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Stocks, Oil and the Dollar
The two most important markets that are driving the S&P 500 is oil and the US dollar. Both are suggesting a continuation of the equity rally for another leg higher, but then the also suggest a return to volatility over a longer time horizon. In this article, we will examine the levels that must hold, as well as introduce the important supporting markets to track right now so that one can maneuver any further upside in the markets as well as the coming volatility that may follow.
Major Top or One More High
September is widely known to be the worst month for tech as it’s the only month to see negative average returns for the past decade for the Nasdaq 100. Meanwhile, the index is entering September up 42.5% YTD, setting up investors who are sitting on paper gains for potentially a large disappointment. With this many cross currents, there is no shortage of well-supported narratives. For this reason, we believe the best means to navigate the current markets is by focusing on price. If we are going to see a major pullback, this will show up in specific price patterns breaking through critical support. Until then, we believe it wise to not fight the current trend, even with the high probability of a recession manifesting within the next six months.
Tesla’s Margins: How Low Will They Go?
Tesla stock has rallied through most of 2023 during a time when consensus was estimating sales to grow +23% y/y but earnings to decline 15%. The main driver behind the decline in earnings estimates is that Tesla has decided to lower prices to increase volumes at the expense of margins. Starting in Q322 through Q223, operating margins have declined from 17.2% to 9.6%. Initially, Tesla cited making sure certain models qualified for the EV tax credit and later higher interest rates as the primary reasons for lowering prices.
Nvidia Stock: How We Plan To Position For Q2 Earnings
Nvidia guided fiscal Q2 at $11 billion, which is 53% higher than analyst expectations of $7.2 billion. The stock was up 25% after hours, adding $200 billion to its market cap in the matter of a day.
Alphabet Stock: Search Giant Is Just Getting Started
Going into this year, we were positioned for bottom-line focused investment themes that we felt would be able to deliver earnings growth due to secular demand for its products, and in some cases, be able to reduce costs to maintain profitability.
This Next AI Trend Could be Worth Trillions
In the clip below, Beth Kindig discusses how AI will drive stock market caps well into the trillions of dollars.
NASDAQ REBALANCE: WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
On June 30th, the NASDAQ posted the strongest first six months in the index’s history, dating back to 1971. The 6-month returns of 30.5% in 2023 easily beats the prior record of 25.2% in 2019. The majority of the rally was driven by seven stocks: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta, Google. These 7 stocks are up a collective 98% YTD, while the equal weight S&P 500, which provides an equal weighting to all 500 stocks in the index, is up only 9%.
Tesla Q2 Earnings – It’s About Margins
After the strong rally, it appears the market is taking profits on commentary around the outlook for margins. It’s not only that they were lower quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), but also Tesla provided zero insight as to how much lower margins can go. The market does not like uncertainty. It’s somewhat ironic that during the call Musk can wax poetic about the complexities of AI, neural net training, the 6-million dollar man, and robotic taxis yet when it comes to basic profitability drivers, he can’t say anything. The former drove the price post Q123 and the latter is driving the price today.
