Blogs -Broad Market Levels: September 01, 2022

Broad Market Levels: September 01, 2022


September 02, 2022

author

Knox Ridley

Portfolio Manager

In this week's broad market video update, Knox explains why the next two weeks could determine the rest of 2022. Read his full technical analysis here. Taken from a 1-hour premium webinar, Knox shares his view on where the market may be headed in the coming weeks. While examining the current structure, Knox discusses whether or not the first leg of a larger bear market will last until 2023 or if there's something else going on. The broad market update also includes an overview of three scenarios that will be likely going forward and takes a look at the supporting markets such as crude oil and the U.S. dollar.


Broad Market Levels Timestamps:

00:00 - The Next Two Weeks Could be Very Telling

04:25 - Three Scenarios

09:31 - Key Levels

10:34 - Oil and Inflation Levels

12:15 - Interest Rates

13:13 - The U.S. Dollar


Three Broad Market Scenarios


Scenario #1: The Leading Diagonal

The first is the blue count, which is a leading diagonal that leads up to the 4,300 level. However, this scenario becomes less and less likely if the SPX remains below the 4,000 range.


Scenario #2: Five Waves

The second scenario is the red count, which is similar to the blue one in that it will go up to the 4,300 level. The only difference is that whereas the blue count will follow a 3 wave pattern, the red one will follow 5 waves.



Scenario #3: Three Waves

The final scenario is the orange count, which is a 3-wave drop to the 3,480 confluence level and to the 3,290 below that. Knox explains that although this is an unlikely scenario, there’s plenty of time to prepare.

Supporting Markets

Oil & Interest Rates

On Supporting Markets, Knox says there’s some temporary good news with oil and interest rates, but expects both markets to drag down equities in the future. He expects oil to break out of the 94 levels, while rates are closer to a low than the market.

The U.S. Dollar

Of all the supporting markets, only the U.S. Dollar is showing good signs for equities. Knox believes that the U.S. Dollar is reaching a meaningful top and expects that this will have a positive effect on equities going forward.
 

Related Technical Analysis: Why the Next Two Weeks Could Determine the Rest of 2022

Read Knox's in-depth supporting full-technical analysis on the 09/01/2022 broad market levels here.


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Catch up on previous Broad Market Levels

Levels to Monitor in the Coming Pullback

In early July, the broad market failed to make new lows even despite the bad news. The CPI print came in at a 40-year high, followed by the producer price index surprising the upside. This told the market that inflation was still an issue and would likely be in the near future. This was then followed by mixed banks earnings, as reports of a looming economic slowdown and run-away inflation were starting to show up in earnings.


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About I/O Fund Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley

Knox Ridley began consulting on portfolios in 2007 and is an experienced growth investor in both bull and bear markets, which is hard to find these days. As the portfolio manager of the I/O Fund, he beat the top-performing funds on Wall Street in both 2020 and in 2021. His real-time trade notifications to premium subscribers have garnered 27 entries with over 100% gains in the last two years. Knox began his career as an ETF wholesaler in 2007 before becoming a portfolio consultant for large RIAs, FAs, and Institutional accounts. He is very keen on macro trends and is trained in Fibonacci Trading, Elliott Wave theory, as well as Gann Cycles. He also uses classical technical analysis to manage risk and identify great risk/reward setups. Knox is known for increasing and decreasing allocations for record-breaking returns.

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