Evidence is Building for an Uptrend - Broad Market Analysis
August 09, 2022
Knox Ridley
Portfolio Manager
In last week’s Broad Market Analysis, Knox reviews the evidence building the current uptrend that could extend into Fall 2022. Watch the preview clips taken from I/O Fund’s 1-hour Premium Technical Analysis Webinar on 08/04 with written commentary from Knox himself.
S&P 500 Technical Overview
Knox explains what needs to hold and break, starting with S&P 500 basics.
Breaking the Bear Market Trend Channel and the 200-day Simple Moving Average
Until the bear market trend channel breaks and the 200-day SMA is reclaimed, pressure should remain down.
Will this be the New Start of the Uptrend?
A Larger Corrective
Positive Signs from Small Caps and the NASDAQ 100
We see positive signs in tech and small caps, but like the rest of the broad market, we only have 3 waves up, off the low. Until we see 5, this uptrend should be met with caution
Semiconductors and Indications that a Bigger Low May Be in Place
Semiconductor stocks are the strongest and most telling. The daily RSI has reclaimed the bear market resistance and we have a clean 5 waves up off the low. Semis have been leading this market through 2022, so they could be telling us that a more significant low is developing.
Signs from the U.S. Dollar
The USD keeps providing more evidence of a bigger low being put in, which is bullish for equities.
Warning Signs From Bonds and Crude
Crude Oil and Rates look like they want to make one more move higher. This can imply that a new shock to the inflation story could be brewing - China/Taiwan?
Bear Market Analysis Conclusion: Evidence is Mixed
In conclusion, the evidence is mixed, with Semis being the biggest case for a low being put in, and crude being the biggest evidence that the selling isn’t over. Watch the full technical webinar when you sign up for Premium.
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About I/O Fund Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley
Knox Ridley began consulting on portfolios in 2007 and is an experienced growth investor in both bull and bear markets, which is hard to find these days. As the portfolio manager of the I/O Fund, he beat the top-performing funds on Wall Street in both 2020 and in 2021. His real-time trade notifications to premium subscribers have garnered 27 entries with over 100% gains in the last two years. Knox began his career as an ETF wholesaler in 2007 before becoming a portfolio consultant for large RIAs, FAs, and Institutional accounts. He is very keen on macro trends and is trained in Fibonacci Trading, Elliott Wave theory, as well as Gann Cycles. He also uses classical technical analysis to manage risk and identify great risk/reward setups. Knox is known for increasing and decreasing allocations for record-breaking returns.
Please note: The I/O Fund conducts research and draws conclusions for the Fund’s positions. We then share that information with our readers. This is not a guarantee of a stock’s performance. Please consult your personal financial advisor before buying any stock in the companies mentioned in this analysis.
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