Throwback: Nvidia will Surpass Apple’s Valuation in 4.5 Years
January 07, 2022
Beth Kindig
Lead Tech Analyst
Throwback: Nvidia will Surpass Apple’s Valuation in 4.5 Years
Last August, I predicted that Nvidia could surpass Apple on market cap. Here is what I said in my Forbes article: “I believe Nvidia is capable of out-performing all five FAAMG stocks and will surpass even Apple’s valuation in the next five years” and I expanded on this by stating, “We believe [Nvidia] can surpass Apple by capitalizing on the artificial intelligence economy, which will add an estimated $15 trillion to GDP. This is compared to the mobile economy that brought us the majority of the gains in Apple, Google and Facebook, and contributes $4.4 trillion to GDP.”
Source: YCharts
As strong as Nvidia has been on price action, Apple will not allow my prediction to be an easy slam dunk as the heavyweight briefly claimed a $3 trillion market cap.
Source: YCharts
Currently, Nvidia has a market cap of $690 billion and Apple has a market cap of around $2.9 trillion. Nvidia’s market cap rose about 22% compared to Apple’s 17% since my publication of the article. I made this prediction in August of 2021, and during the month of November, we were beginning to make headway with a diversion between semiconductors and big tech.
Source: YCharts
One of the main reasons for me to make the bold statement that Nvidia will surpass Apple’s valuation is that the market opportunity for Nvidia is vast when compared to the mobile economy, which benefitted Apple.
“Artificial intelligence will touch every aspect of both industry and commerce, including consumer, enterprise, and small-to-medium sized businesses, and will do so by disrupting every vertical similar to cloud. To be more specific, AI will be similar to cloud by blazing a path that is defined by lowering costs and increasing productivity.”
When we began covering Nvidia, we were stating the company would become a leader on AI while most analysts were stuck on the gaming storyline as this was Nvidia’s core product for many decades. This caused many investors to miss out on the top supplier for AI accelerator chips in the data center. We had predicted this three years ago when we wrote: Nvidia has two impenetrable moats – which are developer adoption and the GPU-powered cloud. Notice, we did not mention gaming or crypto mining despite this being the only two narratives on this company at the time.
Sign up for I/O Fund's free newsletter with gains of up to 1100% - Click here
We published this again in 2019 for premium members when we stated:
Nvidia’s acceleration may happen one or two years earlier as they are the core piece in the stack that is required for the computing power for the front-runners referenced in the graph above. There is a chance Nvidia reflects data center growth as soon as 2020-2021. -published August 2019, Premium I/O Fund.
Since the original 2018 publication on the two impenetrable moats, Nvidia has greatly outperformed FAAMG. We believe the same will be true over the next five years.
Source: YCharts
One reason for this is that last year, Nvidia released the Ampere architecture and A100 GPU as an upgrade from the Volta architecture. The A100 GPUs are able to unify training and inference on a single chip, whereas in the past Nvidia’s GPUs were mainly used for training. This allows Nvidia a competitive advantage by offering both training and inferencing. The result is a 20x performance boost from a multi-instance GPU that allows many GPUs to look like one GPU. The A100 offers the largest leap in performance to date over the past 8 generations.
One year later and the Ampere architecture is becoming one of the best-selling GPU architectures in the company’s history. This quarter, Microsoft Azure recently announced the availability of Azure ND A100 v4 Cloud GPU which is powered by NVIDIA A100 Tensor Core GPUs. The company claims it to be the fastest public cloud supercomputer. The news follows the launch by Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud general availability in prior quarters. The company has been extending its leadership in supercomputing. The latest top 500 list shows that Nvidia power 342 of the world’s top 500 supercomputers, including 70 percent of all new systems and eight of the top 10. This is a remarkable update from the company.
There are many other catalysts that will help Nvidia become the world’s most valuable company to prove my prediction true, including the metaverse, automotive, data analytics such as Spark with GPU acceleration, virtual machines for AI workloads and perhaps edge devices by licensing (or acquiring) Arm architecture.
We only have to wait until August of 2026 to see if Nvidia did indeed pass up Apple’s market cap. However, the wait should be an easy one if Nvidia continues to treat investors to the smooth gains (like butter) we’ve seen as of late.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Please consult with your financial advisor in regards to any stocks you buy.
Gains of up to 2,880% from our Free Newsletter.
Here are sample stock gains from the I/O Fund’s newsletter --- produced weekly and all for free!
2,880% on Nvidia
750% on Bitcoin
*as of Nov 20, 2024
Our newsletter provides an edge in the world’s most valuable industry – technology. Due to the enormous gains from this particular industry, we think it’s essential that every stock investor have a credible source who specializes in tech. Subscribe for Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks.
If you are a more serious investor, we have a premium service that offers lower entries and real-time trade alerts. Sample returns on the premium site include 4,490% on Nvidia, 900% on Chainlink, and 1,120% on Bitcoin. The I/O Fund is audited annually to prove it’s one of the best-performing Funds on the market, with returns that beat Wall Street funds.
Get a bonus for subscription!
Subscribe to our free weekly stock
analysis and receive the "AI Stock: 5
Things Nobody is Telling you" brochure
for free.
More To Explore
Newsletter
Semiconductor Stocks Exposed To China With Tariffs Incoming
Semiconductor stocks will come into focus in 2025 as geopolitical tensions rise. China is likely to retaliate following Trump’s most recent threats of 10% additional tariffs to all Chinese goods. This
Shopify Stock Is A Black Friday Beneficiary That Faces Key Test In Q4
Black Friday and Cyber Monday e-commerce sales broke records again this year, with Adobe pointing out that US sales increased 10.2% YoY to $10.8 billion on Black Friday while Cyber Monday sales rose 7
Nvidia’s Stock Has 70% Potential Upside For 2025
Nvidia once again posted a $2 billion beat to consensus revenue estimates in Q3, reporting YoY growth of nearly 94% to over $35 billion in revenue. Data center revenue more than doubled in the quarter
Nvidia Stock Is A Buy On Dips Before Blackwell Arrives In 2025
Nvidia’s stock broke to all-time highs recently, trading at $148 in early November and $147 yesterday. The stock has left many investors wondering “what comes next” after the unrelenting, historic sur
AI Spending To Exceed A Quarter Trillion Next Year
Big Tech’s AI spending continues to accelerate at a blistering pace, with the four giants well on track to spend upwards of a quarter trillion dollars predominantly towards AI infrastructure next year
Palantir Stock: How High Is Too High?
Palantir proved again in Q3 that it’s undeniably one of the stronger AI software stocks in the market outside of the cloud hyperscalers. The company reported visible AI-driven growth and persisting bu
Bitcoin Bull Market Intact as Risk Increases
In December 2022, we boldly stated that “Bitcoin is a buy” when it was trading around $17,000. We were positioning for a new bull cycle and projected a target between $75,000 - $132,000. Despite Bitco
Tesla Stock: Margins Bounce Back For AI-Leader
Tesla is arguably one of the most advanced AI companies in the world, yet its stock is dictated by margins. Over the past three years, Tesla’s average gross profit per vehicle has declined by 60%, fal
This Stock Is Crushing Salesforce, MongoDB And Snowflake In AI Revenue
In this article, I break down how Palantir’s AIP is putting it a step above peer Salesforce, MongoDB and Snowflake with visible AI growth, and its undeniable ‘secret sauce’.
Nvidia, Mag 7 Flash Warning Signs For Stocks
In this report, my team will address the risks brewing in the market. The strange behavior in the bond market could be signaling that the FOMC has made a policy error. This coupled with key tech stock