Robinhood Stock: Spot Crypto Volumes May Lead to Incoming Volatility

Robinhood stock is one of the year’s best performers, up an astounding 145% YTD and as much as 187% from its lowest close in April. The company continues to progress towards its goal of creating the world’s number one financial ecosystem including an all-in-one investment app with the potential to launch its own stablecoin.  

Robinhood’s stock is significantly outperforming the broader indices both YTD and since April. Source: YCharts. 

Despite the ‘super app’ vision and diversification into new products and markets, Robinhood stock’s growth profile today is tied to three core levers: net interest revenue, crypto, and options trading.  

Being first to market for lower friction crypto offerings for consumers is at the heart of Robinhood’s strong stock move YTD, suggesting it will play a crucial role in its long-term vision. Robinhood has many long-term catalysts, yet its high reliance on crypto could create near-term volatility as spot market volumes have stalled in Q2.  

Robinhood Stock’s High Reliance on Crypto to Drive Revenue Growth 

Crypto was a key factor in Robinhood reaching its first $1 billion revenue quarter in Q4, capitalizing on Bitcoin’s major push to the six-digit level. Robinhood has signaled its intent to diversify its offerings, but it remains a primary near-term revenue driver. As a result, Robinhood stock’s growth hinges on a strong crypto market stemming from its high reliance on crypto transaction revenues.  

In Q4, crypto contributed more than 35% of Robinhood’s total net revenue, as a 455% surge in trading volume drove a 733% YoY surge in transaction revenue to $358 million. This made crypto Robinhood’s largest revenue stream in the quarter. 

In Q1, crypto contributed more than 27% of total revenue, as transaction revenue doubled YoY to $252 million. Compare this to 2023, where each quarter, crypto contributed between 5% to 10% of total revenue with quarterly revenues below $40 million. 

Robinhood’s crypto transaction revenue and trading volume declined quite sharply on a sequential basis in Q1, which could lead to more volatility for HOOD stock. 

Crypto trading volume and transaction revenue are no longer as tightly correlated as they once were in 2021. Now, Robinhood is seeing much higher transaction revenue on lower volume, and much more volatile swings in revenue. These >$100 million swings in revenue in a quarter will lead to more volatility for the stock.  

Due to this volatility, management intends to diversify within and outside of crypto: “we're diversifying the business outside of the crypto business, which will make us less reliant on crypto transaction volumes. But also within crypto, there's going to be diversification over time. So crypto itself will diversify and be less reliant on transaction volumes in the future.” 

While this is certainly an ideal goal to have, other revenue streams are not yet mature enough or high-growth in nature to offset >$100 million swings in crypto. For example, net interest revenue growth will rely on growth in margin used, and overall interest revenue growth was just $36 million YoY in Q1. The Gold subscriber base also is not large enough to smooth out crypto-driven volatility at less than $40 million in revenue per quarter.  

Looking ahead, softening crypto market volumes could set up softer stock price action for Q2, presenting a headwind to growth should it drive a >$100 million sequential decline in crypto transaction revenue.  

Spot Crypto Volumes Waning in Q2 

Spot market volumes slipped nearly (12%) MoM to $1.28 trillion in April, before rebounding to $1.47 trillion in May, according to data from The Block. For June, spot market volumes dropped more than (27%) MoM to $1.07 trillion, with daily exchange volumes fading since mid-May.  

Global crypto spot market volumes declined (27%) MoM to $1.07 trillion in June, the lowest level since last fall, which could weigh on Robinhood stock. Source: The Block 

On a quarterly view, this data implies spot market volumes in the region of $3.82 trillion for Q2. This marks a (31%) QoQ decline from $5.54 trillion in Q1. 

Quarterly spot market volumes declined more than (30%) sequentially to approximately $3.82 trillion in Q2. Source: The Block 

For Robinhood, crypto trading volume was $8.3 billion in April and $11.7 billion in May. Assuming June mirrors the spot market and declines around (30%) MoM, this would imply monthly volume of $8.2 billion. On a quarterly view, this implies Q2 volumes of ~$28.2 billion, down nearly (39%) QoQ.  

Although crypto trading volumes rebounded in May, Robinhood may be on track to see a (39%) QoQ decline in trading volume in Q2. Source: Robinhood 

Although Robinhood’s crypto transaction revenue growth has outpaced trading volume growth in each of the last five quarters, the company is not immune to declining market activity. Volumes are waning across the spot crypto market through Q2 and this dynamic is likely to weigh heavily on crypto revenue in the quarter. 

How Crypto Trading Volume Trends in Q2 2025 Impact Robinhood’s Stock 

This sequential decline in crypto trading volume could negatively impact Q2’s revenue. Should average take rate remain around 0.5% in Q2, in line with the previous couple of quarters, Q2’s crypto transaction revenue would be approximately $141 million based on June’s estimated volume.  

Assuming mid-single digit sequential growth in net interest revenue to ~$305 million on strong deposits and margin use, 10% sequential growth in options revenue, and $160 million in equity and other revenues combined, this would project Q2 revenue out to $870 million. 

Current analyst estimates are in the region of $900 million for Q2, so this would calculate out to a more than (3.3%) miss. Though there is a chance that Robinhood could outperform the spot market in June, the degree of the market’s decline implies that there is a much narrower path to revenue upside for Q2.  

Acquisition of Bitstamp Boosts Robinhood’s Crypto Volume, Institutional Presence but not Revenue 

Robinhood closed its acquisition of Bitstamp in early June, building upon its quest to expand both internationally and up the value chain to institutional clients. Bitstamp will help boost Robinhood’s trading volumes by unlocking Robinhood’s first institutional crypto business. Additionally, Robinhood’s new perpetual futures offering in the EU will be routed through Bitstamp’s exchanges, offering another lever for volume to grow in the future. 

Robinhood paid $200 million in cash for Bitstamp, which reportedly generated $95 million in TTM revenue through April 2025 with 5,000 institutional and 50,000 retail clients. Bitstamp also recorded trading volume of ~$72 billion from July 2024 through April 2025, per The Block. This is just over 50% of Robinhood’s retail-driven $140 billion in trading volume over the same period.  

Bitstamp’s volume tracked the broader market in Q2, falling more than (30%) QoQ from ~$26.8 billion in Q1 to ~$18.7 billion in Q2. June was the softest month in the quarter, declining (20%) MoM to $5.2 billion.  

Based on estimated revenue and trading volumes, it’s likely that Bitstamp’s average take rate is slightly above 0.10%, versus 0.03% to 0.04% for Coinbase. At that estimated take rate, Q2’s revenue is likely in the region of $20 million, or slightly over 2% of Robinhood’s revenue and just a fraction of retail-driven transaction revenue. However, the closing date of the acquisition means Q2 impact will be minimal at best. 

This mimics trends seen at Coinbase, where institutional investors drove 80% of trading volume in Q1 but less than 8% of transaction revenue due to lower fees. Down the road, even if Bitstamp can drive quarterly trading volumes above $30B+, its revenue contribution and impact to growth is likely to be overshadowed by higher-fee retail transactions.   

Robinhood’s Quest to Create a Fintech & Crypto Super App 

Robinhood’s ultimate goal is to create a global fintech ‘super’ app, an all-in-one investment platform offering 24/7 trading of crypto, equity tokens and more with cross-chain bridging and self-custody of assets. Robinhood’s array of crypto announcements at its June 30 event and expansion of perks offered to Gold subscribers support this super app vision: 

Crypto Staking: Robinhood is launching crypto staking for eligible US customers, beginning with support for Ethereum and Solana; staking is available to EU and EEA customers.  

Crypto Rewards Credit Card: Robinhood’s Gold Credit Card already offers US customers 3% cash back on purchases, but this fall Robinhood will allow cash back rewards to purchase crypto automatically. Coinbase has a similar product with Coinbase Card, a prepaid Visa debit card that offers crypto rewards instead of cash back. 

Perpetual Crypto Futures Launch: Robinhood is launching perpetual crypto futures in the EU, providing customers continuous access to futures with up to 3x leverage.  

Cortex for Crypto: Robinhood’s AI-powered investing assistant Cortex will be available for crypto later this year, offering insights, trends and market analysis to Gold subscribers for different tokens.  

Limited-time Crypto Deposit Boost: Robinhood announced a limited time 2% crypto deposit boost for US and EU customers, in an aim to grow its crypto AUM. Robinhood noted some success with its recent 2% brokerage transfer match, with high engagement, large balances and low payback periods for these new customers.  

Smart Exchange Routing: Robinhood will soon be using fee tiers for smart exchange routing, where crypto transactions are sent to the best exchange to get the best available price. With fee tiers, the more customers trade, the lower fees they will pay. 

While it is far too early to see the impacts of equity tokenization, crypto staking and other new features, Robinhood has seen robust initial momentum for recent releases over the past few quarters. It’s fair to assume this will continue for new releases given brand loyalty and constantly increasing value for subscribers. 

On Q1’s earnings call, Robinhood outlined strong initial momentum for Q4 and Q1 product releases, including futures contracts and prediction markets. The company is demonstrating an ability to quickly drive product adoption, which is likely to persist for its newest and upcoming releases.  

For example, Robinhood said futures contract trading is accelerating, with 4.5 million contracts traded in April, more than the entirety of Q1. This was likely driven by increased market volatility and larger intraday swings in the markets. Additionally, prediction markets witnessed more than 1 billion contracts traded over the past two quarters. Management noted that the two new products were each already contributing around $20 million in ARR.  

Robinhood’s Equity Tokenization Push with Arbitrum  

While Robinhood has been a trailblazer when it comes to democratizing investing with zero-commission trades, it arguably made a larger splash at the end of June with its equity tokenization push. This deepens Robinhood’s presence in crypto, especially considering the company is aiming to launch its own Layer 2 blockchain to support equity tokens in the future.  

At its To Catch a Token event on June 30, Robinhood unveiled that it was launching more than 200 Robinhood Stock Tokens, essentially blockchain-based derivatives tracking popular US stock and ETFs such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and more. Robinhood launched the tokens on Arbitrum, though Robinhood ultimately plans to host the tokens on its own Layer 2 blockchain built on Arbitrum’s network.  

The new Stock Tokens expand access to the US financial markets to EU users, offering 24/5 trading availability (soon 24/7 with Bitstamp) and liquidity. The tokens can be traded with minimal fees, just a 0.10% FX fee on the executed trade amount, and still pay dividends to holders.  

US regulatory oversight remains in the works, as the SEC has not yet unveiled a framework for tokenized securities. However, the agency appears optimistic about tokenization, with Chairman Paul Atkins stating that tokenization is “imminent” and the SEC must focus on how to advance innovation in crypto. As such, the tokens are only available for EU users at the moment. 

OpenAI’s Warning Highlights Challenges of Tokenizing Private Companies 

Robinhood’s stock token move already stirred up some controversy -- OpenAI cautioned consumers that the tokens are not real equity in the private startup, and that it did not endorse or partner with Robinhood on the launch. OpenAI’s warning highlighted the challenges of offering an ‘equity’ token in a private company and how ‘ownership’ would work, considering private equity is typically illiquid with funding rounds sometimes few and far between. 

In Robinhood’s case, here’s how the tokens are structured: 

“The stock tokens are legally classified as derivatives under the EU’s MiFID and MiCA frameworks and are not direct representations of equity ownership. Instead, they are backed by traditional custody arrangements, typically a U.S. broker, that facilitate token issuance and redemption through a mint-and-burn mechanism designed to mirror price exposure to the underlying asset. 

Valuation of the tokens tied to private companies remains a more complex issue, hinging on negotiated secondary market trades often limited to institutional or high net worth participants.” In the case of the OpenAI tokens, these were “enabled by Robinhood’s [$1 million] ownership stake in a special purpose vehicle.”  

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev took to X to clarify that “while it is true that [OpenAI and SpaceX tokens] aren’t technically “equity” (you can see the precise dynamics in our Terms for those interested), the tokens effectively give retail investors exposure to these private assets.” 

Theoretically, it is simpler for the stock tokens to track public companies as these can be backed by equity, although tokens may not correlate with stock prices 100% of the time. While Robinhood is aiming to bring private equity to everyday investors, the complexity of tracking private equity in a day-to-day fashion like public equities is a significant challenge.  

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• Robinhood’s recent push and lead in a new market projected to be worth trillions over the next decade. 
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• How Robinhood is increasing utility for subscribers and what it means for growth. 
• The risks ahead from Robinhood’s valuation and slowing growth.