold water on many of the Street’s

March 20, 2025
Natural gas pipelines supporting AI data centers as energy demand surges, with Texas and Louisiana emerging as key hubs for AI infrastructure growth.

Why Gas Pipelines Are the Unsung Heroes of AI Data Center Expansion

Natural gas is emerging as the backbone of AI data center expansion, with demand expected to reach up to 6 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. As AI-driven infrastructure surges, data centers are turn

March 19, 2025
newsletter

Sign up for Analysis on
the Best Tech Stocks

https://bethtechnology.cdn.prismic.io/bethtechnology/e0a8f1ff-95b9-432c-a819-369b491ce051_Logo_Final_Transparent_IOFUND.svg
The I/O Fund specializes in tech growth stocks and offers in-depth research for Premium Members. Investors get access to a transparent portfolio, a forum, webinars, and real-time trade notifications. Sign up for Premium.

We are on social networks


Copyright © 2010 - 2025