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Divergences Point Toward Market Moving Higher (Technical Analysis)
Divergences are important to track. There is always a leading market that can provide advanced warning that a top or bottom is ahead. For example, from the COVID low in 2020 through February of 2021, all major global indexes were moving up together. When you see an all-encompassing trend, it tends to be a powerful one, much like we saw into early 2021.
Sentiment and Divergences are Pointing Up
The stock market continues to power higher on the heels of bad news. We are up over 6% since the CPI reading signaled that inflation is stickier than hoped. The last time we saw the broad market ignore bad news was in mid-June, just before the S&P 500 pushed up over 18% in less than 2 months. However, unlike the mid-June rally, sentiment today is at historic levels and it's being accompanied by multiple markets already starting a new uptrend before the S&P 500. In this week’s video, we take a deeper look at the markets that are not following the S&P 500 to new lows and also show the critical levels that will define whether we retest the August high or break down to new lows.
Big Tech Continues To Buy Semiconductors At Record Levels In 2022
Despite an enormous increase in Big Tech capex primarily driven by data centers, this line item does not get the attention it deserves in terms of follow-through to the semiconductor industry. Below, we look at FY2022 budgets to draw the conclusion that H2 spending on data center chips is equal if not greater than the first half of 2022.
Stocks are up on bad news? Now what?
Inflation data continued to surprise to the upside this week, yet the market is up nearly 3% on this information, as investors contemplate a potential end of the bear market in 2022. Also, while big tech, semis and the S&P 500 made new lows this week, biotech, transportation stocks, many high beta stocks made a higher low. The last time we saw the market shrugging off bad news with this many divergences was in mid-June, just before the last large bear market rally began. In this week’s video we dive into the possible paths this market can take into year-end, while also providing overhead levels where the risk will be high.
Will The Stock Market Bounce Last?
The U.S. Dollar is acting like a wrecking ball across global economies, and is one of the primary culprits for the current stock market crash. As the dollar continues to strengthen, other currencies get weaker, which only intensifies global inflation pressures. Once the dollar tops, which foreign central banks may force, expect a rally in equities --- specifically in beaten down growth stocks. Last week we said to expect a rally in equities as the U.S. Dollar is potentially putting in a bigger top, which we are now seeing. This week, we discuss what needs to happen, which will determine if this will be a multi-week rally or a multi-month rally.
Barron's Podcast: What the Heck is Going on with Cloud Valuations
Earlier this week, I/O Fund CEO and Lead Tech Analyst Beth Kindig joined Jeremy Owens, Tech Editor, and San Francisco Bureau Chief of MarketWatch, on Barron’s Live. They discussed cloud valuations including those that are trading at 2X above Covid lows, what metrics matter when evaluating cloud companies, and what to watch for in upcoming earnings season --- including a few comments on ad-tech.
How the Stock Market Crash Will End in 2022
We are now moving into the final quarter of the 2022 stock market crash. Below, we outline two scenarios for how the 2022 stock market crash will end. In the first five minutes of this video, we look at the bottom either occurring around the 3550 SPX region (following a minor bounce) or it will bottom in the 3400-3350 SPX before we see a year-end rally.
Broad Market Update: The FED versus Inflation
The FED is fighting inflation but what does this mean for the markets when there is real evidence that inflation is slowing down? In technical analysis from a month ago, we stated that if the market broke below 3920-3900, then odds were high of a continuation of the bear market. Two weeks later, the S&P 500 is trading in the low 3600 range and we have updated our analysis to discuss what comes next in this complicated and frustrating broad market environment.
