Blogs -Best Bet for Tech Stocks in 2019? Secular IaaS.

Best Bet for Tech Stocks in 2019? Secular IaaS.


February 08, 2019

Beth Kindig

Lead Tech Analyst

If ever there was a growth story in the next 2-3 years, especially during potential economic uncertainty, then infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) is it. This past week, Amazon’s IaaS offering, AWS, reported sales growth of 45% from $5.11 billion to $7.43 billion, with operating income increasing 61% to $2.18 billion up from $1.35 billion. Microsoft’s IaaS offering, Azure, was up 76 percent (same as last quarter) reaching $4 billion in revenue. Microsoft’s overall commercial cloud computing revenue which includes software grew 48 percent to $9 billion. If both companies continue on this trajectory in 2019, then Microsoft will narrow its gap from 3:1 to 2:1 with Amazon.

2018 CLOUD IAAS REVENUES
$26 billion AWS
$10 billion MS

UPDATED PROJECTED 2019 if growth continues at current rate
$16 billion MS
$30 billion AWS

Amazon, Microsoft and Google Revenue Trend Chart

Note: I’ve written quite a bit of analysis over the last few months about the duopoly between Microsoft and Amazon. To quickly summarize, my first analysis discussed the strategic acquisition of Github. My second analysis discussed the great efforts Microsoft has put into become a serious bidder for the Pentagon contract.

Truly, there is plenty of green field for both players. The investment window for the IaaS market is far from over as it took twelve years for the IaaS market to reach $40 billion and it will take only three years to double to $80 million – and this figure is on the low end of estimates.

My newsletter subscribers get this information first. Sign up here.

Here are a few of the projections for this space from various analysts:

  • Amazon’s Cloud Business could reach $71 billion by 2022 with a valuation of $350 Billion (source Jefferies – which tends to be more bullish on AWS than MS).
  • Microsoft’s Cloud Business Could Be Bigger Than Windows by 2021 with $26.4 billion in revenue in 2021 fiscal year vs. $20.3 billion from Windows (source: Keybanc – most estimates on MS are low, which is why there’s still a growth story here)
  • Global cloud IT market will triple between 2015 and 2020 with IaaS being the segment with the largest growth of 27% compared to SaaS growth of 18% (source: Bain and also SoftwareStrategistBlog.com)

Global IT Revenue Chart Growth source: Bain Analysis

IaaS Cloud is Secular

On a micro-level, the tech industry is in a state of transition. Mobile is hitting saturation, social media faces privacy regulations, chip makers are getting hurt in the trade war, and meanwhile, 5G, artificial intelligence, and autonomous vehicles are too nascent to see returns in the near term. This is one reason I continue to hammer on IaaS as a safe, secular bet. Companies are going through a major transition right now by transferring work loads into the cloud.

As these transitions take place, IaaS will be as essential to companies as food, gas and cigarettes are to consumers. The company that has transferred to the cloud cannot exist without budgeting for this operating expense. Meanwhile, the companies who have not transferred to the cloud risk losing on competitive advantages such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and scaling quickly through server virtualization.

As it currently stands, IaaS is Amazon’s largest revenue segment and Microsoft’s fastest growing revenue segment – although there is plenty of addressable market left for both players. Amazon’s capex spending (which includes all capex; not AWS specific) was at $14 billion in 2018 while Microsoft reported capex of $12 billion. One major drawback is that these are not pure play IaaS stocks which introduces risk from other revenue segments. You can read my follow up analysis on 6 pure play cloud stocks here.

Gains of up to 403% from our Free Newsletter.

Here are sample stock gains from the I/O Fund’s newsletter --- produced weekly and all for free!

+344% on Nvidia

+403% on Bitcoin

+218% on Roku

*as of March 15, 2022

Our newsletter provides an edge in the world’s most valuable industry – technology. Due to the enormous gains from this particular industry, we think it’s essential that every stock investor have a credible source who specializes in tech. Subscribe for Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks.

If you are a more serious investor, we have a premium service that offers lower entries and real-time trade alerts. Sample returns on the premium site include 324% on Zoom, 601% on Nvidia, 445% on Bitcoin, and 4-digits on an alt-coin. The I/O Fund is audited annually to prove it’s one of the best performing Funds on the market with returns that beat Wall Street funds. 

More To Explore

Newsletter

Evidence is Building for an Uptrend - Broad Market Analysis

In this last week’s Broad Market Analysis, Knox reviews the evidence building the current uptrend that could extend into Fall 2022. Watch the preview clips taken from I/O Fund’s 1-hour Premium Technic

August 09, 2022

Big Tech Earnings: Microsoft And Alphabet Signal Q2 Could Be A Bottom

Big Tech earnings were off to a solid start last week when Microsoft and Google reported stable revenue growth and margins that are unchanged from recent macro conditions. The strong margins were espe

August 03, 2022

Are We Finally Out of the Bear Market?

Knox continues the Bear Market correction discussion and analyzes FAANG stocks and three other premium stock positions. Watch this clip taken from the 1-hour technical stock analysis below for upcomin

July 28, 2022

Netflix Stock Stronger Than It Seems Following Q2 Earnings

Netflix is trading at a 10-year historic low valuation, which means this is an opportune time to discuss the pros and cons of this stock should there be upside potential.

July 28, 2022

Ad Tech Stock Valuations Historically Low - Q3 2022 Earnings

Beth Kindig looks back at Facebook ($META), the ultimate ad-tech stock between 2012-2018 to answer three important ad tech stock valuation questions.

July 26, 2022

I/O Fund in the Media: Semiconductor Stocks, CHIPS Act, and Why We are Bullish on Bitcoin

Lead Tech Analyst Beth Kindig joins Charles Payne of Fox Business news to discuss the $52B CHIPS Act, FABS Act, opportunities in tech that may be overlooked, and why I/O Fund is bullish on Bitcoin rig

July 19, 2022

Broad Market Analysis: The Bear Market Correction by Knox Ridley

Knox Ridley covers the Bear Market correction in this week’s Premium Stock Market Webinar. He discusses his technical analysis of six premium portfolio stock positions that only paid subscribers can a

July 18, 2022

Apple Vs. The FAANGs (Technical Analysis)

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) became the most valuable company in the world through creating and dominating the smart phone/mobile microtrend. As the majority of the global community went from zero smart p

July 18, 2022

Apple Is Tech’s Best Value Stock

Apple epitomizes what it means to be both a good value stock and a good tech stock with its strong margins, outsized cash flows, stable balance sheet, and a loyal base of customers supporting the bran

July 11, 2022

I/O Fund’s Current View on Bitcoin

In August of 2019 we released our first premium report on Bitcoin. At the time, Bitcoin was trading between $10,000-$11,000, following a bounce greater than 200% in less than a year. We believed Bitco

July 08, 2022

Sign up for Analysis on
the Best Tech Stocks

The I/O Fund specializes in tech growth stocks and offers in-depth research for Premium Members. Investors get access to a transparent portfolio of 30 positions, a private forum, webinars, and real-time trade notifications. Sign up for Premium.

We are on social networks


Copyright © 2010 - 2022
Get Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks