Why the S&P 500 Shrugged Off the Iran War — and What Could Finally Break the Rally 

On February 28th, the U.S. went to war with Iran, and the market was handed the kind of shock it hasn't contended with for years. The conflict set off a chain reaction across the region: an ongoing supply disruption in essential commodities, a 30-year Treasury yield pushed to 5.2%, and a CPI print of 4.2%, more than double the Fed's target. By most measures, this was the most uncertain backdrop since COVID. 

And yet the S&P 500 fell just 9.7% in an orderly, almost polite decline, then staged the second-most aggressive snapback in its history. The recovery that followed trailed only the 1980 bear market. Most investors were left asking the same question: how could so many market-moving headlines move the market so little? 

The answer is one we have written about for years. Decades of studies have reached the same conclusion: news, on its own, has almost no lasting effect on markets. One of the most famous is “What Moves Stock Prices?” by Harvard and MIT economists Cutler, Poterba, and Summers. Their goal was to model how news and macroeconomic events might predict stock market movements. To their surprise, they found that only about one-third of major price swings could be linked to identifiable news events.   

News only matters insofar that it can affect underlying market forces that correlate with market movements. In the case of the Iran War, that underling force is global liquidity dynamics, and sentiment. Neither has broken down in any meaningful way. As far as equities were concerned, the Iran War was a liquidity and sentiment event, and on both counts the trend held. 

This is the heart of what we do at the I/O Fund: filter out the noise and focus on the few forces that drive price. In this report, we break down the global liquidity dynamics that explain why equities shrugged off the headlines, and why this was the only metric that mattered over the past few months.  

From there, we examine the deteriorating breadth beneath the surface, conditions that often precede a turn in the trend. Finally, we look at the historic institutional positioning building at the highs, which tends to mark a meaningful floor or ceiling depending on how price resolves. 

For now, we are leaning defensive — not because the trend has broken, but because the risk-reward has become less forgiving, considering the weight of evidence. We remain ready to pivot, and add exposure if the market invalidates that view with a decisive move higher, all of which is discussed in detail in this report.  

The Real Story Behind the S&P 500 Pullback: A Historic Supply Shock 

When the Iran War kicked off on February 28th, the broad market accelerated its correction, finally bottoming at -9.7% into the March 30th low. By market norms, that was a minor dip, and it bore little resemblance to the severity of the geopolitical events still in play. 

The war closed the Strait of Hormuz, locking up roughly 20% of the world's oil supply for nearly four months. Crude ran from $66 a barrel to $119, then settled into an $80 to $117 range that has held until this week. Roughly one-third of the world's fertilizer and about 20% of its natural gas were choked off as well, producing the largest commodity shock since the 1970s. 

That supply shock filtered into prices. Year-over-year CPI moved from 2.4% before the war to 4.2% as of May 30th, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury climbed to 5.2%, a level we have not seen since 2007. That climb may not sound dramatic but consider the backdrop - the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio in 2007 was roughly 63%, versus about 125% today. The more we must pay just to cover the interest on our debts, the more we have to borrow to do it, and that new borrowing adds even more interest on top, so the cost keeps feeding on itself; a self-reinforcing loop where debt grows faster than we can keep up, and ultimately ends in a debt spiral and/or yield curve control enforced by the FED. 

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If we dig deeper into the inflation data, stripping out energy does not make the problem go away. Core CPI rose 2.8%, its third consecutive month of acceleration. That tells us the inflation pressure is not simply a function of soaring energy prices; it signals an economy running hot. Unsurprisingly, the Fed's tone has turned more hawkish, with officials signaling a willingness to raise rates if inflation does not subside. As of today, the market is pricing a 70% chance of a rate hike by year-end. 

The chart shows a greater than 70% probability that the FOMC will raise rates by September. Source: CMR Group

And still, against every one of these macro risks, the S&P 500 corrected just 9.7% and now sits 9% higher than where it stood when the war began. This fact has forced news pundits to scramble to find a reason based on current events, while failing to look at the underlying force the market is taking its cues from. 

How Liquidity Drives Markets and the S&P 500 

Liquidity is one of the most overused and least understood terms in markets. At its core, it refers to the availability of capital in the system, specifically how easily businesses, consumers, and financial institutions can access cash or credit. 

In today's global economy, liquidity is inseparable from debt dynamics. It is not the creation of new debt that dominates capital flows, but the ability to roll over existing obligations. Roughly three of every four global financial transactions relate to refinancing, not expansion, and nearly 80% of global lending now requires collateral, typically high-quality, low-volatility assets like U.S. Treasuries. 

This creates a framework where liquidity, and by extension risk appetite, is dictated by how cheaply and easily borrowers can refinance without overcollateralizing. The more capital that process frees up, the more can rotate into risk-on assets like Bitcoin. 

A number of variables influence liquidity conditions: Central bank policy, Fiscal spending, The Treasury General Account (TGA), Federal Reserve repo operations, Broad equity market performance, Bond market volatility 

Collectively, these forces determine whether capital and confidence flow into the system or are pulled out. But among all of them, the most powerful and persistent driver of global liquidity is the U.S. Dollar. 

Roughly 64% of global debt is denominated in dollars, which means foreign borrowers who tapped cheap U.S. capital must keep sourcing dollars to service that debt. When the dollar weakens against their local currencies, less local currency is needed to meet those dollar obligations, freeing up capital to chase higher-yielding risk assets. 

This inverse relationship between the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and risk assets is easy to see in the chart below. The black line is a composite of Bitcoin and Ethereum's price action. Crypto sits at the margin of risk assets, and it is usually where liquidity undulations hit first. The green line is DXY, an inverse proxy for global liquidity. As shown, major trends in risk assets and the dollar tend to move opposite one another. 

This chart compares Bitcoin price (black line) with the U.S. Dollar Index (green line) over time. It shows a clear inverse relationship: when the dollar weakens, crypto prices tend to rise, and when the dollar strengthens, crypto markets decline.  

Oil Trade and the Flow of U.S. Dollars 

Global liquidity is a powerful force, and the Iran War threatened it. The danger for equities was never the war itself, or even the spike in oil prices. The danger was what those events could have triggered, which was a sharp reduction in global liquidity. 

Roughly 80% of all oil transactions globally are priced in U.S. dollars, a constant for decades that continually pushes dollars into the financial system. When the Strait of Hormuz closed, we did not just lose 20% of the world's oil. We lost the much-needed flow of dollars that those oil purchases would have circulated. 

That is why the Treasury Secretary announced that several countries in the region, including the UAE, were requesting dollar swap lines. The message here is that there were not enough dollars in the region to satisfy demand. 

This is how a currency crisis can begin. Because most regional debt is denominated in dollars, debtors must acquire dollars to service their interest payments. If they cannot access them, or if demand outstrips supply, they are forced to sell more of their local currency to source the dollars they need. That selling pressure feeds on itself. 

While we are seeing cracks in the global liquidity cycle, so far, an extreme imbalance has not materialized, and DXY confirms it. Since the war began, the DXY is up only 1.8%, nowhere near enough to trigger a liquidity crisis. But the setup is worth watching closely. DXY has just made its first higher high and higher low since January 2025, and the large corrective pattern that began in 2022 appears complete, which suggests a sizable bounce is the next likely move. A break above the key level would trigger a vertical push higher and sap global liquidity in a dangerous way. 

This chart shows the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) with key technical levels, Fibonacci retracements, and wave structure. Price is forming a potential breakout pattern after establishing higher highs and higher lows. 

Crude Oil Setup: A Key Signal for Market Risk 

Interestingly, the same setup is in play in crude oil. The move up off the December 2025 low is a clean three-wave advance, and what has followed is another three-wave move lower that appears to be in its final swings. 

Note how volume fades the lower we go, with momentum sitting at one of the most extreme oversold readings in crude's history. Sellers are exhausting themselves, and momentum does not stay this depressed for long. If the bounce holds under $87, the pattern points to one more drop toward $67 to $70 to complete it. If instead we push above $87, it signals a new uptrend is likely underway, which would not be good for risk assets. 

This chart shows crude oil futures (CL1!) with a clear downtrend and corrective wave structure. Price is approaching key support levels around $67–$70, with weakening momentum and declining volume suggesting potential seller exhaustion. A break below support could extend the decline, while a rebound would signal a possible trend reversal and renewed upside risk for inflation and equities. 

The market is pricing in a transitory move for global oil. In other words, now that the Straight if Hormuz is open, we will get right back to peak production. This is an impossibility based on the nature of active oil rigs turning off temporarily, or what is known as shut in. To bring these rigs back on-line can take anywhere from 2 weeks – to a year, depending on how complex the equipment is. Furthermore, more than 80 energy assets, totaling ~$56 billion in damages. These repairs, as noted, could take up to 2 years.  

What’s keeping oil prices suppressed is the 1.1 – 1.3 million barrels being pushed onto the global economy from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Considering the 300-million-barrel hard floor that must be maintained in the SPR, or else it risks failure, that estimates an inability to suppress oil prices past mid-July, at best.  

If this smooth and complex transition is unable to happen, the setup in the chart will likely trigger higher, sapping the global dollar demand further and greatly affecting global liquidity.  

Record Market Divergences Beneath the Surface 

These setups sit within two macro factors that feed directly into global liquidity. But liquidity is not the only warning light flashing. We are also witnessing some of the most extreme divergences on record. 

When markets move in unison, it usually marks a strong trend that lasts for many months. But markets rarely top and bottom all at once. There is almost always one market running ahead of the one everyone is watching, and that leader can offer early clues about the next major move. 

Right now, three key sectors with a history of leading the broad market are refusing to confirm the move higher. 

The most striking is the gap between Semiconductors and Financials. Financials topped in January and sit roughly 3% below their 2026 high, even as Semiconductors trade 43% above their prior 2026 high. That is the widest divergence between these two sectors on record. 

This chart compares semiconductor stocks (blue) and financials (black), showing a sharp divergence in performance. Semiconductors have risen approximately 43%, while financials have declined about 3%, marking one of the widest gaps between these sectors on record. 

The economically sensitive Transportation sector is also flashing the same warning. It’s down about 10% while semiconductors are up 43%.  

This chart compares semiconductors (blue) and transportation stocks (black), showing a sharp divergence in performance. Semiconductors have gained about 43%, while transportation has declined roughly 10%, one of the largest gaps on record. 

The only other time these two sectors diverged this sharply was July 2024, when transports were down 10% and semiconductors had ripped 88% higher. That divergence marked a one-year top in semis and gave way to a 48% drawdown into the April 2025 low. 

This chart compares semiconductors (blue) with the Dow Jones Transportation Index (black), showing a dramatic divergence. Semiconductors have surged roughly +88%, while transportation stocks have fallen about 10%. 

The most concerning signal, though, comes from the equal-weighted Mag 7 index. It rarely triggers, but when it does, it has a perfect record of flagging trend reversals going back to 2021. Today, the equal-weighted Mag 7 topped in October 2025 while the S&P 500 has continued higher, the widest divergence ever recorded between the two. 

This chart compares the S&P 500 (top panel) with the equal-weight Mag 7 index (bottom panel). While the S&P 500 continues to trend higher, the equal-weight index has lagged and peaked earlier, signaling a growing divergence. 

Furthermore, of the 11 major sectors that make up the U.S. economy, only three sit above their February 2026 highs: technology, industrials, and real estate. What is masking the broader weakness is semiconductors.  As of this week, 33 semiconductor companies in the S&P 500 account for ~18% of the index's total weight, more than double the sector's exposure at the dot-com peak. 

While divergences and extreme concentration are a warning that precedes almost every volatility event, as long as they persist, these dislocations can go on for much longer than most investors realize.  

An important clue to the size of the next move can be seen by excessive institutional positioning that has been happening over the last few weeks.  For reference, institutions tend to create highs and lows through offloading supply or creating demand with their size.  

The below chart comes from VolumeLeaders, and tracks large institutional block trades in SPY. Over the last 2 weeks, we’ve seen the 1st 4th and 10th largest trades in SPY’s long history. So, in three trades, $13 Billion dollars was either sold or bought. As you can see, these large block trades tend to happen around meaningful turning points in market trends. 

This chart shows SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with highlighted large institutional block trades around recent highs. Several of the largest transactions on record appear clustered near current price levels, suggesting heavy positioning by institutional investors. 

But it’s not just SPY. If we go back 60 days, all major broad market broad market ETFs are seeing a growing number of historic institutional trades, signaling that they are positioning for a large move.  

This image shows is derived from VolumeLeader data. The top 10 largest trades in SPY, IVV, QQQ, SMH, VOO history.  

Because of the size and frequency of these trades, they are either creating a meaningful ceiling or floor for equities. Whatever direction the market breaks from the consolidation range they are creating, will determine the next swing, which will likely be quite notable due to the level of activity in this region. 

We can see these two moves in the potential chart patterns in play in the broad market. Since the 2022 low, the bull market pattern has been characterized with large and frequent swings in both directions, with an obvious upward bias. This pattern best represents an ending diagonal pattern. 

Based on the current price data, there are two scenarios I am tracking: 

• Green – We are in a 2nd wave dip, which should hold 7238. We’ll then see a breakout to new highs on expanding volume and momentum, signaling that we are in the 3rd wave of this swing. This would be a continuation of the current melt-up with targets in the 9000s for SPX. If this plays out, then it tells us that institutions have been accumulating at these highs in preparation for this push higher. 
• Blue – We break below 7238 and we will test 6965 next. If we break below this region in a meaningful way, we are likely in a very large 4th wave with targets between 6000 – 5700 SPX, that will likely find a low into Fall of this year. If these supports break, it will indicate that institutions have been distributing at the highs.  

This chart shows the S&P 500 (SPX) with a structured Elliott Wave pattern and key Fibonacci levels. Price is testing a critical resistance zone after a strong advance, with defined support levels below. 

Conclusion: 

In conclusion, since 1985, the NASDAQ-100 has fallen into a 10%+ correction roughly every 13 months. Since the new bull market started in October of 2022, that cadence has compressed to every 8. We are seeing volatility increase in frequency. 

You would think this would alarm investors, yet we are seeing some of the most extreme sentiment readings being backed with recent margin debt readings coming in at a new all-time high of $1.3 Trillion, which is roughly 4% of GDP and a 36% YoY increase in debt to buy. 

The reason for this is because of how investors have been trained to invest since the 2018 Christmas Eve Selloff. Markets always come back, and usually in an aggressive V-Shaped fashion. 

No example of this new norm has been more evident than the recent push to new highs. In fact, on April 15th, the NASDAQ-100 made history. A correction that had taken 103 days to bottom at roughly -12% on March 30th was erased in just 11 days. This was the most distorted drawdown-to-recovery ratio on record, with the index climbing back nearly nine times faster than it fell. Since 2022, the average drawdown is 46 days, while recoveries are just 35. Markets are climbing back faster than they fall, which is shaping investors' behavior. 

This kind of resilience is characteristic of secular bull markets, and the current one is among the longest and most profitable since 1900, now well into a roughly 17-year run as the sentiment cycle enters its final stages.  

This chart shows the long-term S&P 500 (SPX) across multiple decades, highlighting major secular bull market phases. Each period is marked with its duration and total return, illustrating how long-term market cycles are characterized by sustained upward trends punctuated by shorter-term corrections. 

We do expect volatility to continue its frequency, but the secular uptrend likely has a bit further to run. That is precisely what makes this environment so hard to navigate: investors are taking on record levels of debt to buy speculative securities, even as the warning signals that tend to precede volatility events continue to build.  

As long as supports hold and liquidity stays stable, we expect the trend to continue higher. However, the sentiment pattern we are in is characterized by large and frequent swings in both directions. If the market decides to take the more volatile blue path outlined above, we will view this as another excellent buying opportunity in an ongoing secular bull market. On the other hand, if the market decides to continue higher, we will abandon our defensive posture and buy the breakout. Given the level of institutional activity in this range, whatever move comes next is likely to be substantial. 

Our firm specializes in marketing positioning, with a disciplined approach to liquidity and sentiment. Our approach helps us distinguish between selloffs worth buying, trends worth respecting, and risks that warrant a more defensive stance. 

Since launching in May 2020, our team has delivered a cumulative return of 326% - which would rank us #1 if we were a hedge fund and #3 if we were an ETF or mutual fund. We apply our market and risk framework to high-conviction AI and technology positions. For example, our firm owned four of the ten best-performing large-cap stocks during the historic April 2026 rally – on top of an already strong cumulative. 

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