Evidence is Building for an Uptrend - Broad Market Analysis
August 09, 2022
Knox Ridley
Portfolio Manager
In last week’s Broad Market Analysis, Knox reviews the evidence building the current uptrend that could extend into Fall 2022. Watch the preview clips taken from I/O Fund’s 1-hour Premium Technical Analysis Webinar on 08/04 with written commentary from Knox himself.
S&P 500 Technical Overview
Knox explains what needs to hold and break, starting with S&P 500 basics.
Breaking the Bear Market Trend Channel and the 200-day Simple Moving Average
Until the bear market trend channel breaks and the 200-day SMA is reclaimed, pressure should remain down.
Will this be the New Start of the Uptrend?
A Larger Corrective
Positive Signs from Small Caps and the NASDAQ 100
We see positive signs in tech and small caps, but like the rest of the broad market, we only have 3 waves up, off the low. Until we see 5, this uptrend should be met with caution
Semiconductors and Indications that a Bigger Low May Be in Place
Semiconductor stocks are the strongest and most telling. The daily RSI has reclaimed the bear market resistance and we have a clean 5 waves up off the low. Semis have been leading this market through 2022, so they could be telling us that a more significant low is developing.
Signs from the U.S. Dollar
The USD keeps providing more evidence of a bigger low being put in, which is bullish for equities.
Warning Signs From Bonds and Crude
Crude Oil and Rates look like they want to make one more move higher. This can imply that a new shock to the inflation story could be brewing - China/Taiwan?
Bear Market Analysis Conclusion: Evidence is Mixed
In conclusion, the evidence is mixed, with Semis being the biggest case for a low being put in, and crude being the biggest evidence that the selling isn’t over. Watch the full technical webinar when you sign up for Premium.
More about I/O Fund Premium Stock Investing Services
Premium Members currently enjoy all 7 Premium benefits below.
- Premium library of institutional-level research and analysis, including fundamental stock analysis and advanced market signals on technicals and macro analysis.
- Weekly Webinars on advanced market signals and broad market, plus quarterly portfolio reviews on Long-Term Buy and Hold tech stocks.
- Technical Analysis on stocks and Broad Markets with charts on all major US markets, analysis of inflation and growth, as well as 60 global markets to help us focus on risk/reward for entries and position our portfolio based on the macro-environment.
- An Active Forum made up of a community of like-minded investors with robust conversations including both fundamental and tech product analysis.
- A completely Transparent Portfolio made up of long-term buy and hold positions, crypto, and Long/Short Momentum positions.
- Trade Alerts are sent directly to your phone via SMS and email.
NEW! Automated Hedge with advanced signals to help spot approaching risk in the markets, with a 67% win rate going back to 2003 with only 40 signals triggered.
About I/O Fund Portfolio Manager Knox Ridley
Knox Ridley began consulting on portfolios in 2007 and is an experienced growth investor in both bull and bear markets, which is hard to find these days. As the portfolio manager of the I/O Fund, he beat the top-performing funds on Wall Street in both 2020 and in 2021. His real-time trade notifications to premium subscribers have garnered 27 entries with over 100% gains in the last two years. Knox began his career as an ETF wholesaler in 2007 before becoming a portfolio consultant for large RIAs, FAs, and Institutional accounts. He is very keen on macro trends and is trained in Fibonacci Trading, Elliott Wave theory, as well as Gann Cycles. He also uses classical technical analysis to manage risk and identify great risk/reward setups. Knox is known for increasing and decreasing allocations for record-breaking returns.
Gains of up to 403% from our Free Newsletter.
Here are sample stock gains from the I/O Fund’s newsletter --- produced weekly and all for free!
+344% on Nvidia
+403% on Bitcoin
+218% on Roku
*as of March 15, 2022
Our newsletter provides an edge in the world’s most valuable industry – technology. Due to the enormous gains from this particular industry, we think it’s essential that every stock investor have a credible source who specializes in tech. Subscribe for Free Weekly Analysis on the Best Tech Stocks.
If you are a more serious investor, we have a premium service that offers lower entries and real-time trade alerts. Sample returns on the premium site include 324% on Zoom, 601% on Nvidia, 445% on Bitcoin, and 4-digits on an alt-coin. The I/O Fund is audited annually to prove it’s one of the best performing Funds on the market with returns that beat Wall Street funds.
More To Explore
Newsletter
Cybersecurity Stocks: CrowdStrike Soars While Palo Alto And Zscaler Fall
This year has led to a split landscape for cybersecurity stocks, with two of cybersecurity leaders up more than 20% YTD while others are negative YTD. In the past, we’ve discussed the resiliency of th
The Magnificent 7 Are Falling Like Dominos; Only 3 Remain
The Magnificent 7 of 2023 have now become 2024’s Magnificent 3: Nvidia, Meta and Amazon. Of these, Nvidia’s saw a stellar start to the year as shares have gained nearly 60% YTD due to the GPU leader’s
Nvidia Stock Gained $1.5 Trillion To Surpass The FAANGs - Apple Is Next
Today, Nvidia surpassed a $2 trillion market cap compared to Apple’s $2.8 trillion. The company has surpassed Amazon, Google, Tesla, Meta and Netflix. The only one left standing is Apple and we have 2
Palantir Stock Surges From Artificial Intelligence Platform
Palantir’s Q4 earnings confirmed an acceleration in its US commercial business as it closed out its first GAAP profitable year. Shares are reflecting the optimism surrounding Palantir’s commercial seg
AI Driving Acceleration For Big 3 Cloud Stocks
Big Tech’s participation in the market’s push to all-time highs is becoming increasingly narrow, with Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon serving as the primary contributors to 2024’s rally.
Apple Can’t Save This Tech Rally
In this article, I lay out both the bull and bear cases for 2024 and beyond. Interestingly, both are calling for a level of volatility in 2024 that will, at least, retrace the rally we’ve seen since N
Coinbase, Robinhood: Examining The Impact Of Spot Bitcoin ETFs
The SEC approved nearly a dozen spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 10 in what was heralded as a “watershed” moment for the crypto industry, opening the door for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without
Tesla Q4 Earnings Preview: Margins Likely To Slip Again
Tesla’s Q4 earnings are on tap after the market close on January 24, closing up a year in which aggressive price cuts helped the automaker top Q4 delivery estimates reach a new record and narrowly bea
Social Media Stocks: One Metric Shows Meta’s Clear Leadership
Social media stocks Meta (META), Pinterest (PINS), and Snapchat (SNAP) enjoyed strong gains in 2023 as the broader ad market stabilized and fundamentals improved. Social media ad spend is expected to
Five Top Stocks Of 2023: Year In Review
The Nasdaq 100 capped off 2023 with a return of +53.8%, erasing 2022’s losses and recording its highest annual return since 1999. This year had countless winners, but 5 stocks surprised and shocked th