Disney Earning Preview: Disney Plus Ranks High On App Store
February 07, 2020
Beth Kindig
Lead Tech Analyst
This article was originally published on Forbes on Feb 3, 2020,05:07pm EST
Disney earnings tomorrow will report subscriber numbers for its OTT-streaming service tomorrow in what is perhaps the most anticipated earnings report of the week. One day after the launch, Disney announced that Disney Plus had attracted 10 million subscribers. App store data collected in the remaining part of the quarter suggests that Disney Plus continued to outperform.
Disney Plus Beat out Social Media on Many Days
When looking at the top-ranking free apps, Disney’s media entertainment app knocked out the #1 viral sensation TikTok on a few days and ranked higher than Instagram, YouTube, Facebook Messenger, Whatsapp and Snapchat on many other days.
Disney Plus ranking Dec 6th on iOS. Disney Plus ranked as number one in both free and top-grossingon Android on Dec 6th - APPFOLLOW.IO
Across top-grossing apps, Disney Plus held its own against the top-grossing gaming industry with many high-ranking days on Android and the iOS app store. This is rare as the majority of downloads for over-the-top (OTT) media apps come from OTT players, such as Roku, Amazon Fire, Google Chromecast or Apple TV.
According to Apptopia, a provider of app intelligence, the Disney Plus app ranked number one every day for the first four weeks following its launch in both the App Store and Google Play.
Disney Plus outranks competing OTT apps during the first four weeks post-launch. Apptopia estimates 22 million downloads during this time span. - HTTPS://APPTOPIA.COM
While App Store data cannot guarantee an earnings beat, the app store ranking most certainly doesn’t hurt Disney’s chances for a strong earnings report tomorrow. Analysts are looking for either 20 million or 25 million, depending on the consensus source.
Netflix had highlighted search terms in their earnings report to prove the popularity of their programming. Interesting enough, according to Google, Disney Plus was the top trending search term in 2019, showing the popularity of the overall service as compared to any one show in particular.
Disney Plus was a top trending search in 2019, as reported by Google. - GOOGLE.COM
Ahead of Disney Earnings: Bullish Analyst Reports
For Disney’s earnings tomorrow, analysts are predicting adjusted earnings of $1.47, according to FactSet. This represents a decline from $1.84 per share a year ago. Estimates for fiscal Q1 2020 revenue are at $20.77 billion, up from $15.33 billion, according to FactSet. The software platform, Estimize, has an adjusted earnings consensus of $1.49 a share and revenue consensus of $21.18 billion.
Sign up for I/O Fund's free newsletter with gains of up to 403% - Click here
There is a string of analysts who have published positive notes on Disney. Rosenblatt Securities raised subscriber estimates for Disney+ to 25 million users by the end of the first quarter in 2020, up from 21 million. He calculated the penetration at 43% in households without children and points towards the popularity of Baby Yoda in The Mandalorian as an indication of the reach. (Baby Yoda also claimed a top search spot on Google in 2019).
Bank of America released a note at the end of December that stated Disney’s estimate for FY 2024 guidance of 60 to 90 million subscribers appears to be low. Their price target is $168 with a buy rating.
Amazon Prime, not Netflix, is at Risk
Many analysts wonder if Disney Plus will eat market share from Netflix. Instead, Amazon should be concerned as the Prime Video app may be pushed out as the number two streaming app as Disney’s user base grows. According to Apptopia’s data, over the first four weeks, Disney+ beat out Prime Video with total hours spent in-app.
Amazon Prime Now reported subscriber numbers of 150 million, yet failed to be ranked in the Top 20 most ranked shows. This includes Prime’s top hit The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. This suggests that many of Prime Now’s subscribers may have the app downloaded as part of their Prime delivery service, yet spend little time in the app compared to competitors.
Meanwhile, two of Disney’s Marvell titles were ranked in the top 20 in both 2018 and 2019.
Once Disney proves itself on subscriber numbers, the next challenge will be to convince subscribers with free promotions to pay for the service. The upcoming task for the global media powerhouse will be to release enough consistent hits, like The Mandalorian, to keep up the monthly active user numbers. Quality is clearly not an issue for Disney, yet quantity could be.
Mastering high retention, low churn and viral mechanics will be a new set of skills for Disney, who has primarily specialized in theater releases and theme parks.
Theme park attendance in Hong Kong during the political unrest may affect earnings. The coronavirus and closure of the Shanghai theme park during the busy New Year holiday will also affect earnings next quarter in fiscal Q2 2020. Analysts may overlook these setbacks for now with the main focus being on Disney Plus.
Get a bonus for subscription!
Subscribe to our free weekly stock
analysis and receive the "AI Stock: 5
Things Nobody is Telling you" brochure
for free.
More To Explore
Newsletter
Why Bitcoin’s Bull Run May Be Nearing a Top Despite Pro-Crypto Tailwinds
Since calling the Bitcoin bottom near $16,000 in late 2022, the I/O Fund has maintained a disciplined, contrarian approach — issuing 13 buy alerts before Bitcoin surged above $100,000. Now, signs sugg
2025 Market Outlook: Why Stocks and Bonds Are Signaling More Volatility
As the S&P 500 reaches a key bounce target, troubling signs in bonds and consumer behavior suggest this market rally may be on thin ice. I/O Fund’s Knox Ridley explains why volatility may intensify an
The Impact of Tariffs on the Stock Market: Q1 Preview
Rising tariffs are injecting significant uncertainty into the stock market, triggering daily volatility and forcing analysts to revise earnings estimates. Our Q1 preview dives into the potential impac
Tesla Stock Faces Recalibration of Growth Expectations
Tesla’s stock is now facing a recalibration of expectations after Q1’s delivery report missed by a wide margin. Q1’s analyst consensus has gone from $25.98B at the start of the year to $23.97B in earl
The Fed Can’t Save This One: Why Bonds May Break the Stock Market in 2025
In early 2025, as markets rallied to new highs, we warned that divergence across key sectors signaled a looming correction. Now, with all major indexes in a technical bear market and bond market dysfu
Oracle Stock Outlook: Revenue Could Double by FY2029, yet Targets Seem Lofty
Late in 2024, Oracle outlined an ambitious plan to nearly double its revenue by fiscal 2029, hinging on long-term growth in enterprise AI and cloud spending. Oracle sets itself apart from its hypersca
I/O Fund Reports 210% Cumulative Return -- Ranking Above Wall Street's Best
In 2024, I/O Fund posted a 35% return, significantly outperforming popular tech ETFs, which recorded an 8% return over the same period. On a cumulative basis, the results translate to a remarkable 219
The Harsh Truth: Retail Investors Take the Brunt of Market Losses
Retail investors face significant disadvantages in the stock market, often underperforming institutional investors by a wide margin. Studies show that high-frequency trading firms dominate market acti
NVIDIA’s GB200s for up to 27 Trillion Parameter Models: Scaling Next-Gen AI Superclusters
Supercomputers and advanced AI data centers are driving the AI revolution, enabling breakthroughs in deep learning and large-scale model training. As AI workloads become increasingly complex, next-gen
NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra Fuels AI & HPC Innovation, Efficiency and Capability
NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell Ultra GPU, unveiled at NVIDIA GTC 2025, is transforming AI acceleration and high-performance computing (HPC). Designed for the “Age of Reasoning,” these cutting-edge GPUs del