Blogs -Tesla Q2 Earnings – It’s About Margins

Tesla Q2 Earnings – It’s About Margins


July 25, 2023

author

Beth Kindig

Lead Tech Analyst

This article was originally published on Forbes on Jul 21, 2023,08:15am EDT

After the strong rally, it appears the market is taking profits on commentary around the outlook for margins. It’s not only that they were lower quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), but also Tesla provided zero insight as to how much lower margins can go. The market does not like uncertainty. It’s somewhat ironic that during the call Musk can wax poetic about the complexities of AI, neural net training, the 6-million dollar man, and robotic taxis yet when it comes to basic profitability drivers, he can’t say anything. The former drove the price post Q123 and the latter is driving the price today.

Did reported automotive gross margins bottom?

Likely not.

Telsa had a reported Q223 automotive gross margin of 19.2% vs Q123 of 21.10% vs Q422 of 25.90%. Meanwhile, Q223 group operating margins were of 9.6% vs Q123 of 11% vs Q422 of 16%.

Reported automotive gross margins and operating margins peaked in Q222 at 32.9% and 19.3% respectively. Since then, both have been steadily declining downward. The stock is weaker today because the market does not know where or when these two metrics will ultimately bottom.

Looking ahead, Tesla will continue to focus on volumes through lower prices and at the expense of margins. Here’s what Zachary Kirkhorn, CFO said:

“Second, we continue to work towards our goals of maximizing volumes on both, our vehicle and energy business, but most importantly, doing so in a way that generates the capital to continue our pace of R&D and capital investments. This requires a strong focus on per unit COGS reductions in each of our key businesses, as well as working capital improvements on raw materials, work in process inventory and customer AR, all of which progressed appropriately in Q2.

If we look specifically at our automotive business, our gross margin showed a modest reduction and remained healthy, despite action taken to further improve vehicle affordability early in the quarter. We recognized – we realized per unit cost improvements in nearly every category, including material cost and commodities, manufacturing costs and logistics”

Sign up for I/O Fund's free newsletter with gains of up to 221% - Click here

In response to a question on pricing, Tesla continues the point that the company is having to lower prices due to the higher interest rate environment

Question:

“How has the order intake trended relatively to production levels during Q2? And how has it trended in the quarter-to-date period? Conceptually, how does Tesla decide when is it appropriate to reduce prices or at other sales incentives to increase demand?”

Elon Musk

“[…] Buying a new car is a big decision for vast majority of people. So, any time there’s economic uncertainty, people generally pause on new car buying at least to see what happens. And then obviously, another challenge is the interest rate environment. As interest rates rise, the affordability of anything bought with debt decreases, so effectively increasing the price of the car.

So when interest rates rise dramatically, we actually have to reduce the price of the car because the interest payments increase the price of the car. And this is — at least up until recently, it was, I believe, the sharpest interest rate rise in history. So, we had to do something about that […]

When asked again about automotive margins, management did not provide a direct answer. For our purposes, we prefer management teams to answer directly as it increases uncertainty to not provide visibility into contracting margins.

Question:

“With the emphasis of price cuts to drive volume growth eating into automotive gross margin, can investors expect to see automotive gross margin stabilize or even rise due to efficiencies outpacing the cuts? And if so, when?”

Elon Musk:

“Where’s that crystal ball, again? If I may, look, the short-term variances in gross margin and profitability really are minor relative to the long-term picture. Autonomy will make all of these numbers look silly.

Zachary Kirkhorn

“I fully agree with you. I mean, I think the only thing in the short term that matters is what I said in my opening remarks, which is are we generating enough money to continue to invest. And the portfolio of products and technologies that the technical teams are investing in right now, this is intense. It’s intense in terms of investment; it’s intense in terms of potential.”

Every Thursday at 4:30 pm Eastern, the I/O Fund team holds a webinar for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock entries and exits. We offer trade alerts plus an automated hedging signal. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. Learn more here.

Conclusion:

The sentiment post Q223 isn’t much different than in Q123. As we all know, Tesla rallied after Q1. This time around, given the stock is at higher levels, there may be less AI sentiment to support it in the short term. Q3 won’t be a catalyst and analysts will likely reduce numbers.

While many will argue that Tesla is one of the most advanced AI companies in the world, my response is “sure” but Tesla is also heavily exposed to consumer spending — and this is entirely out of their control. The comment on interest rates is the most important comment from the call as high interest rates mean Tesla must lower prices. In a way, management is agreeing that quite a bit about the current situation is out of management’s control. While some will talk about recurring software revenue from robotaxis as the most important catalyst, the harsh reality is that the FED lowering rates is the most important catalyst for Tesla today. That may not be as exciting as AI, but Tesla is one of many tech stocks whose revenue growth and profitability is on borrowed time until the Fed instills a more dovish policy.

The I/O Fund Analyst Team contributed to this analysis.

Recommended Readings:

head bg

Get a bonus for subscription!

Subscribe to our free weekly stock
analysis and receive the "AI Stock: 5
Things Nobody is Telling you" brochure
for free.

More To Explore

Newsletter

Bitcoin price chart signaling potential top despite favorable crypto news

Why Bitcoin’s Bull Run May Be Nearing a Top Despite Pro-Crypto Tailwinds

Since calling the Bitcoin bottom near $16,000 in late 2022, the I/O Fund has maintained a disciplined, contrarian approach — issuing 13 buy alerts before Bitcoin surged above $100,000. Now, signs sugg

May 09, 2025
S&P 500 hits key 2025 target as bond market and consumer trends signal rising volatility and shifting stock-bond correlation.

2025 Market Outlook: Why Stocks and Bonds Are Signaling More Volatility

As the S&P 500 reaches a key bounce target, troubling signs in bonds and consumer behavior suggest this market rally may be on thin ice. I/O Fund’s Knox Ridley explains why volatility may intensify an

May 02, 2025
Illustration of an investor holding an umbrella, shielding from stock market volatility.

The Impact of Tariffs on the Stock Market: Q1 Preview

Rising tariffs are injecting significant uncertainty into the stock market, triggering daily volatility and forcing analysts to revise earnings estimates. Our Q1 preview dives into the potential impac

April 25, 2025
Aerial view of Tesla's new Model Y Juniper parked in lines. Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.

Tesla Stock Faces Recalibration of Growth Expectations

Tesla’s stock is now facing a recalibration of expectations after Q1’s delivery report missed by a wide margin. Q1’s analyst consensus has gone from $25.98B at the start of the year to $23.97B in earl

April 17, 2025
an illustration of a government building, constrained by heavy chains, with a volatile stock chart displayed above.

The Fed Can’t Save This One: Why Bonds May Break the Stock Market in 2025

In early 2025, as markets rallied to new highs, we warned that divergence across key sectors signaled a looming correction. Now, with all major indexes in a technical bear market and bond market dysfu

April 11, 2025
Silhouette illustration of Larry Ellison, Oracle's CTO and executive chairman.

Oracle Stock Outlook: Revenue Could Double by FY2029, yet Targets Seem Lofty

Late in 2024, Oracle outlined an ambitious plan to nearly double its revenue by fiscal 2029, hinging on long-term growth in enterprise AI and cloud spending. Oracle sets itself apart from its hypersca

April 04, 2025
Graphic showing I/O Fund's "210% Cumulative Returns" with financial charts and a world map in the background.

I/O Fund Reports 210% Cumulative Return -- Ranking Above Wall Street's Best

In 2024, I/O Fund posted a 35% return, significantly outperforming popular tech ETFs, which recorded an 8% return over the same period. On a cumulative basis, the results translate to a remarkable 219

March 31, 2025
Illustration of an investor burdened by the weight of market downturn

The Harsh Truth: Retail Investors Take the Brunt of Market Losses

Retail investors face significant disadvantages in the stock market, often underperforming institutional investors by a wide margin. Studies show that high-frequency trading firms dominate market acti

March 28, 2025
Illustration of a futuristic AI data center featuring NVIDIA’s GB200 Superchip

NVIDIA’s GB200s for up to 27 Trillion Parameter Models: Scaling Next-Gen AI Superclusters

Supercomputers and advanced AI data centers are driving the AI revolution, enabling breakthroughs in deep learning and large-scale model training. As AI workloads become increasingly complex, next-gen

March 21, 2025
illustration of NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra chip with a glowing AI brain above it.

NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra Fuels AI & HPC Innovation, Efficiency and Capability  

NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell Ultra GPU, unveiled at NVIDIA GTC 2025, is transforming AI acceleration and high-performance computing (HPC). Designed for the “Age of Reasoning,” these cutting-edge GPUs del

March 21, 2025
newsletter

Sign up for Analysis on
the Best Tech Stocks

https://bethtechnology.cdn.prismic.io/bethtechnology/e0a8f1ff-95b9-432c-a819-369b491ce051_Logo_Final_Transparent_IOFUND.svg
The I/O Fund specializes in tech growth stocks and offers in-depth research for Premium Members. Investors get access to a transparent portfolio, a forum, webinars, and real-time trade notifications. Sign up for Premium.

We are on social networks


Copyright © 2010 - 2025