How the Stock Market Crash Will End in 2022
September 30, 2022
Knox Ridley
Portfolio Manager
We are now moving into the final quarter of the 2022 stock market crash. Below, we outline two scenarios for how the 2022 stock market crash will end. In the first five minutes of this video, we look at the bottom either occurring around the 3550 SPX region (following a minor bounce) or it will bottom in the 3400-3350 SPX before we see a year-end rally.
Weekly Broad Market Levels Timestamps
00:00 - Tech Broad Market Analysis Intro
03:00 - What is the Pattern Playing Out with the Stock Market Crash
04:27 - The Expanded Flat Correction Scenario
05:16 - The Complex Bear Market Pattern Scenario
05:40 - Will the Stock Market Crash Correct Next Week?
06:45 - Supporting Markets - Rates and the USD
10:00 - When Global Growth Fears Out-Weigh Inflation Fears
14:29 - Weekly Stock Market Analysis Conclusion
Stock Market Reversal Signals
What stock investors should watch for is a reversal in the bond market, which is tracked through the ETF, TLT. If we cannot find a bottom above $96.50, something much bigger is going on although the probability favors a bottom between $101-$96.50. Once the bond market starts to fear the growth slowdown more than inflation, we can expect to see a reversal in rates, which will take pressure off of equities.
09/30 Weekly Broad Market Update Conclusion
Also, a reversal in the dollar will signal that equities are ready to bounce. If this happens, the broad market bounce we are describing in this webinar increases in probability. The two scenarios above help to inform how we buy stocks, sell stocks, and hedge our own portfolio and we share the technical analysis as we believe risk management is one of the most important tools for stock investors.
Get Critical Weekly Stock Market Analysis during Stock Market Crashes
On the I/O Fund premium site, we provide weekly webinars that discuss what the I/O Fund is buying and selling. We also have a proprietary hedging signal that we monitor in real-time. Following the analysis, we provided for free on YouTube last month “This is Still a Warning Sign” and also in this article “Why the Next Two Weeks Could Determine 2022” we hedged going into the CPI number for a nice gain in a tough market and have had a hedge in place most of September
To watch more stock market analysis videos, follow me on YouTube here or sign up for the I/O Fund free newsletter to be notified when I publish the next weekly webinar.
Sign Up for the Next Premium Webinar covering Stock Market Bounces
The next premium webinar will be on Thursday, October 6th at 4:00 pm Eastern where we will discuss how we plan to trade the broad market signals discussed in this article plus new information on an important time factor in mid-October which we believe is lining up with the Q3 earnings season. Learn more about Premium I/O Fund Services.
About I/O Fund Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley
Knox Ridley began consulting on portfolios in 2007 and is an experienced growth investor in both bull and bear markets, which is hard to find these days. As the portfolio manager of the I/O Fund, he beat the top-performing funds on Wall Street in both 2020 and in 2021. His real-time trade notifications to premium subscribers have garnered 27 entries with over 100% gains in the last two years. Knox began his career as an ETF wholesaler in 2007 before becoming a portfolio consultant for large RIAs, FAs, and Institutional accounts. He is very keen on macro trends and is trained in Fibonacci Trading, Elliott Wave theory, as well as Gann Cycles. He also uses classical technical analysis to manage risk and identify great risk/reward setups. Knox is known for increasing and decreasing allocations for record-breaking returns.
To get more free stock analysis on fundamentals and technicals, sign up for I/O Fund's free newsletter with gains of up to 403% - Click here.
Subscribe to Free Newsletter
About I/O Fund Premium Stock Investing Services
Premium Members currently enjoy all 7 Premium benefits below.
- Premium library of institutional-level research and analysis, including fundamental stock analysis and advanced market signals on technicals and macro analysis.
- Weekly Webinars on advanced market signals and broad market, plus quarterly portfolio reviews on Long-Term Buy and Hold tech stocks.
- Technical Analysis on stocks and Broad Markets with charts on all major US markets, analysis of inflation and growth, as well as 60 global markets to help us focus on risk/reward for entries and position our portfolio based on the macro-environment.
- An Active Forum made up of a community of like-minded investors with robust conversations including both fundamental and tech product analysis.
- A completely Transparent Portfolio made up of long-term buy and hold positions, crypto, and Long/Short Momentum positions.
- Trade Alerts are sent directly to your phone via SMS and email.
- NEW! Automated Hedge with advanced signals to help spot approaching risk in the markets, with a 67% win rate going back to 2003 with only 40 signals triggered.
More To Explore
Newsletter
Is the AI Dip a Buy? Key S&P 500 Levels and the One Bond Market Line to Watch
In our last broad market report on June 18th, we presented a case for caution, presenting numerous warning signs that we tend to see before a correction, ranging from institutional positioning to nume
Big Tech’s AI Revenue Is Surging, but Suppliers Will Still Be the Bigger Winners
Big Tech’s AI Capex has stomped estimates for multiple years and analysts are now calling for capex to surge to $1 trillion in 2027. However, hyperscalers have long battled investor concerns around wh
AI Capex to Hit $1 Trillion – And Estimates Are Still Too Low
Big Tech capex is the driving force behind the AI infrastructure trade, yet Wall Street has repeatedly underestimated the sheer scale of the buildout. Currently, in 2026, the guidance for $732.5 billi
Token Growth is Surging - Here Are the Beneficiaries
The reality of AI demand growth has shattered early estimates for token processing, yet expectations continue moving up and to the right. In the second installment of our token processing series, we e
AI Token Demand is Shattering Forecasts
Total annual token processing is no longer measured in billions or trillions of tokens, but in the quadrillions and beyond. As annual token processing is now tracked in units with 15 trailing zeros, i
Nvidia and Google Are Crowding TSMC’s N3 Node - Can Intel Fill the Gap?
Nvidia is moving its next-generation Rubin GPUs from 4nm to 3nm, yet Google’s latest TPUs are already on N3 and are expected to remain there. Meanwhile, a growing number of AI CPUs from Nvidia, Amazon
Intel vs TSMC: How CoWoS Packaging Constraints Could Create an Opportunity for Intel Foundry
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is the single, most important company to the AI industry. However, to compete with the incumbent, Intel does not need to beat TSMC at leading-edge manufacturing. It only ne
Big Tech’s Free Cash Flow is Turning Negative – Who's Next?
Big Tech’s AI revenue is accelerating, but free cash flow is moving sharply in the opposite direction. Across Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, capex is rising much faster than operating cash flow a
Big Tech Earnings Preview: Is AI Monetization Finally Catching Up to Capex?
The most pronounced difference between 2026’s tech rally compared to rallies in the past is which companies have been left out of it. The names most associated with the AI trade have hardly participat
Nvidia, CXL, and the Battle to Improve AI Inference Economics
This is Part 2 of our two-part series on AI inference economics. In Part 1 — Why Nvidia's Next AI Battle Is About Tokens per Watt, we laid out why tokens per watt has become the defining metric for in
