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One More Rally to End the Year
Sentiment continues to show some of the most bearish readings we’ve seen since the 2022 bear market began. The AAII, which is a survey that asks investors if they are bullish, neutral or bearish 6 months out, just gave us the lowest reading of bulls since the October low. Recently, only 24% of those surveyed are expecting bullish results over the next 6 months. Compared with the March low in 2009, this is not too far off that reading, which came in at around 19%.
Slowing Growth In Cloud Stocks: When Will We Hit A Bottom
Nearly all cloud companies are reporting a notable, sequential slowdown between Q3 to Q4. Amazon and Microsoft’s cloud infrastructure services slowed from mid-30 percent growth in prior years to 24 percent growth and 30% growth. Only a quarter ago – in Q2 – the growth was at 29 percent and 35%. This quarter marks a 5 percent decline sequentially, which is considered a rapid decline for these two companies.
Bitcoin is Going to Rally Again – Here’s What You Need to Know
Bitcoin is the best performing asset of our lifetime. Given the history of Bitcoin’s awe-inspiring returns shown below, the single most important question for every investor in the market today is if this gravity-defying asset can do it again. The Bears want you to focus on the -77% bear market, as they have for all of the four major drawdowns Bitcoin has experienced.
Podcast on Cloud Stocks: Consumption Model Vs. Subscription Model
In October, we talked with Jeremy Owens of MarketWatch on a Barron's podcast about the consumption model versus the subscription model. With Snowflake reporting this week, it's a good time to revisit the differences. Across cloud reports, Snowflake reported one of the highest rates of variability between Q3 and Q4 from 67% growth to an estimated 50% growth in Q4. This is likely due to the lumpiness of the consumption model. After reading through the report
Nvidia Stock: Evidence Gaming Bottomed And Why It’s Important
The new Ada Lovelace architecture uses 76 billion transistors and a 4nm production process. In the keynote, the CEO stated: ‘Nvidia engineers worked closely with TSMC to create the 4N process optimized for GPUs. This process let us integrate 76 billion transistors and over 18,000 CUDA cores, 70% more than the Ampere generation.’
The Low is in for Bonds, As Well As Most Stocks (For Now)
Last week, the market went through one of the largest intraday swings since the bear market began in 2022. Since then, we have reclaimed that high. The question is: what does this mean for the market in the long term?
We'll know this week if the low is in
Capitulation seems to be taking hold in many tech stocks, specifically in the SaaS/Cloud space. The market has been trained to look to tech, specifically FAANGs, as the sector to lead. However, what is likely happening is a seismic rotation into new leaders, as fear and a dwindling growth outlook has money fleeing to safety and quality. We dive into what this means for tech in the coming bounce?
FAANGs are not Leading this Market Lower
Panic selling commenced in the broad market after the FED's recent attempt to stop a rally. Interestingly, the bond market doesn't seem to buy it, nor do many key value stocks in the U.S. The divergences we have been discussing for weeks are only growing. These divergences are not what you see prior to a deep drop in the market, instead they tend to signal a trend reversal that is developing. The good news about yesterday is that if the market can move back above the 3912 level, which was the high going into speach, then we have a clear signal that inflation and rate hikes are fully being discounted as we setup for a larger rally.
