Blogs -Nvidia Was Up 235% In 2023, Don’t Expect It To Continue

Nvidia Was Up 235% In 2023, Don’t Expect It To Continue

September 26, 2023


Beth Kindig

Lead Tech Analyst

This article was originally published on Forbes on Sep 22, 2023,05:45am EDT

It is our stance at the I/O Fund that the stock market is not logical, rather it’s sentimental. There is no logical explanation for a stock to go up 100% or more —— only to fall 40% or more in the matter of a couple of months. Fundamentals do not change this quickly, but sentiment does. In the simplest terms, sentiment is driven by how fear and greed interrelate with supply and demand. However, the way to track sentiment to protect capital is much more complex and needs to combine fundamental analysis with technical analysis

This roller coaster ride is most evident in tech stocks, which happens to be our specialty. Therefore, we openly and frequently discuss with our free newsletter readers the importance of layering into a leading position, setting up buy plans ahead of time, and also the importance of taking gains once the technical and fundamentals get stretched.

We’ve had unwavering conviction in Nvidia’s AI story since November of 2018. In fact, it was our leading position going into 2023 and our AI allocation of 45% exceeded Stanley Druckenmiller at 29%, meanwhile, Druckenmiller was celebrated for having a leading AI portfolio. The Street is also taking credit for being early to Nvidia, which was a latecomer recommendation in March of 2023. Ark often discusses AI as a leading trend, yet almost missed this AI leader entirely. We point this out because we provided Nvidia as a stock tip for free, repeatedly, with top tier analysis delivered on Forbes and through our free newsletter, with our own capital backing the research.

The I/O Fund is a strong proponent of offering quality information at the free level. We offer top tier analysis every single week in our free newsletter, and we do not know any other top-performing portfolio that offers this at the free level in a consistent manner.

Unfortunately, free information tends to come from those who are unproven and may not be very good investors at all, while those with a proven track record keep trades close to their chest.

Not only do we actively manage every position we own and send real-time trade alerts, but we discuss openly and frequently our thoughts along the way. Our track record on Nvidia over the past 1-2 years looks like this:

I/O Fund Nvidia Activity 2021

Source: I/O FUND

The single biggest issue individual investors face is a lack of quality information that is earlyconsistent, and comes with ultimate transparency around position sizing, portfolio performance, and how to handle sell-offs.

It is this last point that we’d like to discuss with you today “how to handle sell-offs.” We were considered crazy for buying Nvidia in 2022 and we are considered crazy for trimming in 2023. Yet, in what is rare transparency for the financial world, we are sharing with you our plans with this leading portfolio position.

Sign up for I/O Fund's free newsletter with gains of up to 221% - Click here

Price Analysis

On August 28th, we put out our price analysis on NVDA. We offered two general scenarios that we see playing out, which are still very much in play today. Here is what we said back then…

“There are two general Elliott Wave counts I’m using that represent both of these gap possibilities.

  • Blue – this count has the 2022 bear market as the first leg in a large degree correction. That would make 2023 the corrective leg, with the final drop on the horizon, which would likely retest the October lows.
  • Red – this count has us in a 4th wave correction within a larger 5 wave uptrend. This would make this current dip a buying opportunity as we push towards the $560-$590 region next.

The lowest I would allow this correction to go and still keep the red count valid would be the $340 region. If we break below $340, then the odds shift that the gap from Nvidia’s last earnings call was in fact an exhaustion gap. Our next move would be to set up downward targets to accumulate Nvidia for the long haul.”

Also, in the last report, we were looking for a breakout above $480 to signal that a low was in and we were heading towards our first overhead target around $545. We did see a breakout, but it failed to hold, which was a warning of more volatility to come. This coupled with some heavy distribution volume above the $440 price level, had us decide to take more gains in Nvidia.

Nvidia Trade Alert

Real-time trade alert offered by I/O Fund

My prior analysis still holds – as long as we hold $340, Nvidia has the potential for one more swing higher into year-end/early next year. However, we do not believe current prices are ideal for a long-term, buy and hold mindset. Patience will likely pay off in the long run. So, it will be up to each investor to decide if they want to take on the risk of potentially getting one more high.

For the I/O Fund, the reward is not worth the risk which is why we have decided to trim. Our last buy at $410 in July is our last buy and we do not have any more buys planned until we see a resolution. There are two other AI-related stocks that we like better in the near-term, and when we enter these, we will notify our premium members with real-time trade alerts.

This remains my primary perspective as long as we hold the $340 support. Below there, and the top is likely in.

Nvidia Chart

Source: Tech Insider Network

When we Plan to Trim next

Nvidia is a core holding of ours, so we will likely never close the position, as long as the story and tech trend remain intact. However, we do strongly believe in taking gains, reducing risk, and targeting lower levels for a better cost basis. That being said, we believe we are approaching one of these moments. Even though we broke a key trendline today, we expect a bounce to occur soon. If this bounce is a corrective bounce that fails to reclaim key overhead levels, we will trim our position even more.

Nvidia Trim Chart Plan

Source: Tech Insider Network

Every Thursday at 4:30 pm Eastern, the I/O Fund team holds a webinar for premium members to discuss how to navigate the broad market, as well as various stock entries and exits. We offer trade alerts plus an automated hedging signal. The I/O Fund team is one of the only audited portfolios available to individual investors. Learn more here.

Insider Selling is Elevated Over the Past Month

There has been an excessive level of insider selling by the CEO, Jensen Huang. So far, he has sold over $110,000,000 worth of shares over the last 3 weeks. Regarding insider activity, there are many reasons insiders sell, which may have nothing to do with the business. However, when you the see executives within a company, like the CEO, it’s worth paying attention to. Since June, we’ve seen about $175,000,000 worth of NVDA sold.

Nvidia Insider Trading Chart



In conclusion, our broad market work suggests that a complex topping process is forming. Many sectors and stocks have likely topped while some big tech names look like they have the potential for one more high into the end of the year.

Insider activity and institutional selling point toward another high being less likely. If we do get that second high, our plan is to trim more. Until the $340 support breaks, NVDA still has the potential for that last swing higher. Regardless, we believe being patient will pay off for those looking to buy a great company at a great a price. We are also being patient for when we add back to our position and feel it’s better to be defensive at the moment.

If you own Nvidia stock, or are looking to own NVDA, we encourage you to attend our weekly premium webinars, held every Thursday at 4:30 pm EST. Next week, we will discuss NVDA, as well two other AI plays that we will likely buy next – what our targets are, where we plan to buy, as well as where we plan to take gains.

I/O Fund Portfolio Manager, Knox Ridley, contributed to this analysis

Recommended Reading:

Gains of up to 403% from our Free Newsletter.

Here are sample stock gains from the I/O Fund’s newsletter --- produced weekly and all for free!

+344% on Nvidia

+403% on Bitcoin

+218% on Roku

*as of March 15, 2022

Our newsletter provides an edge in the world’s most valuable industry – technology. Due to the enormous gains from this particular industry, we think it’s essential that every stock investor have a credible source who specializes in tech. Subscribe for Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks.

If you are a more serious investor, we have a premium service that offers lower entries and real-time trade alerts. Sample returns on the premium site include 324% on Zoom, 601% on Nvidia, 445% on Bitcoin, and 4-digits on an alt-coin. The I/O Fund is audited annually to prove it’s one of the best performing Funds on the market with returns that beat Wall Street funds. 


More To Explore


Cybersecurity Image

The Strongest Cybersecurity Stocks In Q3

Cybersecurity stocks have performed well in 2023, rising about +26.5% YTD, with the security backdrop boosted by an increase in data breaches and ransomware.

December 04, 2023
Nvidia's Fiscal Q3 Earnings Preview: The Pressure Is On

Nvidia’s Fiscal Q3 Earnings Preview: The Pressure Is On

Nvidia has surged this year with 241% gains YTD, which has more than doubled the returns of the FAANGs. This is no small feat considering it’s widely understood Big Tech is holding up the broader mark

November 27, 2023
Apple Building

Apple’s Services Growth Flywheel Continues To Strengthen

Apple’s Services segment was one of the brightest spots in a relatively in-line earnings report at the beginning of November, topping an $85 billion run rate as growth jumped back to the high double-d

November 21, 2023
Tesla Sells 33% Of Vehicles Below Average Cost, BYD Pulls Ahead

Tesla Sells 33% Of Vehicles Below Average Cost, BYD Pulls Ahead

BYD more than doubled Tesla’s China sales in October as Tesla’s sales slipped on a month-over-month basis, while NEV startups showed strong sales numbers across the board. China’s new energy vehicle (

November 14, 2023
Solar Panels

Solar Stocks Still Searching For A Bottom

Solar is arguably one of the market’s most sold-off industries at the moment, with the Invesco Solar ETF falling more than 42% YTD as the industry struggles to find growth in a high-rate environment.

November 07, 2023
Five Stocks (Not Seven) Can Lead to New Highs

Five Stocks (Not Seven) Can Lead to New Highs

The majority of other sectors are confirming a continuation of the 2022 bear market, meanwhile, a handful of big tech names, with outsized weighting in the major indexes, suggest that they want to go

October 27, 2023
Big Tech Stocks: Q3 Earnings Preview

Big Tech Stocks: Q3 Earnings Preview

Earnings season has officially kicked off, with Big Tech headlining a busy week next week: Microsoft and Google report on Tuesday, followed by Meta on Wednesday, and Amazon on Thursday. Big Tech stock

October 22, 2023
Apple Building

AI Could Be Apple’s Next Chapter

After Nvidia added $750 billion in value this year on the backs of surging AI chip demand, investors are quickly searching for the next trillion-dollar AI winner. AI is the best investment opportunity

October 18, 2023
AI is the Best Investment Opportunity of our Lifetime: Video Interview

AI is the Best Investment Opportunity of our Lifetime: Video Interview

Real Vision invited Beth Kindig back for a candid interview with Raoul Pal for a one-hour discussion on how to position for AI. As discussed in the interview, the reason that AI will be the best inves

October 06, 2023
The Next Market AI Will Disrupt Is Cybersecurity

The Next Market AI Will Disrupt Is Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity is one of the highest costs that enterprises face at 12% of IT budgets on average, and this cost is rapidly rising. While a company can lay off staff or reduce marketing and R&D expenses

October 04, 2023

Sign up for Analysis on
the Best Tech Stocks
The I/O Fund specializes in tech growth stocks and offers in-depth research for Premium Members. Investors get access to a transparent portfolio of 30 positions, a private forum, webinars, and real-time trade notifications. Sign up for Premium.

We are on social networks

Copyright © 2010 - 2023
Get Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks