Blogs -How the Stock Market Crash Will End in 2022

How the Stock Market Crash Will End in 2022


September 30, 2022

author

Knox Ridley

Portfolio Manager

We are now moving into the final quarter of the 2022 stock market crash. Below, we outline two scenarios for how the 2022 stock market crash will end. In the first five minutes of this video, we look at the bottom either occurring around the 3550 SPX region (following a minor bounce) or it will bottom in the 3400-3350 SPX before we see a year-end rally.

Weekly Broad Market Levels Timestamps

00:00 - Tech Broad Market Analysis Intro
03:00 - What is the Pattern Playing Out with the Stock Market Crash
04:27 - The Expanded Flat Correction Scenario
05:16 - The Complex Bear Market Pattern Scenario
05:40 - Will the Stock Market Crash Correct Next Week?
06:45 - Supporting Markets - Rates and the USD
10:00 - When Global Growth Fears Out-Weigh Inflation Fears
14:29 - Weekly Stock Market Analysis Conclusion

Stock Market Reversal Signals

What stock investors should watch for is a reversal in the bond market, which is tracked through the ETF, TLT. If we cannot find a bottom above $96.50, something much bigger is going on although the probability favors a bottom between $101-$96.50. Once the bond market starts to fear the growth slowdown more than inflation, we can expect to see a reversal in rates, which will take pressure off of equities.

09/30 Weekly Broad Market Update Conclusion

Also, a reversal in the dollar will signal that equities are ready to bounce. If this happens, the broad market bounce we are describing in this webinar increases in probability. The two scenarios above help to inform how we buy stocks, sell stocks, and hedge our own portfolio and we share the technical analysis as we believe risk management is one of the most important tools for stock investors. 


Get Critical Weekly Stock Market Analysis during Stock Market Crashes

On the I/O Fund premium site, we provide weekly webinars that discuss what the I/O Fund is buying and selling. We also have a proprietary hedging signal that we monitor in real-time. Following the analysis, we provided for free on YouTube last month “This is Still a Warning Sign” and also in this article “Why the Next Two Weeks Could Determine 2022” we hedged going into the CPI number for a nice gain in a tough market and have had a hedge in place most of September

To watch more stock market analysis videos, follow me on YouTube here or sign up for the I/O Fund free newsletter to be notified when I publish the next weekly webinar.


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The next premium webinar will be on Thursday, October 6th at 4:00 pm Eastern where we will discuss how we plan to trade the broad market signals discussed in this article plus new information on an important time factor in mid-October which we believe is lining up with the Q3 earnings season. Learn more about Premium I/O Fund Services.

About I/O Fund Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley

Knox Ridley began consulting on portfolios in 2007 and is an experienced growth investor in both bull and bear markets, which is hard to find these days. As the portfolio manager of the I/O Fund, he beat the top-performing funds on Wall Street in both 2020 and in 2021. His real-time trade notifications to premium subscribers have garnered 27 entries with over 100% gains in the last two years. Knox began his career as an ETF wholesaler in 2007 before becoming a portfolio consultant for large RIAs, FAs, and Institutional accounts. He is very keen on macro trends and is trained in Fibonacci Trading, Elliott Wave theory, as well as Gann Cycles. He also uses classical technical analysis to manage risk and identify great risk/reward setups. Knox is known for increasing and decreasing allocations for record-breaking returns.

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