Blogs -Apple is Not a Growth Company Anymore

Apple is Not a Growth Company Anymore


November 01, 2019

author

Beth Kindig

Lead Tech Analyst

I grew critical of Apple earlier this year when it became clear the company would decline in revenue year-over-year, yet investors and analysts alike continued to pump the stock. With yesterday’s earnings report, we have further confirmation that Apple is not a growth company anymore although it continues to trade at growth valuations.

While many celebrated yesterday’s earnings report, there were notable signs of erosion. To start, Apple has lost $5 billion in revenue year-over-year, from $265 billion to $260 billion. This is despite having the “best fourth quarter ever,” according to Tim Cook. The truth is that the EPS was higher due to buybacks.

My analysis in MarketWatch published prior to earnings, pointed out that the iPhone was exposed to macro smartphone saturation. Those numbers showed a deeper decline than overall revenue with a $22 billion decline reported year-over-year.

Although Apple has ceased reporting smartphone unit sales, the numbers reveal there are fewer smartphone units being sold. Moving forward, with the recent release of the iPhone, Apple will contend with a lower average sales price. This is bound to affect smartphone device revenue moving forward, which declined at a rate of 15% year-over-year.

Overview of Mobile Saturation:

The smartphone market contracted to 1.462 billion units in 2017 and to 1.420 billion units last year. While almost 1.5 billion smartphones sales a year globally is substantial, the law of saturation drives down prices. I wrote about the price effects of mobile saturation in March, prior to Apple lowering prices for the first time with the iPhone 11.

China represents about one-third of smartphone penetration compared with the U.S., at one-12th. Pricing wars are evident in Asia, where China’s Huawei has grabbed market share to become the world’s fastest-growing smartphone seller. The company has seen a 66-fold increase from 3 million units sold in 2010.

Samsung may be the true bellwether for mobile, as the company is in first position for total smartphones shipped and is the world’s largest manufacturer of memory chips. In the first quarter, the company reported a 60% drop in operating profits, followed by a 56% decline in the second quarter. Analysts expect another decrease in the third quarter. Smartphone units have been making lower highs and lower lows over the past two years.

Samsung’s disappointing performance hints at the ties between smartphone sales and consumer confidence as China’s confidence index is languishing at a two-year low.

Notably, IDC forecasts the pricing wars will continue with 5G handsets in Asia, as low-cost models are expected to hit the market next year. In the U.S., Latin America and Japan, the average selling price (ASP) of a 5G handset will be around $1,000, while it will be $600 in China.

Don’t Believe the Earnings Beat:

The fiscal Q4 earnings beat is at odds with overall performance. Although profit topped expectations, this is the first time since Tim Cook took over in 2011 that Apple declined in profit in all four quarters of a fiscal year.

The media touts the services revenue as the answer to the iPhone decline. As we saw this year, double digit declines on the segment responsible for $165 billion in revenue (iPhone) is not easily staved off by a revenue segment posting $40 billion per year (services).

If one did not look closer at the numbers, it would easy to think services was a major growth segment. We see the growth was at 18%, which is below the 20% traditional benchmark that defines growth. As of now, this doesn’t appear to be the answer to the gaping iPhone decline. This is proven by the annual decline in overall revenue.

Wearables growth of 55% to $24 billion in revenue is decent. However, again, the iPhone decline was steep enough at $22 billion to wipe out the entire Wearables category.

I had pointed out in a Fox Business News interview prior to earnings that its unlikely lightning strikes twice with the iPhone as it’s not only one of Apple’s best growth drivers historically, but it’s also one of the best growth drivers we’ve seen across the tech industry. This is evident in last year’s smartphone revenue of $165 billion, which I also pointed out will be Apple’s peak year in mobile.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClLBzohNeE0

Note: although I provide an entry price for Apple on Fox Business News, this is something Knox Ridley specializes in and covers as a contributing analyst to our premium site Tech Insider Research. You can catch his detailed technical analysis published on Seeking Alpha next week.

Here is a snapshot of Apple’s performance over the past year. If the stock ticker was not attached to the graph, it would be hard to guess this is the world’s most valuable company.

https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/80c75cb9-5b7e-402d-9c5b-e79877106c27_Revenue-Growth-Top-Segment-for-AAPL.png?auto=compress,format

As most investors know, Apple has plenty of cash. It produces about $50 billion-$60 billion a year in free cash flow and has over $100 billion in cumulative reserves to fund new projects. While analysts are optimistic about many new pivots, these will weigh on margins. This is especially true for Apple TV+, which comes with a high content bill and low subscription revenue, as the OTT streaming service will be bundled for free or priced at $5.

Keep in mind, Apple’s cash reserves are seeing the effects of the buybacks, and Alphabet has now surpassed Apple in cash reserves. Apple has $102 billion compared to Alphabet’s $117 billion. This is due to Apple spending $122 billion on stock buybacks since the beginning of 2018. Alphabet is growing, as well, at a rate of 20% year-over-year.

Analysts who are raising Apple’s price target based on fiscal 2020 cite Apple TV+ revenue as a primary reason with little discussion of the forecast for Apple’s main growth driver. Apple TV+, which will compete with Amazon Prime Video, Netflix and other TV-streaming services, is more likely to cause bottom-line losses in the short term as Verizon is offering the subscription for free while requiring costly original content from headliners such as Oprah. (She doesn’t come cheap.)

In my opinion, these new price targets seem more like an attempt to cover current positions, as the majority of institutions are holding this stock at lower entry points.

Also Read: Apple’s Stock Price is at Inflection Point

EPS not as Relevant Due to Buybacks

Many Apple proponents will use the stock as an income stock, yet the company trades at growth valuations. The buybacks Apple is doing on a consistent basis is alarming for a tech company, who should be innovating with cash reserves rather than propping up the stock price to beat earnings per share.

In the most recent quarter, Apple disclosed it had spent $17.9 billion to buy back 92.6 million shares during the fiscal fourth quarter. During the three prior quarters in the fiscal year, Apple had spent $49.2 billion. There is $78.9 billion remaining in its stock buyback program. The reduced share count this year has helped Apple beat earnings per share of $2.91 with $3.03 reported with fewer outstanding shares as a result of the buyback.

Apple has bought a total of 2 billion shares over the past six years, which brings the shares outstanding to their lowest level since 1999, according to Charlie Bilello, who is also a Seeking Alpha contributor.

https://images.prismic.io/bethtechnology/8990b284-6cf2-43f4-9176-88a103dad972_Apple-shares.png?auto=compress,format

Conclusion:

Apple will be particularly exposed to lower consumer confidence when this occurs. Mobile saturation is already showing its effects with a $22 billion loss in iPhone revenue year-over-year. In fact, the saturation of the iPhone could prove to be one of Apple’s biggest challenges to date, as the company attempts to make many pivots, all of which will add noise to the big picture that mobile’s golden days are behind it. This will not be resolved by a single quarter’s earnings “beat,” nor will it be absorbed by services revenue until at least 2023.

If your investment thesis is to focus on primarily cash reserves and cash flow, while ignoring growth and the leverage of buybacks to boost EPS, then Apple is likely in your portfolio. As a tech analyst, who look towards future growth for the highest gains, this is a company where I am personally on the sidelines and is not a company I can recommend long-term.

A version of this analysis appeared in MarketWatch on October 29th, 2019. It has been updated and lengthened post-earnings.

Gains of up to 2,160% from our Free Newsletter.


Here are sample stock gains from the I/O Fund’s newsletter --- produced weekly and all for free!

2,160% on Nvidia

675% on Bitcoin

*as of Mar 27, 2025

Our newsletter provides an edge in the world’s most valuable industry – technology. Due to the enormous gains from this particular industry, we think it’s essential that every stock investor have a credible source who specializes in tech. Subscribe for Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks.

If you are a more serious investor, we have a premium service that offers lower entries and real-time trade alerts. Sample returns on the premium site include 3,430% on Nvidia, 915% on Chainlink, and 1,020% on Bitcoin. The I/O Fund is audited annually to prove it’s one of the best-performing Funds on the market, with returns that beat Wall Street funds.

beth
head bg

Get a bonus for subscription!

Subscribe to our free weekly stock
analysis and receive the "AI Stock: 5
Things Nobody is Telling you" brochure
for free.

More To Explore

Newsletter

I/O Fund reports a 210% cumulative return, surpassing top tech ETFs and institutional portfolios with a 35% gain in 2024. Source: YCharts and InsiderMonkey.

I/O Fund Reports 210% Cumulative Return -- Ranking Above Wall Street's Best

In 2024, I/O Fund posted a 35% return, significantly outperforming popular tech ETFs, which recorded an 8% return over the same period. On a cumulative basis, the results translate to a remarkable 219

March 31, 2025
Chart showing retail investor losses compared to institutional investors, highlighting market volatility and the impact of high-frequency trading.

The Harsh Truth: Retail Investors Take the Brunt of Market Losses

Retail investors face significant disadvantages in the stock market, often underperforming institutional investors by a wide margin. Studies show that high-frequency trading firms dominate market acti

March 28, 2025
NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPU unveiled at GTC 2025, revolutionizing AI and HPC with unprecedented efficiency and power.

NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra Fuels AI & HPC Innovation, Efficiency and Capability  

NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell Ultra GPU, unveiled at NVIDIA GTC 2025, is transforming AI acceleration and high-performance computing (HPC). Designed for the “Age of Reasoning,” these cutting-edge GPUs del

March 21, 2025
Futuristic AI data center featuring NVIDIA’s GB200 Superchip, designed for AI superclusters, high-performance computing, and generative AI training with up to 27 trillion parameters.

NVIDIA’s GB200s for up to 27 Trillion Parameter Models: Scaling Next-Gen AI Superclusters

Supercomputers and advanced AI data centers are driving the AI revolution, enabling breakthroughs in deep learning and large-scale model training. As AI workloads become increasingly complex, next-gen

March 21, 2025
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang discusses AI market dominance at GTC 2025, addressing demand concerns and future growth projections.

Nvidia CEO Predicts AI Spending Will Increase 300%+ in 3 Years

Nvidia has traversed choppy waters so far in 2025 as concerns have mounted about how the company plans to sustain its historic levels of demand. At GTC, Huang threw cold water on many of the Street’s

March 20, 2025
AI data centers are driving the AI revolution, but their soaring energy demands pose sustainability challenges. With power consumption projected to rise 160% by 2030, data centers are integrating brown, clean, and renewable energy sources. Goldman Sachs predicts 40% of new capacity will come from renewables, but can solar, wind, and nuclear sustain AI’s 24/7 operations? Explore how hyperscalers are evolving their energy strategies to meet growing AI demands.

AI Data Center Power Wars: Brown vs. Clean vs. Renewable Energy Sources

AI data centers are at the heart of the AI revolution, but their massive energy demands raise critical questions. With power consumption expected to grow 160% by 2030, data centers are turning to a mi

March 19, 2025
Natural gas pipelines supporting AI data centers as energy demand surges, with Texas and Louisiana emerging as key hubs for AI infrastructure growth.

Why Gas Pipelines Are the Unsung Heroes of AI Data Center Expansion

Natural gas is emerging as the backbone of AI data center expansion, with demand expected to reach up to 6 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. As AI-driven infrastructure surges, data centers are turn

March 19, 2025
Alibaba’s AI revenue growth accelerates, but remains significantly lower than U.S. tech leaders like Microsoft, highlighting China’s competitive AI landscape.

Alibaba Stock: China Has Low AI Revenue Compared to United States

Alibaba’s AI-driven cloud revenue is surging with six consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth. However, its AI earnings remain a fraction of what U.S. tech giants report, with Microsoft leading at

March 14, 2025
By 2030, AI data centers may consume 9% of U.S. electricity as GPU power usage surges, with Nvidia’s GB200 reaching 2,700W. To ensure sustainability, data centers are adopting long-term PPAs and exploring high-efficiency energy sources like nuclear and SOFCs.

Unlocking the Future of AI Data Centers: Which Fuel Source Reigns Supreme in Efficiency?

AI data centers are projected to consume 9% of U.S. electricity by 2030, driven by soaring GPU power demands, with Nvidia’s GB200 reaching 2,700W—a 300% increase over previous generations. As AI racks

March 13, 2025
Tesla faces declining deliveries in 2024 and mounting challenges in 2025, with sharp sales drops in China and Europe, margin pressures, and shifting growth targets.

Tesla Has a Demand Problem; The Stock is Dropping 

Tesla’s growth faces major hurdles in 2025 after its first annual decline in deliveries. Sales are plunging in key markets like China and Europe, while margins remain under pressure. Optimism around r

March 07, 2025
newsletter

Sign up for Analysis on
the Best Tech Stocks

https://bethtechnology.cdn.prismic.io/bethtechnology/e0a8f1ff-95b9-432c-a819-369b491ce051_Logo_Final_Transparent_IOFUND.svg
The I/O Fund specializes in tech growth stocks and offers in-depth research for Premium Members. Investors get access to a transparent portfolio, a forum, webinars, and real-time trade notifications. Sign up for Premium.

We are on social networks


Copyright © 2010 - 2025