Blogs -Broad Market Levels - August 18, 2022: Is a New Bull Cycle Building?

Broad Market Levels - August 18, 2022: Is a New Bull Cycle Building?


August 19, 2022

Knox Ridley

Portfolio Manager

Is a new bull cycle building? Last week Knox examined if the bear market rally will crumble or if a bottom is present. This week Knox notes that the high-frequency data continues pointing toward a slowdown with inflation. The ECB's tone is getting more aggressive, while the FED’s tone is getting less aggressive, suggesting that a new bull cycle is building as we speak. However, with data pointing towards a slowdown in rate hikes and inflation, we are seeing rates press new lows, and how the US dollar is pushing higher, only a few percentage points away from new highs.

Furthermore, crude oil appears to be bottoming and suggesting a run to new highs. In short, the macro factors have been putting pressure on equities and are not buying what the equity market is pricing-in yet.

Until we see 5 waves develop in the S&P 500 off the June low, accompanied by the USD confirming a top and rates signaling the low is in, calling for the end of the bear market is premature. Watch the broad market levels video update taken from I/O Fund's Premium 1-hour webinar below.

00:00 - Key Levels in the S&P 500
04:02 - Structure of the Leading Diagonal
05:13 - Small Caps
07:08 - Macro Assets/Commodities Pushing Equities
10:20 - The U.S. Dollar
12:12 - Crude Oil


Read Knox's Technical Analysis Commentary below.

Bond Market, Crude Oil, and Equities

The bond market is not buying bonds, suggesting that they are not buying the narrative driving equities; crude oil looks to be bottoming, suggesting another run higher is probable. When you factor in the macro forces that have been putting pressure on equities that are not lining up with the narrative expressed in the equity market, it’s worth being cautious until we know more.


Bull Market Signals

Assuming that this is the start of a new bull cycle, we only have 3 waves up off the low. This means we are not even done with the 1st wave of 5 in a new bull market that would likely move into 2023/2024


USD Signals

Until we see 5 waves develop in the S&P500 off the June low, accompanied by USD confirming a major top and rates signaling the low is in, calling for the end of the bear market is premature. Our plan is to wait for 5 waves to complete (wave 1) and then buy into the 2nd wave retrace.


Watch the Broad Market Clips from the Week of August 15, 2022:

Catch up on I/O Fund Broad Market Updates

This is Still a Warning Sign - Broad Market Analysis

Broad Market Levels Update - August 10, 2022 - Knox reviews why there’s still some uncertainty about whether this is the bottom or not.


About I/O Fund Premium Stock Investing Services

Premium Members currently enjoy all 7 Premium benefits below.

  1. Premium library of institutional-level research and analysis, including fundamental stock analysis and advanced market signals on technicals and macro analysis.
  2. Weekly Webinars on advanced market signals and broad market, plus quarterly portfolio reviews on Long-Term Buy and Hold tech stocks.
  3. Technical Analysis on stocks and Broad Markets with charts on all major US markets, analysis of inflation and growth, as well as 60 global markets to help us focus on risk/reward for entries and position our portfolio based on the macro-environment.
  4. An Active Forum made up of a community of like-minded investors with robust conversations including both fundamental and tech product analysis.
  5. A completely Transparent Portfolio made up of long-term buy and hold positions, crypto, and Long/Short Momentum positions.
  6. Trade Alerts are sent directly to your phone via SMS and email.
  7. NEW! Automated Hedge with advanced signals to help spot approaching risk in the markets, with a 67% win rate going back to 2003 with only 40 signals triggered.

Sign Up


About I/O Fund Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley

Knox Ridley began consulting on portfolios in 2007 and is an experienced growth investor in both bull and bear markets, which is hard to find these days. As the portfolio manager of the I/O Fund, he beat the top-performing funds on Wall Street in both 2020 and in 2021. His real-time trade notifications to premium subscribers have garnered 35 entries with over 100% gains in the last two years. Knox began his career as an ETF wholesaler in 2007 before becoming a portfolio consultant for large RIAs, FAs, and Institutional accounts. He is very keen on macro trends and is trained in Fibonacci Trading, Elliott Wave theory, as well as Gann Cycles. He also uses classical technical analysis to manage risk and identify great risk/reward setups. Knox is known for increasing and decreasing allocations for record-breaking returns.

Gains of up to 403% from our Free Newsletter.

Here are sample stock gains from the I/O Fund’s newsletter --- produced weekly and all for free!

+344% on Nvidia

+403% on Bitcoin

+218% on Roku

*as of March 15, 2022

Our newsletter provides an edge in the world’s most valuable industry – technology. Due to the enormous gains from this particular industry, we think it’s essential that every stock investor have a credible source who specializes in tech. Subscribe for Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks.

If you are a more serious investor, we have a premium service that offers lower entries and real-time trade alerts. Sample returns on the premium site include 324% on Zoom, 601% on Nvidia, 445% on Bitcoin, and 4-digits on an alt-coin. The I/O Fund is audited annually to prove it’s one of the best performing Funds on the market with returns that beat Wall Street funds. 

More To Explore

Newsletter

Weekly Broad Market Levels: The Next Major Inflection Point

Next Week is going to be important. We explain what to favor when a market low is in place and reveals when the next key inflection point and swing pivot will be. Find out what the weekly market signa

September 23, 2022

Cybersecurity Continues To Lead Cloud Stocks

Last June, we discussed key reasons that cybersecurity stocks would hold up particularly well compared to other cloud verticals. The analysis pointed to enterprise spending expected to increase in 202

September 22, 2022

Broad Market Levels: September 15, 2022

Knox explores potential bear market scenarios. With the help of basic trend analysis, he hopes viewers will be able to filter their emotions, so they can be on the right side of trend changes. Knox al

September 16, 2022

Solar Stocks Lead The Market This Year As Energy Crisis Heats Up

Solar energy stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 Index YTD with the most noticeable divergence June-August. The S&P 500 index is down 17% YTD and Nasdaq-100 index is down 26%, yet solar stocks are le

September 14, 2022

Broad Market Levels: September 01, 2022

While examining the current broad market, Knox discusses whether or not the first leg of a larger bear market will last until 2023 or if there's something else going on. The broad market update also i

September 02, 2022

Why the Next Two Weeks Could Determine the Rest of 2022

For most of August, we have been providing free webinars in prior blog posts outlining an “imminent pullback.” You can access these here, and here. In this article, we will discuss key levels that mus

September 02, 2022

The Pullback is in Effect - Broad Market Levels - 08/26/2022

The pullback we've been warning about is in effect. We are in the middle of our target zone with 4000 SPX next. As long as we hold 4000/3975 and then turn back up to make one higher above 4330 SPX, th

August 29, 2022

Levels to Monitor in the Coming Pullback

In early July, the broad market failed to make new lows even despite bad news. The CPI print came in at a 40-year high, followed by the producer price index surprising to the upside. This told the mar

August 26, 2022

Top Ad-Tech Stocks: Q3 2022 Sector Overview

The ad-tech sector's performance is closely linked with the macroeconomy. This sector has been hit hard in the last few months due to global uncertainty. We believe this sector will recover when the e

August 23, 2022

Broad Market Levels - August 18, 2022: Is a New Bull Cycle Building?

High-Frequency data continues to point toward a slowdown with inflation. The ECB is tone is getting more aggressive, while the FED’s tone is getting less aggressive. This would suggest that a new bull

August 19, 2022

Sign up for Analysis on
the Best Tech Stocks

The I/O Fund specializes in tech growth stocks and offers in-depth research for Premium Members. Investors get access to a transparent portfolio of 30 positions, a private forum, webinars, and real-time trade notifications. Sign up for Premium.

We are on social networks


Copyright © 2010 - 2022
Get Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks