Blogs -Weekly Broad Market Levels: The Next Major Inflection Point

Weekly Broad Market Levels: The Next Major Inflection Point


September 23, 2022

author

Knox Ridley

Portfolio Manager

Weekly Broad Market Levels: Major inflection point next, and what’s below the June low.


Last week we discussed the importance of the 3900 vs 4120 price range. Whatever level broke first would likely determine the rest of 2022. If you’ve been following our previous broad market analysis, we’ve tried to help investors get on the right side of trend changes in this challenging bear market. This week, we discuss what needs to happen in order to see a market low. Find out what the weekly market signals are telling us about the current market and learn about how the I/O Fund approaches risk and opportunities in such an environment.

With the break below 3760 today, we now know what the market has planned. The 3908 SPX level remains the level that must be broken if we are going to see any bullish momentum return to this market. In the meantime, rates and the USD continue their push higher, as equities continue to point towards the 3954 support zone. The Dow, Financials, Semis, and also the Global DOW, including the German DAX, have broken their June/July lows with the move today. We are trending, once again, very sharply into our next inflection point, which starts next Monday and lasts into Oct. 3. We will be looking for some type of temporary low next week. If this bounce remains weak, we will add it to our hedge.

Broad Market Levels Video Timestamps
00:00 - Key Market Levels - Below 3900
04:10 – Potential Paths This Bear Market Can Take.
06:32 - Secular Bear Markets
08:39 - The Fed and Rates 
13:05 - Crude Oil
13:42 - U.S. Dollar

The Market Broke Below 3900 - What It Means for Investors Now

In this week’s video, we point out major support zones and what they mean for the current bear market. Watch 3760 SPX as the final support zone, which needs to hold, if we are going to see a renewed bull market in 2023. On the other hand, if the SPX breaks below 3760, odds favor that it will drop down to 3,545.


A Look into I/O Fund’s Portfolio Strategy

If the bounce from 3,760 is strong and breaks past 3908 – which would be another key level – we will take that as a signal that a meaningful low is in, and the I/O Fund will be prepared to be aggressive on the long side of this market. If, however, the succeeding bounce is weak and unable to break above 3908 the I/O Fund will add their hedge back. Advanced premium members get access to hedge signals alongside text and email trade alerts of every portfolio buy and sell.


How Do Bear Markets Play Out?

Aside from the current state of the market, we also briefly touch on Secular Bear Markets, and how they play out over time. We look at the one that played out between 2000 to 2009 as an example and show the opportunities on both the long and short side.


Supporting Markets are Suggesting a Meaningful Low Sooner (U.S. Dollar, Crude Oil, and Equities)

Finally, we look at the state of supporting markets. Rates seem to be close to a large-degree trend change, and it looks like they may start trending lower into 2023. The dollar is also coming close to confirming a large top, which would further support a renewed uptrend in equities. Crude oil also continues to remain low, and although it looks like a fifth wave push to new highs is likely, it hasn’t shown any major changes as of yet. The dollar, on the other hand, continues to disappoint, with bears failing to break through 107. Even so, the dollar is close to a large top, which would further support equities.


“The Bond Market has not signaled in an imminent Recession.” - Knox Ridley, I/O Fund Portfolio Manager


The Importance of Price Action Going into Next Week

Next week is going to be important. Wednesday is when the next major inflection point will start. In the rest of the premium webinar, we take a look at why price action is going to be key when predicting when the market will move. To watch the full premium technical analysis where we also review price action for FAANGs and three growth tech stocks we are targeting to own, sign up here.



The Next Inflection Point Starts on Monday and will last until October 03

Subscribe to our Free Stock Analysis Newsletter with gains of up to 403% so you can learn how to navigate the next inflection point which starts next Monday and will last until October 03, 2022. 


Catch up on previous Free Technical Analysis: Broad Market Levels

In last week’s broad market levels update, we explore potential market scenarios into the end of 2022. With the help of basic trend analysis, we hope viewers will be able to filter their emotions, so they can be on the right side of trend changes. We also cover September 16th's quadruple witching event, he details what supporting markets contributed to this bear market and ends the technical analysis by discussing the market impact of a potential recession in 2023.

About I/O Fund Premium Stock Investing Services

Premium Members currently enjoy all 7 Premium benefits below.

  1. Premium library of institutional-level research and analysis, including fundamental stock analysis and advanced market signals on technicals and macro analysis.
  2. Weekly Webinars on advanced market signals and broad market, plus quarterly portfolio reviews on Long-Term Buy and Hold tech stocks.
  3. Technical Analysis on stocks and Broad Markets with charts on all major US markets, analysis of inflation and growth, as well as 60 global markets to help us focus on risk/reward for entries and position our portfolio based on the macro-environment.
  4. An Active Forum made up of a community of like-minded investors with robust conversations including both fundamental and tech product analysis.
  5. A completely Transparent Portfolio made up of long-term buy and hold positions, crypto, and Long/Short Momentum positions.
  6. Trade Alerts are sent directly to your phone via SMS and email.
  7. NEW! Automated Hedge with advanced signals to help spot approaching risk in the markets, with a 67% win rate going back to 2003 with only 40 signals triggered.

Sign up for Premium

About I/O Fund Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley

Knox Ridley began consulting on portfolios in 2007 and is an experienced growth investor in both bull and bear markets, which is hard to find these days. As the portfolio manager of the I/O Fund, he beat the top-performing funds on Wall Street in both 2020 and in 2021. His real-time trade notifications to premium subscribers have garnered 27 entries with over 100% gains in the last two years. Knox began his career as an ETF wholesaler in 2007 before becoming a portfolio consultant for large RIAs, FAs, and Institutional accounts. He is very keen on macro trends and is trained in Fibonacci Trading, Elliott Wave theory, as well as Gann Cycles. He also uses classical technical analysis to manage risk and identify great risk/reward setups. Knox is known for increasing and decreasing allocations for record-breaking returns.

To get more free stock analysis on fundamentals and technicals, sign up for I/O Fund's free newsletter with gains of up to 403% - Click here.
Subscribe to Free Newsletter

Gains of up to 2,880% from our Free Newsletter.


Here are sample stock gains from the I/O Fund’s newsletter --- produced weekly and all for free!

2,880% on Nvidia

750% on Bitcoin

*as of Nov 20, 2024

Our newsletter provides an edge in the world’s most valuable industry – technology. Due to the enormous gains from this particular industry, we think it’s essential that every stock investor have a credible source who specializes in tech. Subscribe for Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks.

If you are a more serious investor, we have a premium service that offers lower entries and real-time trade alerts. Sample returns on the premium site include 4,490% on Nvidia, 900% on Chainlink, and 1,120% on Bitcoin. The I/O Fund is audited annually to prove it’s one of the best-performing Funds on the market, with returns that beat Wall Street funds.

beth
head bg

Get a bonus for subscription!

Subscribe to our free weekly stock
analysis and receive the "AI Stock: 5
Things Nobody is Telling you" brochure
for free.

More To Explore

Newsletter

https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/Z1-PkpbqstJ98hbJ_SemiconductorStocksExposedToChinaWithTariffsIncoming.jpg?auto=format,compress

Semiconductor Stocks Exposed To China With Tariffs Incoming

Semiconductor stocks will come into focus in 2025 as geopolitical tensions rise. China is likely to retaliate following Trump’s most recent threats of 10% additional tariffs to all Chinese goods. This

December 17, 2024
https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/Z1j8Y5bqstJ98SN8_ShopifyStockIsABlackFridayBeneficiaryThatFacesKeyTestInQ4.jpg?auto=format,compress

Shopify Stock Is A Black Friday Beneficiary That Faces Key Test In Q4

Black Friday and Cyber Monday e-commerce sales broke records again this year, with Adobe pointing out that US sales increased 10.2% YoY to $10.8 billion on Black Friday while Cyber Monday sales rose 7

December 09, 2024
https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/Z0_ToZbqstJ98AmN_Nvidia%E2%80%99sStockHas70%25PotentialUpsideFor2025.jpeg?auto=format,compress

Nvidia’s Stock Has 70% Potential Upside For 2025

Nvidia once again posted a $2 billion beat to consensus revenue estimates in Q3, reporting YoY growth of nearly 94% to over $35 billion in revenue. Data center revenue more than doubled in the quarter

December 02, 2024
https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/Z0SBDq8jQArT1RkS_960x0.jpg?auto=format,compress

Nvidia Stock Is A Buy On Dips Before Blackwell Arrives In 2025

Nvidia’s stock broke to all-time highs recently, trading at $148 in early November and $147 yesterday. The stock has left many investors wondering “what comes next” after the unrelenting, historic sur

November 24, 2024
https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/ZzyXba8jQArT1B7v_960x0.jpg?auto=format,compress

AI Spending To Exceed A Quarter Trillion Next Year

Big Tech’s AI spending continues to accelerate at a blistering pace, with the four giants well on track to spend upwards of a quarter trillion dollars predominantly towards AI infrastructure next year

November 19, 2024
https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/ZzNO3K8jQArT0wUy_PalantirStock-HowHighIsTooHigh_.png?auto=format,compress

Palantir Stock: How High Is Too High?

Palantir proved again in Q3 that it’s undeniably one of the stronger AI software stocks in the market outside of the cloud hyperscalers. The company reported visible AI-driven growth and persisting bu

November 12, 2024
Bitcoin bull market update: December 2022 projection of $75,000 - $132,000 adjusted to $82,000 - $106,000 after reaching $73,757 in March 2024.

Bitcoin Bull Market Intact as Risk Increases

In December 2022, we boldly stated that “Bitcoin is a buy” when it was trading around $17,000. We were positioning for a new bull cycle and projected a target between $75,000 - $132,000. Despite Bitco

November 01, 2024
https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/ZyGyUK8jQArT0Aju_TeslaStock-MarginsBounceBackForAI-Leader.jpg?auto=format,compress

Tesla Stock: Margins Bounce Back For AI-Leader

Tesla is arguably one of the most advanced AI companies in the world, yet its stock is dictated by margins. Over the past three years, Tesla’s average gross profit per vehicle has declined by 60%, fal

October 30, 2024
https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/ZxejEoF3NbkBX11O_PalantirStockIsCrushingItsPeersInAIRevenue.png?auto=format,compress

This Stock Is Crushing Salesforce, MongoDB And Snowflake In AI Revenue

In this article, I break down how Palantir’s AIP is putting it a step above peer Salesforce, MongoDB and Snowflake with visible AI growth, and its undeniable ‘secret sauce’.

October 22, 2024
https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/Zw5myoF3NbkBXdms_Nvidia%2CMag7FlashWarningSignsForStocks.jpeg?auto=format,compress

Nvidia, Mag 7 Flash Warning Signs For Stocks

In this report, my team will address the risks brewing in the market. The strange behavior in the bond market could be signaling that the FOMC has made a policy error. This coupled with key tech stock

October 15, 2024
newsletter

Sign up for Analysis on
the Best Tech Stocks

https://bethtechnology.cdn.prismic.io/bethtechnology/e0a8f1ff-95b9-432c-a819-369b491ce051_Logo_Final_Transparent_IOFUND.svg
The I/O Fund specializes in tech growth stocks and offers in-depth research for Premium Members. Investors get access to a transparent portfolio, a forum, webinars, and real-time trade notifications. Sign up for Premium.

We are on social networks


Copyright © 2010 - 2024