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Taiwan Semiconductor Stock: AI Growth Amid Geopolitical Risk
Despite their leadership, AI stocks like Taiwan Semiconductor and Nvidia are flat year-to-date and trading at similar levels as June 2024. Clearly, the AI trade is not as straightforward as it might seem. Taiwan Semiconductor, in particular, sits at the center of geopolitical tensions — yet those tensions tend to surround companies with deep IP in the AI economy. What makes this economy so distinct is not just the extraordinary commercial demand, but also its rare, historical role in shaping global alliances (and adversaries). Investors are confronted almost daily with friction between the U.S. and China — and at the center of it all is one stock: Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC). While enthusiasm around AI demand remains strong, assuming it will simply override geopolitical headwinds is overly optimistic. Onshoring a supply chain like TSMC’s takes years, yet markets can react to a negative headline in seconds.
Historic Market Uncertainty Meets $7 Trillion Debt Wall: What Comes Next for the S&P 500
We are seeing mounting evidence that this bounce may be the start of a new push to all-time highs, such as improved breadth, better than expected earnings plus the size of this bounce. However, one can’t ignore the unprecedented levels of uncertainty shown in key indexes, coupled with a growing problem in the U.S. bond market. In this report, we’ll lay out the unbiased case for each scenario for our 2025 stock market outlook.
Nvidia Stock Faces a Choppy Q2, But Tailwinds Build for H2 Acceleration
Nvidia’s streak of blockbuster earnings has turned investor expectations into a high-stakes game— anything short of perfection risks disappointment. As the company gears up to report fiscal Q1 results, markets remain fixated on the fallout from China’s H20 export ban, which could shave $15 billion off annual revenue and includes a $5.5 billion inventory write-down. Q1 strength will likely reflect a surge in stockpiled orders from China, but Q2 poses the choppiest outlook in years as demand for Hopper GPUs slows and Blackwell ramps more gradually than expected. Despite these headwinds, Nvidia’s fiscal H2 may shine, with Blackwell NVL72 rack shipments set to surge. With over seven years of coverage and a 53% gain on our latest Nvidia trade, I/O Fund offers critical insights and buy targets as Wall Street heads into Nvidia Week.
Microsoft Stock Surges After Q3 2025 Earnings: What Separates Azure from AWS, Google Cloud
Microsoft stock jumped after Q3 2025 earnings as Azure emerged as the only major cloud platform to accelerate growth this quarter — a rare feat amid macro pressures. Azure’s 35% constant currency growth crushed estimates and far outpaced AWS at 17% and Google Cloud at 28%. This momentum reaffirms Microsoft’s dominant position in the Azure vs AWS vs Google Cloud battle. With deeper enterprise penetration, exclusive OpenAI integration, and a strong AI-driven roadmap, Microsoft’s cloud and AI edge continues to widen. Our full breakdown explores Azure’s acceleration, Microsoft’s 49% stake in OpenAI, rising token usage, and a major upcoming AI catalyst few are talking about.
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Run May Be Nearing a Top Despite Pro-Crypto Tailwinds
Since calling the Bitcoin bottom near $16,000 in late 2022, the I/O Fund has maintained a disciplined, contrarian approach — issuing 13 buy alerts before Bitcoin surged above $100,000. Now, signs suggest the current bull cycle may be nearing its final stage. Despite pro-crypto news headlines and ETF momentum, our technical and on-chain indicators point to rising risk and the possibility of a major top. In this article, we explore why it may be time to reduce exposure and how disciplined risk management can protect gains before the next volatile phase begins.
2025 Market Outlook: Why Stocks and Bonds Are Signaling More Volatility
As the S&P 500 reaches a key bounce target, troubling signs in bonds and consumer behavior suggest this market rally may be on thin ice. I/O Fund’s Knox Ridley explains why volatility may intensify and how the correlation between stocks and bonds is breaking in a way we haven’t seen in decades.
The Impact of Tariffs on the Stock Market: Q1 Preview
Rising tariffs are injecting significant uncertainty into the stock market, triggering daily volatility and forcing analysts to revise earnings estimates. Our Q1 preview dives into the potential impact on key sectors like consumer electronics (especially Apple), autos, and Big Tech, revealing how supply chain disruptions and potential price hikes could reshape the market landscape.
Tesla Stock Faces Recalibration of Growth Expectations
Tesla’s stock is now facing a recalibration of expectations after Q1’s delivery report missed by a wide margin. Q1’s analyst consensus has gone from $25.98B at the start of the year to $23.97B in early March, to now $21.54B following Tesla’s delivery report. These sharp revisions beg the question - is this enough? This analysis drills deeper into the current analyst expectations for Tesla and what to expect in Q1’s report below.
