Loading...

5-Year Anniversary Sale - Our Deepest Discount of the Year!

Unlock up to $275 OFF the Advanced Plan - built to give stock investors an edge in tech. Offer ends May 27th at midnight!

Blogs -Evidence is Building for an Uptrend - Broad Market Analysis

Evidence is Building for an Uptrend - Broad Market Analysis


August 09, 2022

author

Knox Ridley

Portfolio Manager

In last week’s Broad Market Analysis, Knox reviews the evidence building the current uptrend that could extend into Fall 2022. Watch the preview clips taken from I/O Fund’s 1-hour Premium Technical Analysis Webinar on 08/04 with written commentary from Knox himself.

S&P 500 Technical Overview

Knox explains what needs to hold and break, starting with S&P 500 basics.

Breaking the Bear Market Trend Channel and the 200-day Simple Moving Average

Until the bear market trend channel breaks and the 200-day SMA is reclaimed, pressure should remain down.

Will this be the New Start of the Uptrend?

A Larger Corrective

Positive Signs from Small Caps and the NASDAQ 100

We see positive signs in tech and small caps, but like the rest of the broad market, we only have 3 waves up, off the low. Until we see 5, this uptrend should be met with caution

Semiconductors and Indications that a Bigger Low May Be in Place

Semiconductor stocks are the strongest and most telling. The daily RSI has reclaimed the bear market resistance and we have a clean 5 waves up off the low. Semis have been leading this market through 2022, so they could be telling us that a more significant low is developing.

Signs from the U.S. Dollar

The USD keeps providing more evidence of a bigger low being put in, which is bullish for equities.

Warning Signs From Bonds and Crude

Crude Oil and Rates look like they want to make one more move higher. This can imply that a new shock to the inflation story could be brewing - China/Taiwan?

Bear Market Analysis Conclusion: Evidence is Mixed

In conclusion, the evidence is mixed, with Semis being the biggest case for a low being put in, and crude being the biggest evidence that the selling isn’t over. Watch the full technical webinar when you sign up for Premium


More about I/O Fund Premium Stock Investing Services

Premium Members currently enjoy all 7 Premium benefits below.

  1. Premium library of institutional-level research and analysis, including fundamental stock analysis and advanced market signals on technicals and macro analysis.
  2. Weekly Webinars on advanced market signals and broad market, plus quarterly portfolio reviews on Long-Term Buy and Hold tech stocks.
  3. Technical Analysis on stocks and Broad Markets with charts on all major US markets, analysis of inflation and growth, as well as 60 global markets to help us focus on risk/reward for entries and position our portfolio based on the macro-environment.
  4. An Active Forum made up of a community of like-minded investors with robust conversations including both fundamental and tech product analysis.
  5. A completely Transparent Portfolio made up of long-term buy and hold positions, crypto, and Long/Short Momentum positions.
  6. Trade Alerts are sent directly to your phone via SMS and email.

NEW! Automated Hedge with advanced signals to help spot approaching risk in the markets, with a 67% win rate going back to 2003 with only 40 signals triggered.

Sign Up


About I/O Fund Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley

Knox Ridley began consulting on portfolios in 2007 and is an experienced growth investor in both bull and bear markets, which is hard to find these days. As the portfolio manager of the I/O Fund, he beat the top-performing funds on Wall Street in both 2020 and in 2021. His real-time trade notifications to premium subscribers have garnered 27 entries with over 100% gains in the last two years. Knox began his career as an ETF wholesaler in 2007 before becoming a portfolio consultant for large RIAs, FAs, and Institutional accounts. He is very keen on macro trends and is trained in Fibonacci Trading, Elliott Wave theory, as well as Gann Cycles. He also uses classical technical analysis to manage risk and identify great risk/reward setups. Knox is known for increasing and decreasing allocations for record-breaking returns.

Loading...

More To Explore

Newsletter

Microsoft stock up as Azure tops AWS, Google Cloud in Q3 2025

Microsoft Stock Surges After Q3 2025 Earnings: What Separates Azure from AWS, Google Cloud

Microsoft stock jumped after Q3 2025 earnings as Azure emerged as the only major cloud platform to accelerate growth this quarter — a rare feat amid macro pressures. Azure’s 35% constant currency grow

May 16, 2025
Bitcoin price chart signaling potential top despite favorable crypto news

Why Bitcoin’s Bull Run May Be Nearing a Top Despite Pro-Crypto Tailwinds

Since calling the Bitcoin bottom near $16,000 in late 2022, the I/O Fund has maintained a disciplined, contrarian approach — issuing 13 buy alerts before Bitcoin surged above $100,000. Now, signs sugg

May 09, 2025
S&P 500 hits key 2025 target as bond market and consumer trends signal rising volatility and shifting stock-bond correlation.

2025 Market Outlook: Why Stocks and Bonds Are Signaling More Volatility

As the S&P 500 reaches a key bounce target, troubling signs in bonds and consumer behavior suggest this market rally may be on thin ice. I/O Fund’s Knox Ridley explains why volatility may intensify an

May 02, 2025
Illustration of an investor holding an umbrella, shielding from stock market volatility.

The Impact of Tariffs on the Stock Market: Q1 Preview

Rising tariffs are injecting significant uncertainty into the stock market, triggering daily volatility and forcing analysts to revise earnings estimates. Our Q1 preview dives into the potential impac

April 25, 2025
Aerial view of Tesla's new Model Y Juniper parked in lines. Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.

Tesla Stock Faces Recalibration of Growth Expectations

Tesla’s stock is now facing a recalibration of expectations after Q1’s delivery report missed by a wide margin. Q1’s analyst consensus has gone from $25.98B at the start of the year to $23.97B in earl

April 17, 2025
an illustration of a government building, constrained by heavy chains, with a volatile stock chart displayed above.

The Fed Can’t Save This One: Why Bonds May Break the Stock Market in 2025

In early 2025, as markets rallied to new highs, we warned that divergence across key sectors signaled a looming correction. Now, with all major indexes in a technical bear market and bond market dysfu

April 11, 2025
Silhouette illustration of Larry Ellison, Oracle's CTO and executive chairman.

Oracle Stock Outlook: Revenue Could Double by FY2029, yet Targets Seem Lofty

Late in 2024, Oracle outlined an ambitious plan to nearly double its revenue by fiscal 2029, hinging on long-term growth in enterprise AI and cloud spending. Oracle sets itself apart from its hypersca

April 04, 2025
Graphic showing I/O Fund's "210% Cumulative Returns" with financial charts and a world map in the background.

I/O Fund Reports 210% Cumulative Return -- Ranking Above Wall Street's Best

In 2024, I/O Fund posted a 35% return, significantly outperforming popular tech ETFs, which recorded an 8% return over the same period. On a cumulative basis, the results translate to a remarkable 219

March 31, 2025
Illustration of an investor burdened by the weight of market downturn

The Harsh Truth: Retail Investors Take the Brunt of Market Losses

Retail investors face significant disadvantages in the stock market, often underperforming institutional investors by a wide margin. Studies show that high-frequency trading firms dominate market acti

March 28, 2025
Illustration of a futuristic AI data center featuring NVIDIA’s GB200 Superchip

NVIDIA’s GB200s for up to 27 Trillion Parameter Models: Scaling Next-Gen AI Superclusters

Supercomputers and advanced AI data centers are driving the AI revolution, enabling breakthroughs in deep learning and large-scale model training. As AI workloads become increasingly complex, next-gen

March 21, 2025
newsletter

Sign up for Analysis on
the Best Tech Stocks

https://bethtechnology.cdn.prismic.io/bethtechnology/e0a8f1ff-95b9-432c-a819-369b491ce051_Logo_Final_Transparent_IOFUND.svg
The I/O Fund specializes in tech growth stocks and offers in-depth research for Premium Members. Investors get access to a transparent portfolio, a forum, webinars, and real-time trade notifications. Sign up for Premium.

We are on social networks


Copyright © 2010 - 2025