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DeepSeek Creates Buying Opportunity for Nvidia Stock
DeepSeek shook the market to start the week, sending AI heavyweight Nvidia down 17% on Monday, wiping out $600 billion in market cap, while other AI hardware names fell up to 30%. This is enough to make any investor panic, and it boiled down to one mission-critical question – did the model’s release fundamentally rewrite the AI capex story? The market’s readthrough is that Big Tech has now been overspending on AI. However, The I/O Fund believes that readthrough is wrong, it’s not that the United States is overspending; it’s that we will accelerate spending to stay ahead. In this analysis, I provide evidence that DeepSeek is not the black swan that killed Nvidia overnight, and touch base on what investors should keep an eye on price-wise moving forward for Nvidia. The I/O Fund recently entered five new small and mid-cap positions that we believe will be beneficiaries of this AI spending war. We discuss entries, exits and what to expect from the broad market every Thursday at 4:30 p.m. in our 1-hour webinar. Learn more here.
Big Tech AI Stocks to Showcase AI Gains, Capex in Q4 Reports
Big Tech’s earnings are just around the corner, with Microsoft and Meta kicking the season off on January 29th. The upcoming December quarter reports will offer a glimpse into AI spending trends to close out 2024 and an initial view for 2025, where Microsoft has already penciled in at least $80 billion in spending for AI-enabled data centers compared to $62 billion originally estimated. Analysts had initially estimated capex of ~$200 billion for Big Tech in 2024, an increase of ~30% YoY. In the first half of 2024, Big Tech spent nearly $104 billion, a 47% YoY increase. Through Q3, that sum had surged to $170 billion, up 56% YoY. Our latest checks suggest that Big Tech is on track to spend at least $236 billion in capex in 2024, 18% higher than analyst estimates and representing YoY growth of more than 52%.
Why Solana is Outperforming Ethereum by 26,500% Since 2020
Ethereum has long been the frontrunner in decentralized apps (dApps) and blockchain innovation, but its scalability challenges have left the door open for competitors like Solana. Launched in March 2020, Solana has surged over +28,000% since its debut, compared to Ethereum’s +1,500%, offering a faster, more efficient alternative through its unique Proof of History (PoH) protocol. This protocol enables Solana to process up to 65,000 transactions per second without sidechains, making it a superior layer 1 solution in terms of speed and security. With Ethereum’s shift from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS) addressing some scalability issues but raising concerns about centralization, Solana continues to push ahead, supported by innovations like the upcoming Firedancer upgrade, which promises to boost transaction speeds to over 1,000,000 per second. While the broader adoption of blockchain remains in its early stages, Solana’s advancements position it as a compelling contender for long-term layer 1 dominance.
The Best of I/O Fund’s Free Newsletter in 2024
The Best of I/O Fund’s Free Newsletter in 2024 highlights top-performing tech stocks, Bitcoin insights, and AI-driven market trends. Discover how I/O Fund delivered unparalleled analysis on Nvidia, Bitcoin, Meta, Amazon, and Palantir. With in-depth research into AI power consumption, cloud growth, and tech’s biggest movers, our free newsletter provides investors with actionable insights and proven strategies to navigate the high-stakes tech sector. Stay ahead with expert analysis that uncovers opportunities and helps manage risk in the most dynamic industry. Learn more and sign up today!
Five Top Tech Stocks Of 2024: Year In Review
Below, I review five of the top stocks of 2024, selected based on their price action, fundamentals and presence withing leading tech themes. Choosing a top 5 means many great stocks were left off this list, yet this sample helps to form conclusions around how 2024 shaped up versus years past, centered around leading, core thematic opportunities.
Where I Plan To Buy Nvidia Stock Next
The I/O Fund is tracking multiple supply chain signals indicating Blackwell sales will likely far exceed the GPU sales we saw in 2023 and 2024 combined – to the tune of bringing Nvidia to $200 billion in data center revenue.
This Is Not Broadcom’s ‘Nvidia Moment’ Yet
Broadcom’s stock surged 35% in two days despite a mediocre Q4, as management offered investors a picturesque addressable market forecast for 2027. Q4 was not the blowout report the market made it out to be, as Broadcom fell just short of revenue estimates while guiding Q1 barely above consensus. Despite this, the market did solidify that momentum continues to build for AI stocks entering 2025.
Semiconductor Stocks Exposed To China With Tariffs Incoming
Semiconductor stocks will come into focus in 2025 as geopolitical tensions rise. China is likely to retaliate following Trump’s most recent threats of 10% additional tariffs to all Chinese goods. This escalation in tariffs and retaliation is expected to have an impact on semiconductor sales in China, particularly affecting chipmakers with higher exposure to China.
